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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Really hoping I can get summer to last well into Sep to keep my pool open. Got 2 more pool parties lined up. Also throwing a Bills opener party. Getting the new fence installed next weekend. 

Season opener or home opener?

It's quite a while before the first home game.  Will almost be lake effect season!

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11 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Season opener or home opener?

It's quite a while before the first home game.  Will almost be lake effect season!

Season opener, I always try to attend the home opener. The first 2 are away which sucks. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Real early thoughts would be about the same as last year. 5-10% above normal snowfall with colder temps then last year. KBUF checked out, but ROC/Cuse did not. I'm pretty such the tug and southern tier of WNY had 5-10% above snowfall averages as well. It's such a high level of variance with LES events. Solar Min/Neutral-Weak Enso so looks good at this time. If you get a colder then average winter, the majority if not all the time you will get above average snowfall. With 2 huge moisture sources, its virtually a lock to get more snow when you get more cold. 

I'd be happy with that as long as we dont have 35 thaws like we did last year...

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I didn’t think there was any way this storm could miss me. Unreal.  It’s like the parting of the Red Sea. West side of roc is in a moderate drought now. ☹️

887B7DE8-7560-4307-9119-FED6CA49DDF4.thumb.gif.3f11963a60ba2e24d723a1267f6b84e4.gif

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12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I didn’t think there was any way this storm could miss me. Unreal.  It’s like the parting of the Red Sea. West side of roc is in a moderate drought now. ☹️

887B7DE8-7560-4307-9119-FED6CA49DDF4.thumb.gif.3f11963a60ba2e24d723a1267f6b84e4.gif

Lol, was just looking at the radar and noticing that!! 

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Nice to see a low end severe threat today.  You don't see an area wide Special Weather Statement all that often from the NWS.  It's hard to tell if this will pan out as we have this remnant MCS type complex still moving through with the "Front" now right on its heels and almost merging with it.  I was really hoping we could get several hours of heating and sun this morning to prime the pump, oh well.  Will be interested to see how this plays out but I'm thinking the Fingerlakes and Southern Tier take the brunt.  

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17 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Nice to see a low end severe threat today.  You don't see an area wide Special Weather Statement all that often from the NWS.  It's hard to tell if this will pan out as we have this remnant MCS type complex still moving through with the "Front" now right on its heels and almost merging with it.  I was really hoping we could get several hours of heating and sun this morning to prime the pump, oh well.  Will be interested to see how this plays out but I'm thinking the Fingerlakes and Southern Tier take the brunt.  

There were some good storms out your way yesterday too. Good see the cloud tops from here. 

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There were some good storms out your way yesterday too. Good see the cloud tops from here. 

They were relatively tame near the lake, but looks like a Tornado warning around SYR.

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Most constant thunder and lightning I've seen since I've moved to West Seneca. Flashes literally every 3 seconds at most. Storm looks pretty intense on radar, surprised its not severe. 

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1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Most constant thunder and lightning I've seen since I've moved to West Seneca. Flashes literally every 3 seconds at most. Storm looks pretty intense on radar, surprised its not severe. 

It looks like it really hit its peak and elongated right over you. Nice!  

It’s just getting here now as a nice rain. I miss thunder though

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What a stormy pattern for the lower lakes. If I hadn’t got shafted so much these last few days this might one of the stormiest periods that I’ve personally experienced in many years. Places down near Geneseo and into the fingerlakes have seen round after round of storms for days.  

We usually just get a line or day of storms followed by an air mass change. It’s very cool to be locked into this persistent pattern of convection where the atmosphere reloads and destabilizes on a very fast return cycle. 

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11 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

What a stormy pattern for the lower lakes. If I hadn’t got shafted so much these last few days this might one of the strormiest periods that I’ve personally experienced in many years. Places down near Geneseo and into the fingerlakes have seen round after round of storms for days.  

We usually just get a line or day of storms followed by an air mass change. It’s very cool to be locked into this persistent pattern of convection where the atmosphere reloads and destabilizes on a very fast return cycle. 

Sure is a stormy pattern, picked up close to an inch of rain yesterday and another 0.84" this morning in less than an hour with those storms. Definitely much needed as my lawn is totally brown. Looks like we could get some more storms this evening and overnight tonight. 

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4 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Sure is a stormy pattern, picked up close to an inch of rain yesterday and another 0.84" this morning in less than an hour with those storms. Definitely much needed as my lawn is totally brown. Looks like we could get some more storms this evening and overnight tonight. 

Hopefully those lake breezes will help out today. 

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There's been some chatter that the early indications are more of the same with high latitude blocking over Greenland to continue for several months...it might just be why some are indication a colder than average October and near to slightly below November. 

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47 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

There's been some chatter that the early indications are more of the same with high latitude blocking over Greenland to continue for several months...it might just be why some are indication a colder than average October and near to slightly below November. 

That would be terrible. A colder than normal lake before we have the chance for any snow. My dream winter would be colder than average Nov-Feb and a switch to warmer then average in March. We haven't had that in quite awhile. 2013-2014 maybe? That was a great winter. I'm all about seasons in seasons. 

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50 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That would be terrible. A colder than normal lake before we have the chance for any snow. My dream winter would be colder than average Nov-Feb and a switch to warmer then average in March. We haven't had that in quite awhile. 2013-2014 maybe? That was a great winter. I'm all about seasons in seasons. 

That is definitely one thing that we do not have much of anymore...seasons in seasons...this summer has been an exception and maybe winter will act similarly. 

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8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That is definitely one thing that we do not have much of anymore...seasons in seasons...this summer has been an exception and maybe winter will act similarly. 

Last winter we were right around average, just a lot of extremes.

2018-2019 temps.png

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That would be terrible. A colder than normal lake before we have the chance for any snow. My dream winter would be colder than average Nov-Feb and a switch to warmer then average in March. We haven't had that in quite awhile. 2013-2014 maybe? That was a great winter. I'm all about seasons in seasons. 

I ran these numbers a few years ago, and IIRC there was no correlation between Lake Erie surface temp deviation from mean on October 1 and November 1, and seasonal snowfall deviation from mean. Lake Erie cools down and heats up efficiently because it's so shallow, so a "warm lake" in October might be a "cold lake" by late November or early December and vice versa.

Even the October 2006 storm wasn't so much the result of a warm lake. It was +2F on the morning of the storm, but the lake temps have been warmer the last three years with no snow. The huge delta-t was due far more to the anomalous cold air aloft than a warm lake, which suggests that a cold October is something snow lovers would want.

(I didn't do the same analysis on Lake Ontario because of the effect of upwelling on surface temps, but I suspect that there would be a stronger correlation.)

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46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Last winter we were right around average, just a lot of extremes.

2018-2019 temps.png

I guess I should have backed up...summers have gone well into fall and winters have gone well into spring...we basically had no spring this year and has been as such for few years now. 

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8 hours ago, WNash said:

I ran these numbers a few years ago, and IIRC there was no correlation between Lake Erie surface temp deviation from mean on October 1 and November 1, and seasonal snowfall deviation from mean. Lake Erie cools down and heats up efficiently because it's so shallow, so a "warm lake" in October might be a "cold lake" by late November or early December and vice versa.

Even the October 2006 storm wasn't so much the result of a warm lake. It was +2F on the morning of the storm, but the lake temps have been warmer the last three years with no snow. The huge delta-t was due far more to the anomalous cold air aloft than a warm lake, which suggests that a cold October is something snow lovers would want.

(I didn't do the same analysis on Lake Ontario because of the effect of upwelling on surface temps, but I suspect that there would be a stronger correlation.)

What data set did you use? Back into the 1940s or just the last 10-20 years. There is definitely a correlation between colder than normal winters and above normal snowfall. I like keeping the lake warm and then getting hit with a big event like Nov 2014. The delta ts help the lake effect become extremely strong. October 2006 didn't require a warmer then average lake as the lake temps on average during that time for the year are extremely high. (60s) Just needed a once every 40 year cold air mass to come by with a perfectly setup flow and moisture. As soon as the lake freezes my wintertime fun is basically over. Synoptic just doesn't do it for me. 

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17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What dataset did you use? Back into the 1940s or just the last 10-20 years. There is definitely a correlation between colder than normal winters and above normal snowfall. I like keeping the lake warm and then getting hit with a big event like Nov 2014. The delta ts help the lake effect become extremely strong. October 2006 didn't require a warmer then average lake as the lake temps on average during that time forthe year are extremely high. 60s)ust needed a once every 40 year cold airmass to come by with a perfectly setup flow and moisture. As soon as the lake freezes my wintertime fun is basically over. Synoptic just doesn't do it for me. 

Colder than normal winters definitely are related to lake snow, but temperature variance at the beginning of October and November saw no relationship. I used the KBUF lake temp page charts for means and daily values. I'll look through old hard drives to see if I can find my analysis, but it's not difficult -- only requires about 200 data points.

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Lmao buffalo crew!!! Almost 5" of rain in the Kenmore and amherst with several major roadways closed including parts of the 190 and the 90 and no mention of it? I mean if this isn't the poster child for where did this come from I'm not sure what is!

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12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Lmao buffalo crew!!! Almost 5" of rain in the Kenmore and amherst with several major roadways closed including parts of the 190 and the 90 and no mention of it? I mean if this isn't the poster child for where did this come from I'm not sure what is!

“Only” 2.3” of rain here overnight (all from 3AM to 5AM). Finding numerous reports of 4-5 inches near Blackrock/Riverside area of Buffalo up to the South Grand Island Bridge. Wow is all I can say. There is flooding literally everywhere. Niagara Falls Blvd underwater with multiple stranded cars as well as reports of stranded vehicles all over the city.  

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1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

“Only” 2.3” of rain here overnight (all from 3AM to 5AM). Finding numerous reports of 4-5 inches near Blackrock/Riverside area of Buffalo up to the South Grand Island Bridge. Wow is all I can say. There is flooding literally everywhere. Niagara Falls Blvd underwater with multiple stranded cars as well as reports of stranded vehicles all over the city.  

I couldn't believe the flooding where Katie Alexander was reporting in front of 5 guys on the Blvd...it was so deep at one point water was clearing the median...unreal rainfall amounts in such a short period

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