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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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21 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yeah, finally got some light rain this morning.  I'll see what the rain gauge has in it when I get home.  Still looked like dry under some of the bigger trees though so it certainly wasnt much.  

Only picked up .20" yesterday.

Looks like a much better chance today.  The Atmosphere is conditionally unstable with some tall skinny CAPE, not much shear but pretty juicy.  

Capture.thumb.PNG.68d5079dc3a62b72992f0c532445cd69.PNG

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1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

nope...falling apart, you can literally see the lake breeze blowing a hole in it.

Well it's back together now and looking strong! Looks like a bow echo is forming. 

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Mesoscale Discussion 1674
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2019

   Areas affected...central and northern NY...north-central PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081558Z - 081730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for strong to locally severe gusts
   (45-60mph) will probably increase through midday and into the early
   afternoon as a squall line moves from western into central and
   northern NY.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line over western NY as of
   1150am EDT.  The 7am Buffalo raob showed meager buoyancy and
   relatively weak westerly flow from just above the surface through
   300mb.  Surface heating has occurred this morning with temperatures
   on the NY Mesonet rising into the upper 70 to lower 80s degrees F
   immediately east of the squall line.  KIAG measured a 40kt gust at
   1039am.  The NY Mesonet has up until recently only observed 33mph at
   3 sites thus far.  However, the NY Mesonet Batavia site very
   recently observed a measured gust of 47mph. 

   RAP forecast soundings show several hundred J/kg MLCAPE developing
   by early afternoon across central NY.  As the mid-level shortwave
   trough over Ontario and the lower Great Lakes progresses eastward,
   storm intensity is forecast to increase aided in part by the
   associated forcing for ascent and diurnal destabilization.  Isolated
   wind damage owing to gusts ranging from 45-55mph (locally up to
   60mph) is possible.

mcd1674 (1).gif

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Warning issued..

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Jefferson County in central New York...
  Cayuga County in central New York...
  Oswego County in central New York...

* Until 300 PM EDT..

* At 150 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Oswego to near Lodi, moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Watertown, Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fort
  Drum, Stony Point, Pulaski, Clayton, Central Square and Weedsport.

 This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 near exit 40.
 Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 51.

 

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Think we got a small hole in the line as it was quite mild with gusts maybe to 40. No hail & rain was just moderate. 

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Down here around Onondaga Hill it blew through probably 20 minutes ago now. It was a blustery little front that now has backed off to a trickle of rain and a slight breeziness.

 

The temps behind that are very nice to my tastes. 60's now around  here.

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17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

As storms moved over the lake earlier today.

Maia-in-Sunset-Bay.jpg?w=853%26h=480%26c

That looks like the tidal wave from the movie day after tomorrow!

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High Res meso models show some lake effect bands firing up overnight off Huron and Georgian Bay.  Tis the season.  Just about 2 months of summery weather left and then its game on.  I'm already getting excited thinking about fall and the first flakes. 

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16 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

High Res meso models show some lake effect bands firing up overnight off Huron and Georgian Bay.  Tis the season.  Just about 2 months of summery weather left and then its game on.  I'm already getting excited thinking about fall and the first flakes. 

Waterspout season! :)

Bills are going to be good this year too, I need a lake effect snow home game. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Waterspout season! :)

Bills are going to be good this year too, I need a lake effect snow home game. 

i'm surprised that what happened during the indy game hasnt happened more often, or that snow games don't happen more often in general. Then again, maybe i've just stopped watching after thanksgiving for most of the past 20 years...

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17 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

i'm surprised that what happened during the indy game hasnt happened more often, or that snow games don't happen more often in general. Then again, maybe i've just stopped watching after thanksgiving for most of the past 20 years...

Well snow only occurs late Nov (Rare) into December. In that timeframe there are 4-5 games in which 2-3 are at home. Those games happen in a 3 hour window on Sunday afternoon. To get everything to line up perfectly is really rare. If the stadium moves downtown we will likely see that decrease substantially. It will be extremely rare as the stadium right now is in a good location for several lake effect events per year. 

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Wayne county really got blasted by some potent storms late this afternoon. I definitely did not expect that but I guess it makes sense with such an anomalous cold pool during mid August. It certainly appears like Lake Ontario aided in the storms in someway (frictional convergence, higher dew point air, etc). 

They were hit by several stronger cells before this loop started too!  Im mad I didn’t capture it sooner. 

Anyone out there to verify rainfall amounts or hail?  

014624B1-7CF2-414D-9B48-5502DB1A3777.thumb.gif.3d5530abb730304dea9aa078f332329e.gif

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Beautiful October morning out there.

Crisp air, brisk NW breeze and blue skies with puffy cumulus and roving lake effect showers coming through.

 

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Anyone have any advice in regards to fence options. Got quoted for Pine at $6600, vinyl at $7900, Cherry at $8200. I'm heavily leaning towards vinyl as their is virtually no maintenance. Does anyone have any recommendations? The wood you have to stain every 2 years which cost $100-200 in materials and quite a bit of time and a wood fence last half as long as a vinyl does. 

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Anyone have any advice in regards to fence options. Got quoted for Pine at $6600, vinyl at $7900, Cherry at $8200. I'm heavily leaning towards vinyl as their is virtually no maintenance. Does anyone have any recommendations? The wood you have to stain every 2 years which cost $100-200 in materials and quite a bit of time and a wood fence last half as long as a vinyl does. 

I had cedar at my last house and the only maintenance that was required was fixing wind and tree damage. It will grey with time if its not sealed which was fine. My neighbor had vinyl and was constantly losing entire sections to wind damage. If you're in an open area be careful of vinyl with wind. If you go with the pine or cherry get a sprayer, it'll take you only a couple hours to treat. 

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35 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I had cedar at my last house and the only maintenance that was required was fixing wind and tree damage. It will grey with time if its not sealed which was fine. My neighbor had vinyl and was constantly losing entire sections to wind damage. If you're in an open area be careful of vinyl with wind. If you go with the pine or cherry get a sprayer, it'll take you only a couple hours to treat. 

My buddy does fences and said the Wood and Vinyl are both good up to 90 MPH. We live in a neighborhood, everyone has been suggesting me to get vinyl. Can't make up my mind as I like the look of wood more. 

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Lake Effect Snow warnings are back.

 

One year ago, the National Office of the National Weather Service eliminated Lake Effect Snow warnings to help simplify the alert process.

 

Starting this snow season, the warnings are being brought back after listening to concerns from people like you.

 

The Cleveland Office of the National Weather Service confirmed with First Warning Weather on Monday it will use the polygon system to help pinpoint areas that will be most affected by lake effect snow

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Lake Effect Snow warnings are back.

 

One year ago, the National Office of the National Weather Service eliminated Lake Effect Snow warnings to help simplify the alert process.

 

Starting this snow season, the warnings are being brought back after listening to concerns from people like you.

 

The Cleveland Office of the National Weather Service confirmed with First Warning Weather on Monday it will use the polygon system to help pinpoint areas that will be most affected by lake effect snow

So is this just for the Cleveland office or across all the NWS offices? 

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So happy they are bringing it back. It made no sense at all as lake effect is so localized. LES Warnings are iconic to the great lakes. Winter storm warnings are used across all of the US. 

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I noticed a certain outlet that was once serious about weather (kinda like when a certain station was serious about music videos) put out a Sept to Nov temp outlook and it is suggesting BN overall during the 3 mos...Sept above, Oct below and Nov below or normal. I'm intrigued by this what would be quite a pattern shift to a western Ridge eastern trough...ive also noticed that we are heading to a neutral ENSO for winter to possibly a weak La Nina. It's early but I like some of the indications for late fall heading into winter.

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On 8/15/2019 at 11:09 AM, Thinksnow18 said:

I noticed a certain outlet that was once serious about weather (kinda like when a certain station was serious about music videos) put out a Sept to Nov temp outlook and it is suggesting BN overall during the 3 mos...Sept above, Oct below and Nov below or normal. I'm intrigued by this what would be quite a pattern shift to a western Ridge eastern trough...ive also noticed that we are heading to a neutral ENSO for winter to possibly a weak La Nina. It's early but I like some of the indications for late fall heading into winter.

Real early thoughts would be about the same as last year. 5-10% above normal snowfall with colder temps then last year. KBUF checked out, but ROC/Cuse did not. I'm pretty such the tug and southern tier of WNY had 5-10% above snowfall averages as well. It's such a high level of variance with LES events. Solar Min/Neutral-Weak Enso so looks good at this time. If you get a colder then average winter, the majority if not all the time you will get above average snowfall. With 2 huge moisture sources, its virtually a lock to get more snow when you get more cold. 

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Really hoping I can get summer to last well into Sep to keep my pool open. Got 2 more pool parties lined up. Also throwing a Bills opener party. Getting the new fence installed next weekend. 

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