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George BM

May Banter 2019

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Severe Weather Disco May 3 2019 4:00AM EDT

Today will potentially be the most dangerous severe weather day experienced in the area in decades. The SPC in Norman, OK has issued a high risk for severe weather for a high likelihood of widespread destructive winds with this afternoon and evenings round of storms. Tornadoes will also be likely with both the morning and afternoon rounds of storms with several strong to violent and long-track tornadoes likely, especially with the afternoon/evening round. Very large hail will also be a threat with the afternoon/evening round of storms. On top of all of this there will be a significant flash flood threat, mainly during the morning hours, as storms train over the same areas with torrential rain. Please use extreme caution if you must travel today.

Rain is currently moving into the western parts of the CWA with some embedded supercells, some already tornadic. Low-level shear will increase as we go through the morning and bands of heavy rain and embedded supercells will continue to quickly move through our region from SSW to NNE. Despite no sunshine, dewpoints rising into the middle 70sF will lead to 1100-1600 J/kg mucape rooted near the surface. With effective SRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, EBWD of 65+ kts and a strong low-level jet (70+kts winds at 1km) several tornadoes appear likely with even a couple strong, long-track tornadoes possible. There will also be a fairly significant damaging wind threat with any organized supercells and bowing line segments. The timing for this round of storms will be between 4am and 10am in the western suburbs. 6am and 12pm in the immediate Washington metropolitan region, and 8am and 2pm along the Chesapeake Bay. The other large threat with this morning round of severe weather will be for flash flooding as PW values will reach the 2.2-2.4 inch range allowing for any storms to contain very heavy rainfall rates. Many of these storms may train over the same areas leading to potentially significant flash flooding wherever this occurs. Rainfall totals through the early afternoon across the region will range from 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts where storms train over the same areas. For this a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire forecasting area through the evening. The pressure gradient will also become very tight and with a powerful low-level jet overhead wind gusts around 40kts seem to be a good bet even without any aid from convection. Thus, a Wind Advisory is in effect through the morning hours.

After this round of rain and storms move out there will be lull as a powerful mid-level jet associated with a very fast moving and powerful shortwave trough will blast into the region promoting ample sunshine through the afternoon allowing temperatures to rise into the middle 80’s. The pressure gradient will increase through the afternoon ahead of the shortwave. With lower-level wind-fields becoming very strong (Mean surface to 850mb winds of 50-55 kts) with increased low-level mixing, synoptic wind gusts to 50-55kts seem plausible which will lead to tree damage and scattered power outages. As a result, a High Wind Warning has been issued for the entire Metropolitan region through the afternoon. At the same time the very powerful trough and associated cold front will approach from the west. Mid-level temperatures will cool (500mb temps dropping to -15C). With dewpoints in the lower 70sF or so, MLCAPE will rise to a very strongly unstable 3000-4500+ J/kg. With a 120+kt mid-level jet moving over the region effective bulk shear will rise to 100+ kts. This shortwave will provide extreme forcing along the cold front. As a result, an extremely dangerous and fast-moving line of storms will develop along the front west of the mountains and race through our region between 4-5pm in far western areas and 7-8pm along the Chesapeake Bay. With the extreme kinematics in place and increasingly steep low-level lapse rates storm motions could be in excess of 80 kts. That combined with ample effective bulk-shear and effective SRH in excess of 500m2/s2 will allow for LEWPS and embedded supercells capable of producing swaths of life-threatening hurricane-force wind gusts, potentially as high as 90 to 100mph, and several tornadoes, some which may be strong. Supercells will develop ahead of the main line and with them several fast-moving strong to violent and long-track tornadoes appear likely given the impressive low-level shear. With the cooling mid-level temperatures severe hail will also be a threat with very large hail (3”+ in diameter) possible in any supercells.

Once the storm threat finally ends everywhere after 8pm a record breaking cold airmass will sweep into the region with temperatures everywhere dropping into the 30’s by dawn. With dangerously high winds still in place (wind gusts of 55-70mph), wind chills will drop into the teens in most spots.

Forecaster: George BM

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also, I have a ridiculous backlog of tornadoes to map. my goodness. close to a 100 from April 17-19

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20 hours ago, mappy said:

also, I have a ridiculous backlog of tornadoes to map. my goodness. close to a 100 from April 17-19

get crackin, slacker

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Feels more like home each time I come out here. A beautiful 42 outside now, nice graupel shower rolled thru about an hour ago.....yes, back in Colorado.

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Heading further west this am, after waking up to one heck of a heavy frost this morning. Low was 31, currently 36. Doing 4 NP's over the next 10 days, Capitol Reef, Bryce and Zion in UT and then Great Basin in NV. Spending two days in each but 4 in Zion. That will be 4 more into the bucket and bring total up to 17 done.

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My two-year-old likes tornado videos and always asks to watch them now (he can't say tornado though- he calls them "tomatoes" :lol:). I never said anything about tornadoes to him, he just happened to see one on a video randomly and is now amazed- weenieness has to be genetic. :lol:

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Thats a shame.  Worried DFH will lose its uniqueness 

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3 hours ago, H2O said:

Thats a shame.  Worried DFH will lose its uniqueness 

I was kidding with a friend that it would be ironic if the merging of craft breweries is what ultimately kills craft brewing.

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10 hours ago, H2O said:

Thats a shame.  Worried DFH will lose its uniqueness 

I don't like it.

Don't know much about the parent company(Boston Beer Co) but Sam Adams = flavorless, zero character, shit.

If they ever discontinue 120 they have lost a loyal customer.

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On 5/7/2019 at 9:27 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

My two-year-old likes tornado videos and always asks to watch them now (he can't say tornado though- he calls them "tomatoes" :lol:). I never said anything about tornadoes to him, he just happened to see one on a video randomly and is now amazed- weenieness has to be genetic. :lol:

My 4 year old son pretends he is chasing tornadoes.  

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12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

My 4 year old son pretends he is chasing tornadoes.  

It's when he starts catching them is when you need to worry.

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Just because I am bored...

January and February look pretty appetizing on the CFS. Nov and December aren't too bad either.

CANSIPS is somewhat Meh.

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Just because I am bored...

January and February look pretty appetizing on the CFS. Nov and December aren't too bad either.

CANSIPS is somewhat Meh.

This will be the winter where modeled sustained NA blocking will actually verify in real time.

Feb looks especially delicious.

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31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This will be the winter where modeled sustained NA blocking will actually verify in real time.

Feb looks especially delicious.

And of course we will get the Nina from Hell to go along with it. :lol:

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57 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This will be the winter where modeled sustained NA blocking will actually verify in real time.

Feb looks especially delicious.

If you build it they will come -prepare now.  

 

 

 

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Anywhere in driving distance expected to have nice weather tomorrow through Tuesday? My son and a friend want to do a quick getaway vacation.

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Simply incredible. I believe a tornado was associated with this severe storm.  The detail is breathtaking 

 

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

If you build it they will come -prepare now.  

 

 

 

Oh yeah, baby. We’re renovating The Panic Room and death campus will be gorgeous come winter. 

giphy.gif?cid=19f5b51a5cd705ba35574d3449

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh yeah, baby. We’re renovating The Panic Room and death campus will be gorgeous come winter. 

giphy.gif?cid=19f5b51a5cd705ba35574d3449

Can I request a Starbucks inside . A hot coffee will ease my despair. 

 

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4 hours ago, frd said:

Can I request a Starbucks inside . A hot coffee will ease my despair. 

 

No Starbucks, but we will have a coffee shop with our patented Wake The Dead brew and MegaMugs. I’ve heard it’s to die for.

71r2OOwK7yL._SX466_.jpg

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14 hours ago, nj2va said:

Can someone explain why 270 is still only two lanes north of Clarksburg?  Just nonsense.

Lack of good regional planning.

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