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May Discobs 2019


George BM
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23 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Here comes another miss- I can already see the central Calvert split on radar. Another day of running the sprinkler.

It’s certainly looked healthy at about 5:30 this morning. Quickly fell apart shortly after. 

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Appears that June starts cooler with continued oppurtunities for rainfall. 

Also of note, this is somewhat a repeating pattern the last few years, with early June having cooler periods, after very warm Mays.

Also of note the recent long duration -SOI

SOI Dashboard

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values


SOI values for 29 May, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days -6.77
Average SOI for last 90 days -5.28
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -6.34

 

From Mount Holly focus the weekend and beyond: 

In addition, we will need to keep an eye on southern stream energy over
the weekend, with some potential for cyclogenesis near the
Carolinas. Should that occur, it is possible moisture from that
system could become involved in our weather. Finally, we will also
have to watch the position of the upper low itself. Should it wobble
far enough south, the cool air aloft would favor additional
instability showers early next week, though the overall trend should
be drier with time. So all in all, while it is difficult to time out
individual features, the trends should be cooler weather than we`ve
seen, and continued opportunities for occasional showers and storms,
though perhaps more in the way of dry weather by early next week.

Also notice huge jump in QFP

 

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Well it's gonna be a hot one for me.  HVAC shut down at work yesterday so they sent us off at 3 PM and we are closed today.  Then my house AC went out and they're coming tomorrow evening.  I'd LOVE to get a thunderstorm this afternoon to cool the roof off, but ol' Germantown is starting to get back to form missing all recent storms; only 0.5 since May 13.  

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2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Well it's gonna be a hot one for me.  HVAC shut down at work yesterday so they sent us off at 3 PM and we are closed today.  Then my house AC went out and they're coming tomorrow evening.  I'd LOVE to get a thunderstorm this afternoon to cool the roof off, but ol' Germantown is starting to get back to form missing all recent storms; only 0.5 since May 13.  

Bummer. I think you'll get something today.

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Surprising to see the 30 day and the 90 day SOI values going back down, today the SOI was negative again. 

This part of a post I brought over from the NYC forum, from @donsutherland1  - always a good read from him, but here I focus on the ENSO and the SOI part of his update......  I agree that early to mid June holds promise for more normal temps. 

Certainly early next week looks much cooler at this time.  

From Don :

<<<<

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June.

The SOI was -6.34 today.

>>>

I checked out https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/  this morning  

daily contribution to SOI calculation -9.79

 

 

 image.png.09c1794cfb5fb3da44b6515eaa4e24ee.png

 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Guidance showing highs 65 - 70 Monday with possible  lows  in the 40s in  spots . I'll take a couple days like that for sure . Plenty of heat and humidity to go around . 

Yep. Looks awesome for early June.  Great hiking weather and anything outdoors. 

Meanwhile the SOI is really tanking.  

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -18.37

image.png.43ebc08d53800ec28b9d82726eef7094.png

 

 

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  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic
  • 2 weeks later...

Hey, you got two months on time.......

Averaged high for the month was 78.4 degrees vs normal of 74.4 degrees, a +4.0 above average. Warmest temp was 87.1 degrees on the 29th. Averaged low was 54.8 degrees vs a 48.0 degrees, a +6.8 above average. Coldest temp was 36.8 degrees on the 15th. Overall temp for the month was 66.6 degrees vs a normal of 61.2 degrees, a +5.4 above average. Total rainfall for the month was 2.75 inches vs a normal of 4.11 inches, a -1.36 below normal. The largest rainfall for the month was .56 inches on the 13th. There were 14 days with measurable, 3 days with a 'T' and 14 days that were dry. The highest wind recorded was 31 mph on the 30th. There were 4 new records set, all warm minimums on the 5th, 10th, 11th and 27th.

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