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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Hudson County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Southeastern Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Queens County in southeastern New York...
  Bronx County in southeastern New York...
  New York (Manhattan) County in southeastern New York...
  Nassau County in southeastern New York...

* Until 630 PM EDT.

* At 547 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Harlem, or
  over Mott Haven, moving southeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Laguardia Airport and Jackson Heights around 555 PM EDT.
  Flushing and Throgs Neck Bridge around 600 PM EDT.
  Jamaica and Great Neck around 605 PM EDT.
  Kennedy Airport and Manhasset around 610 PM EDT.
  Valley Stream and Garden City around 615 PM EDT.
  Lynbrook and Westbury around 620 PM EDT.
  Levittown and Freeport around 625 PM EDT.
  Massapequa and Jones Beach around 630 PM EDT.

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Some downpours in the bx, nothing close to severe though. Temp down to 78. 

 

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4 minutes ago, dWave said:

Some downpours in the bx, nothing close to severe though. Temp down to 78. 

 

Looked like weak sauce to me.

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i can see planes land at laguardia i did not see or hear any lightning or thunder.. strange they put up a severe thunderstorm warning

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Wasn't weak sauce if you were looking at the Newark and JFK TDWR radar base velocities...low-topped nastiness given the steep low level lapse rates and very dry sub-cloud air. Trees down in Teaneck NJ and I bet elsewhere along the storm's path from Pompton Lakes all the way into the south Bronx. Still looking for damage reports...

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I just got home from the city and there was no visible damage along the West Side Hwy, Saw Mill, Taconic or Rt 100 through northern Westchester. 

It did rain super hard in the city and there was a lot of water on the ground for about a half hour but nothing severe.

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With today's thundershowers, New York City picked up 0.20" rain. That brought total precipitation for 2019 past 20.00" to 20.04". That is 0.99" above normal. At Newark, the temperature hit 90°. Cooler weather lies ahead, especially for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

Meanwhile, scorching heat roasted the Southeast. At Wilmington, NC, the temperature reached 100°. That was Wilmington's hottest temperature since June 16, 2015 when the mercury also reached 100°. This reading was also Wilmington's hottest reading on record for May. Wilmington is poised to record its warmest May on record (implied probability: 68%).

Select records included:

Atlanta: 94° (tied record set in 1911 and tied in 1916 and 1936)
Charleston, SC: 100° (old record: 98°, 1953) **Hottest since July 13, 2016 when the temperature also hit 100°**
Columbia, SC: 100° (tied record set in 1953)
Raleigh: 94° (tied record set in 1953)
Savannah: 101° (old record: 100°, 1953) ** Hottest since June 20, 2011 when the temperature also hit 101°**
Wilmington, NC: 100° (old record: 98°, 1953) **Hottest since June 16, 2015 when the temperature also hit 100°**

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.79°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The SOI was -19.28 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.205.

On May 26, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.131 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the May 25-adjusted figure of 2.165. The MJO has now been in Phase 8 for 13 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since June 11-23, 2009 when the MJO was also in Phase 8 for 13 consecutive days.

The core of the warm anomalies during the remainder of May will likely be focused over the Southeast. The heat could push up the East Coast on one or two days. The potential exists for the 90° isotherm to approach or reach the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas during the height of the warmth next week (around May 30).

Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°, tied the daily record high temperature set in 1911 and then tied in 1916 and 1936. Atlanta is well on its way toward experiencing the warmest May on record for that city. Records go back to 1879.

Select Statistics for Atlanta:

Mean Temperature (May 1-26): 75.1° (warmest first 26 days of May; old record: 75.0°, 1902 and 1996)

Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 76.1° (likely range: 75.6°-76.6°)

Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 88%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 85%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 54%.

Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City has fallen sharply to just over 50% with the sharp 1-2 day cool shot that is possible for Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday.

 

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I dunno about that .2" in the park. I was a half mile west of the station and it poured, way more than .2. If it's under dense trees that would explain it, kind of like all of the other wrong readings we've been seeing from there for a while now.

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3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I dunno about that .2" in the park. I was a half mile west of the station and it poured, way more than .2. If it's under dense trees that would explain it, kind of like all of the other wrong readings we've been seeing from there for a while now.

It should be noted that NYC is running about 1" below EWR at this point in time.

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1 hour ago, billgwx said:

Wasn't weak sauce if you were looking at the Newark and JFK TDWR radar base velocities...low-topped nastiness given the steep low level lapse rates and very dry sub-cloud air. Trees down in Teaneck NJ and I bet elsewhere along the storm's path from Pompton Lakes all the way into the south Bronx. Still looking for damage reports...

Yup the warning was defitnitly warranted. Noticed the strong velocities as well on the Ewr TDWR radar site. 

Other news, more rain/storms appear to be on the way from PA 

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1 hour ago, billgwx said:

Wasn't weak sauce if you were looking at the Newark and JFK TDWR radar base velocities...low-topped nastiness given the steep low level lapse rates and very dry sub-cloud air. Trees down in Teaneck NJ and I bet elsewhere along the storm's path from Pompton Lakes all the way into the south Bronx. Still looking for damage reports...

That’s what I figured. That and the fact that it’s Memorial Day weekend and a ton of people are outside. That cell could have easily intensified 

.45” at the wantagh meso which is impressive for a warm season thunderstorm on the south shore. Seemed to get the best of what was left right here with heavy rain and a couple of strikes

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5/26


EWR: 90
BLM: 89
LGA: 89
New Brnswick: 88
PHL: 88
TEB: 88
ACY: 88
ISP: 86
TTN: 86
NYC: 86
JFK: 85

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Topped out at 87 here. No measurable precipitation.

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Just missing the conveyor of severe storms to my South here in Gettysburg.

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Last 5 days of May are averaging 70.5degs., or about 3.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.5[61.2].        May should end near  +0.4[62.7].

We may end May with a total of 20 rainy days plus one T.

On beach yesterday it was pleasant except from near 2:30pm to 3pm when breeze suddenly  quit and T rose several degrees.

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Looks like an active convection pattern this week with the warm front stalling out nearby. The -NAO pushing back against the SE Ridge has muted our maximum temperature potential. So far Newark has the 2nd coolest spring maximum temperature of the 2010’s. Very sharp SST gradient has set up along 40 N where the warm fronts have been getting stuck.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2014 88 0
2 2019 90 5
3 2015 91 0
4 2012 92 0
- 2011 92 0
6 2018 94 0
- 2017 94 0
- 2013 94 0
9 2010 95 0
10 2016 96

 

254BD1AC-13AE-4F08-A7B6-C13313189DE1.thumb.gif.1a93ebc9ae79e9ed87e583de1d37f05a.gif

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Shaping up to be a beautiful Memorial day.  Mostly Sunny all day with temps near or in the low 80s.

 

Past Memorial Days Highs;

2018 5/28 : 71 (0.0)
2017 5/29 : 61 (0.14) 
2016 5/30:  83 (1.39)
2015 5/25:  90 (0.0)
2014 5/26:  88 (0.00)
2013 5/27: 76 (0.00)
2012 5/28: 91 (Trace)
2011 5/30:  92 (0.32)
2010  5/31: 89 (T) 

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lovely late spring today today.. we all will think of such days once real summer arrives and stays for a few months...

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Just now, nycwinter said:

lovely late spring today today.. we all will think of such days once real summer arrives and stays for a few months...

"Oh man, it's 89F today. If only it were 7 degrees cooler, then I could finally be happy again."

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13 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

Yup the warning was defitnitly warranted. Noticed the strong velocities as well on the Ewr TDWR radar site. 

Other news, more rain/storms appear to be on the way from PA 

It was legit. Drove through it on Rt 4 in Hackensack. Blinding rain and winds were very strong with trees really bending. I know some trees came down in the area too just east of there. 

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1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

"Oh man, it's 89F today. If only it were 7 degrees cooler, then I could finally be happy again."

temp is 74 degrees in nyc what are you smoking?

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We should've seen the high temperature potential busting this week. Won't get higher than the low 80s and should mainly stay in the upper 70s. 

Good news if you hate high heat. Will probably have to wait till July for it. 

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33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We should've seen the high temperature potential busting this week. Won't get higher than the low 80s and should mainly stay in the upper 70s. 

Good news if you hate high heat. Will probably have to wait till July for it. 

Persistent SE Canada troughs due to Atlantic blocking has not allowed for any sustained heat for those of us north of 40N. Blocking breaks down in the long range, but no big signal for big heat through Day 10.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We should've seen the high temperature potential busting this week. Won't get higher than the low 80s and should mainly stay in the upper 70s. 

Good news if you hate high heat. Will probably have to wait till July for it. 

The big snowstorm was always 6-10 days away during the winter. Now we switched to the major heat is just 6-10 days away. These model biases often indicate the type of pattern we are in. But you know there had to be some extreme Greenland  blocking this month. At least for our area, the -NAO kept the SE Ridge in check.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

So far, six cities have either tied or set new all-time May monthly high temperature records in this heat wave. Some of these cities did so on multiple days, recording their first triple-digit highs on record for May.

-Alma, Georgia: 100 degrees Saturday, then 101 degrees Sunday; The only other 100+ day in May previously was May 28, 1967. 

-Augusta, Georgia: 100 degrees Saturday, then 101 degrees Sunday

-Charleston, South Carolina (airport): 100 degrees Sunday; This was the first triple-digit high in May, there. The previous earliest 100 in the year was June 2, 1985.

-Macon, Georgia: 99 degrees Saturday, then 100 degrees Sunday; This was the first triple-digit high in May, there. 

-Savannah, Georgia: 100 degrees Saturday, then 102 degrees Sunday; This was the first triple-digit high in May, there. 

-Wilmington, North Carolina: 98 degrees Friday, then 100 degrees Sunday; This was the first triple-digit high in May, there. 

The hottest temperatures in the nation, Sunday, were in parts of South Carolina and Georgia, rather than their typical late May spot in Death Valley

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like an active convection pattern this week with the warm front stalling out nearby. The -NAO pushing back against the SE Ridge has muted our maximum temperature potential. So far Newark has the 2nd coolest spring maximum temperature of the 2010’s. Very sharp SST gradient has set up along 40 N where the warm fronts have been getting stuck.

 

tomorrow has tornadic potential with the low passing nearby along the warm front

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