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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, no sea breezes there. How do you like your new area? Looks like portions of the Southeast will make a run on their warmest May. I already see a bunch of +5 to +6 departures before the hottest part of the month arrives.

2C38E263-D400-499F-9266-02F74902D0DC.png.609be4aeef5fe1ff63362a9f9cbac7a2.png

It has it's pro's and con's. Much more things to do up on LI although I cannot argue with the cheap cost of living down here, which was my primary reason for moving off the Island. I'd still be living there if it was not so expensive.

It's been very wet here since I got here with the exception of the last 8 days or so, complete turnaround to bone dry. Even the current dew points in the 60s feels dry.  87/62 now

Hoping you guys get a good summer up there. 

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44 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

It has it's pro's and con's. Much more things to do up on LI although I cannot argue with the cheap cost of living down here, which was my primary reason for moving off the Island. I'd still be living there if it was not so expensive.

It's been very wet here since I got here with the exception of the last 8 days or so, complete turnaround to bone dry. Even the current dew points in the 60s feels dry.  87/62 now

Hoping you guys get a good summer up there. 

Hope you enjoy your summer also. Your new area and the L.I. South Shore actually had a similar seasonal snowfall total this year. So you didn’t miss out on much this snowfall season.

Time Series Summary for SALISBURY 9 WNW, NC
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
2019-04-30 8.0 0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
2019-04-30 12.8 0

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

It has it's pro's and con's. Much more things to do up on LI although I cannot argue with the cheap cost of living down here, which was my primary reason for moving off the Island. I'd still be living there if it was not so expensive.

It's been very wet here since I got here with the exception of the last 8 days or so, complete turnaround to bone dry. Even the current dew points in the 60s feels dry.  87/62 now

Hoping you guys get a good summer up there. 

I’ll probably be right behind you lol. Everyone’s over it.

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Next 8 days averaging 68.4degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.0[60.0].      Should be +0.1[62.3] by the 30th.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Dipping into the 40s now, a big drop from near 90 on Sunday.

..KFOK down to 39*..as the wind went calm.

eastport @ 46*..hope my tender, young zinnias will be ok..

will check the beach today and hit shinnecock bay early sat. morning for

some early season fluke...seasons upon us boys!!

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Can someone teach me how to read soundings? They're so beautiful, but I have no idea what I'm looking at.

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1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Can someone teach me how to read soundings? They're so beautiful, but I have no idea what I'm looking at.

Yeah, I keep taking stabs at learning them bit by bit, I found this the other day, I hope she knows what shes talking about as i can't argue against it LOL: 

http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-basics-of-severe-weather-sounding.html

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46 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Yeah, I keep taking stabs at learning them bit by bit, I found this the other day, I hope she knows what shes talking about as i can't argue against it LOL: 

http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-basics-of-severe-weather-sounding.html

Thank you for the find. I must confess it did take me awhile to get down to the beginning of the sounding explanation. I did read it through and will need a number of re-reads and an actual application attempt before I am sure if anything stuck. Oh, one other thing, if she ever posts on the forum, her avatar will give Forky’s a run for the money. As always ....

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Sunday could be our first 90 degree day of the season for local hotspots like EWR and LGA.

 

EB9FD2B7-D875-496A-AF4D-B11DC4F5D785.thumb.png.8d2ae2c7d8f64f6164693342c00e9166.png

 

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14 hours ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

How's it looking for Long Island?

We will probably see a dying line on storms move through. Typical for this time or year. Best storms will be west of the city 

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Euro has +20C 850 mb temperatures next Wednesday. This would be our first  95+ major heat of the season with enough sun.

 

8FF2EA86-BDE2-44AB-ADA3-A6815BCCCDA0.thumb.png.6ee3243f7bc73f1894965b874dd74940.png

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Looks like they cut back on the potential for our area to receive severe storms. We were in the SLGHT color before, but now we're at MRGL.

 

day2otlk_1730.gif?1558559539871

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42 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Looks like they cut back on the potential for our area to receive severe storms. We were in the SLGHT color before, but now we're at MRGL.

 

day2otlk_1730.gif?1558559539871

Yep. Could be timing issue is I think the activity holds off til evening

Should be one of the better memorial day weekends in recent memory 

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50 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Should be one of the better memorial day weekends in recent memory 

the bar is pretty low

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The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.79°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The SOI was -5.65 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.878. The AO has now been at or below -1.000 or 17 consecutive days. Overall, the AO is likely to be at or below -1.000 for at least half the days during the second half of the month. Such situations have often been followed with readings within 1° of normal during the first 10 days of June.

On May 21, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.766 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the May 20-adjusted figure of 1.849. The MJO has now been in Phase 8 for 9 consecutive days.

During the May 5-15 period, the MJO reached Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above on two days. Since 1974, three years saw the MJO in Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above during that same timeframe. The mean May 21-31 temperature was 67.9°. The warmest was 2011 with a mean temperature of 71.2°. However, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged +0.62°C during May. The coldest was 1996 with a mean temperature of 64.5°. Then, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged -1.31°C. During the last 6 weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Therefore, the kind of chill that was seen in 1996 appears unlikely. A figure closer to the 2011 average is more likely than something below the overall average. At present, the guidance suggests a mean temperature of 70.1° for the May 21-31 timeframe. In addition, all three cases saw monthly high temperatures in the upper 80s or above in the northern Middle Atlantic region and middle and upper 80s or above in southern New England.

The core of the warm anomalies during the remainder of May will likely be focused over the Southeast. The heat could push up the East Coast on one or two days. The potential exists for the 90° isotherm to approach or reach the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas during the height of the warmth.

With potential record-challenging heat likely during part of this period, Atlanta will likely establish a new all-time monthly record high mean temperature. The existing record is 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. The implied probability of May 2019's setting a new record high mean temperature for May is 71%.

Select Statistics for Atlanta:

Mean Temperature (May 1-22): 73.7° (6th warmest)

Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.9° (likely range: 75.0°-76.8°)

Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is 72%.

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