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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, doncat said:

This month continues the theme with above normal precipitation here...only one month out of the last 16 has been below normal. This year isn't too far above normal but just enough each month. Last year though was excessive with nearly 70" falling.

Record 16 consecutive months with over 3.00” of precipitation for NYC.

2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55
2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 4.22 M M M M M M M 19.36

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Wettest-12-Months-US-History

The Ten Wettest 12-Month Periods in Contiguous U.S. History

36.20”      May 2018–Apr. 2019
35.95”      May 2015–Apr. 2016
35.78”      Apr. 2015–Mar. 2016
35.73”      Mar. 2018–Feb. 2019
35.63”      Feb. 1973–Jan. 1974
35.49”      Apr. 2018–Mar. 2019
35.47”      Jun. 1982–May 1983
35.42”      May 1982–Apr. 1983
35.35”      Mar. 1973–Feb. 1974
35.33”      Feb. 2018–Jan. 2019

 

 

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The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.79°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The SOI was -19.44 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.039. The AO has now been at or below -1.000 or 18 consecutive days. Overall, the AO is likely to be at or below -1.000 for at least half the days during the second half of the month. Such situations have often been followed with readings within 1° of normal during the first 10 days of June.

On May 22, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.821 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 21-adjusted figure of 1.757. The MJO has now been in Phase 8 for 10 consecutive days.

The core of the warm anomalies during the remainder of May will likely be focused over the Southeast. The heat could push up the East Coast on one or two days. The potential exists for the 90° isotherm to approach or reach the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas during the height of the warmth (May 29-30 timeframe). Some of the guidance hints at readings approaching the middle 90s as far north as New York City.

With potential record-challenging heat likely during part of this period, Atlanta will likely establish a new all-time monthly record high mean temperature. The existing record is 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. The implied probability of May 2019's setting a new record high mean temperature for May is 74%.

Select Statistics for Atlanta:

Mean Temperature (May 1-23): 74.0° (6th warmest)

Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.9° (likely range: 75.2°-76.7°)

Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 74%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 71%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 48%.

Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is 70%.

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The last 8 days of May are averaging 73degs., or 6.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.9[60.4].      May should end near  +1.0[63.5].

EURO covers its face and walks off the stage after lowering its high for 5/29 by 20 degrees---95>>>>75!   Yesterday it had raised it by 26 degrees  69>>>>95!       Maybe it should just wait till the 30th., to tell us what is going to happened.

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these are the hottest May days on record for Central Park...I was in Central Park on 5/29/1969...the heat did not bother be at all...I was 20 then...1969 saw the Jets and Mets win it all and we walked on the Moon...1880 and 1895 represent the olden days...

99 5/19/1962

97 5/29/1969

97 5/30/1987

96 5/20/1996

96 5/22/1941

96 5/27/1880

96 5/29/1987

96 5/31/1895

95 5/25/1880

95 5/26/1880

95 5/27/1914

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4 hours ago, uncle W said:

these are the hottest May days on record for Central Park...I was in Central Park on 5/29/1969...the heat did not bother be at all...I was 20 then...1969 saw the Jets and Mets win it all and we walked on the Moon...1880 and 1895 represent the olden days...

99 5/19/1962

97 5/29/1969

97 5/30/1987

96 5/20/1996

96 5/22/1941

96 5/27/1880

96 5/29/1987

96 5/31/1895

95 5/25/1880

95 5/26/1880

95 5/27/1914

My station record for May is 99° on the 20th in 1996. Warmest  May overall was way  back in 1991.

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On 5/14/2019 at 10:38 PM, weatherpruf said:

Worst summer ever. But it came after a blockbuster winter at least, one of the greats. But summer? Couldn't even go for a swim, water was too cold.

Yes, the humidity was way high that summer.

On the plus side, my allergies have been gone for a week now- must be this nice dry weather- I hope it continues!

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pollen count is through the roof with Newark gusting to 46 mph. 


Newark/Liberty PTSUNNY   76  49  38 NW32G46   29.92S

https://weather.com/forecast/allergy/l/Springfield+NJ+07081:4:US

1Springfield, NJ2871

 

wow I'm not feeling any allergies and haven't in over a week, for me when it's humid or raining a lot is when I have allergies

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The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.79°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The SOI was -22.35 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.857.

On May 23, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.837 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 22-adjusted figure of 1.819. The MJO has now been in Phase 8 for 11 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since February 12-22, 2019 when the MJO was also in Phase 8 for 11 consecutive days.

The core of the warm anomalies during the remainder of May will likely be focused over the Southeast. The heat could push up the East Coast on one or two days. The potential exists for the 90° isotherm to approach or reach the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas during the height of the warmth (May 26 and also during the May 29-30 timeframe).

Today, Atlanta had a high temperature of 94°, which just missed the daily record high temperature of 95°, which was set in 1996. That was Atlanta's highest temperature since September 20, 2018 when the temperature also reached 94°. Atlanta will likely establish a new all-time monthly record high mean temperature. The existing record is 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018.

Select Statistics for Atlanta:

Mean Temperature (May 1-24): 74.3° (5th warmest)

Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.9° (likely range: 75.3°-76.6°)

Implied probabilities: Record warm May: 77%; May mean temperature of 75.0° or above: 74%; May mean temperature of 76.0°: 48%.

Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is approximately 70%.

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Last 7 days of May are averaging 72.3degs., or about 5degs. AN 

Month to date is -0.8[60.6].         May should end near +0.8[63.2].

GFS still with a four day heatwave, topping at 95/30th.    EURO has one 90.

Remember for  early last July the GFS had 5 100* days in a row---topping 106* twice!    Reality kept peak at 96*, during that stretch.   Let's see if it is any better now.

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1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Very nice day out there so far. I expect a high of right around 75 here.

Current temp 68

Images were cached but if you click the link some mid/high level clouds just to the west.  Hope they clear out before dulling part of the afternoon.

 

 

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Models have backed off from the extreme heat 95+ but a couple shots of 90 are still possible. 

However things probably drop into the 70s or lower in between the hotter shots (Gfs shows 50s during the afternoon on Tue).

High latitude blocking is preventing the SE ridge from dominating our weather.

Wonder how long that lasts.

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models have backed off from the extreme heat 95+ but a couple shots of 90 are still possible. 

However things probably drop into the 70s or lower in between the hotter shots (Gfs shows 50s during the afternoon on Tue).

High latitude blocking is preventing the SE ridge from dominating our weather.

Wonder how long that lasts.

who would have thought the models were wrong...

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