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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Best Ambrose Jet of the spring so far with JFK gusting to 43 mph. Marine layer also hanging tough out here in SW Suffolk.


Kennedy Intl   FAIR      69  65  86 S28G43  

7151D80A-7D72-45D0-A799-5FFD74CE87AB.jpeg.bfd4fd02ed9669357e30a67d425a3def.jpeg

 

Wow that sux. It's sparkly clear up here and all the way down into the city. 

3 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Not in Manhattan, don't believe we even cracked 80.

I saw 79 uptown and 76 in Chelsea this afternoon. I had to run in for a thing my wife had to do and was surprised it got that warm along the water on the west side.

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16 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Topped out at 70 at farmingdale airport.   Cloudy since 11 am

 

2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Wow that sux. It's sparkly clear up here and all the way down into the city. 

I saw 79 uptown and 76 in Chelsea this afternoon. I had to run in for a thing my wife had to do and was surprised it got that warm along the water on the west side.

Lowest spring max of 72 degrees so far at Farmingdale since the regular record keeping began in 2000.

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 19
Missing Count
1 2019-05-19 72 1
2 2011-05-19 75 0
3 2016-05-19 76 0
- 2008-05-19 76 0
5 2014-05-19 79 0
- 2012-05-19 79 2
- 2007-05-19 79 0
- 2006-05-19 79 0
9 2005-05-19 81 0
10 2013-05-19 82 1
11 2018-05-19 83 0
12 2004-05-19 84 0
13 2015-05-19 85 0
- 2003-05-19 85 0
15 2010-05-19 86 0
16 2009-05-19 87 0
- 2000-05-19 87 3
18 2017-05-19 89 0
- 2001-05-19 89 0
20 2002-05-19 91 0
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7 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Wow that sux. It's sparkly clear up here and all the way down into the city. 

I saw 79 uptown and 76 in Chelsea this afternoon. I had to run in for a thing my wife had to do and was surprised it got that warm along the water on the west side.

Maybe now you can understand and appreciate the frustration we have had on Long Island this spring.   This has been an extremely cool and damp spring.  

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SUMMARY...A new watch may be needed downstream of WW 192 and 193.
   Locally damaging wind and hail threat could persist for several more
   hours eastward toward the I-95 corridor and southern NY.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered severe thunderstorms continue to track
   northeast across central and eastern PA and eastern NY. Storms have
   remained semi-discrete with a tenancy toward upscale growth into
   bowing structures. Convection may persist beyond the 01z expiration
   time of WW 192 and 193 across parts of far western PA into southern
   NY and NJ where a very moist airmass (surface dew points in the
   upper 60s to low 70s) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. As a
   result, a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE resides from southeast
   PA into southern NY. Effective shear around 30 kt should remain
   adequate to support semi-organized structures into this evening and
   a locally damaging wind and hail threat could spread eastward toward
   the I-95 corridor/southern NY through around 04-05z. As such, a new
   watch may be needed. 

mcd.gif

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Today, high temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region included: Allentown: 88°; Atlantic City: 78°; Baltimore: 87°; Harrisburg: 88°; Islip: 73°; New York City: 76°; Newark: 80°; Philadelphia: 85°; and, Washington, DC: 87°.

Following some potentially strong thunderstorms, tomorrow could see the mercury approach or reach 90° as far north as Washington, DC. Temperatures in the lower and possibly middle 80s will likely reach New York City and its northern suburbs.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The SOI was -1.05 today. The SOI has become more volatile in recent days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.110. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. The guidance continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period. The possibility of an 80° or above temperature in the northern Mid-Atlantic and possibly southern New England during the latter part of this period has continued to increase on the guidance.

On May 18, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.748 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 17-adjusted figure of 1.696.

During the May 5-15 period, the MJO reached Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above on two days. Since 1974, three years saw the MJO in Phase 7 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above during that same timeframe. The mean May 21-31 temperature was 67.9°. The warmest was 2011 with a mean temperature of 71.2°. However, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged +0.62°C during May. The coldest was 1996 with a mean temperature of 64.5°. Then, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averaged -1.31°C. During the last 6 weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Therefore, the kind of chill that was seen in 1996 appears unlikely. At present, the guidance suggests a mean temperature of 67.9° for the May 21-31 timeframe. In addition, all three cases saw monthly high temperatures in the upper 80s or above in the northern Middle Atlantic region and middle and upper 80s or above in southern New England.

The core of the warm anomalies during the May 21-31 period could be focused over the Southeast. With potential record-challenging heat likely during part of this period, Atlanta could approach or exceed the all-time monthly record high mean temperature of 74.8°, which was set in 1996 and tied in 2018. The implied probability of May 2019's setting a new record high mean temperature for May is 58%.

Select Statistics for Atlanta:

Mean Temperature (May 1-19): 72.7° (11th warmest)

Estimated Final May 2019 Average: 75.5°

Warmest May on Record: 74.8°, 1996 and 2018

Finally, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the implied probability of a warmer than normal May in New York City is 54%.

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9 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

Maybe now you can understand and appreciate the frustration we have had on Long Island this spring.   This has been an extremely cool and damp spring.  

Really? I think that you don't understand what it's like to be on the east side of the lower Taconics up here. There's often a much more significant marine influence than places south and east of me. It takes a lot to get the continental influence over the Catskills, Hudson Highlands and Taconics to the east side. Microclimates are an amazing thing, I grew up down there so I know a lot more about the weather on the Island than you think. 

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Next 8 days are averaging 67degs., or 2 degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.7[59.0].      Should be -0.6[61.4] by the 28th.

61.5* here at 6am.    Already 65.3* by 7am. 69.5* by 8am.    71.7* by 9am.   76.6* by 10am.    78.5* by 11am.    Made 80.0* at 11:45am.     80.4* by Noon.   83.0* at 1pm, sandstorm on beach, cumulus moving in.     Whirlwind was short lived and I am now at 87.8* at 3pm+clouds.     Looked like temp. was stuck near 84* for a while.      82.5* at 4pm+clouds and breezy.

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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Really? I think that you don't understand what it's like to be on the east side of the lower Taconics up here. There's often a much more significant marine influence than places south and east of me. It takes a lot to get the continental influence over the Catskills, Hudson Highlands and Taconics to the east side. Microclimates are an amazing thing, I grew up down there so I know a lot more about the weather on the Island than you think. 

I’m not familiar with the Taconics—never claimed to be.  Never brought that up. I have only been speaking about the frustration we have experienced on Long Island with respect to the weather-we haven’t had much of a spring.  Growing up here, you probably experienced this

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