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Hoosier

April 27-28 Potentially Historic Super Late Season Winter Storm

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I am sold on some accumulation around here but not buying into the heavy amounts on the GEM and a couple of the hires models.  I think a couple inches is a good guess with some potential for more.  The thermal profiles are really teetering in the afternoon so can't rule out a snowier surprise.

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Just to add to how dynamic this little system is, there have been severe warnings in Wyoming today associated with the vort and it produced a tornado. Warning salty language and flying trampolines below:

 

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If LOT pulls the trigger on a WSW, would this be the latest in the season they have ever issued one? I don't know where to find this info.

I'm actually considering driving north to snow chase. Normally I hate spring snow, but this is just too wild. It looks like the majority of the snow will fall during the day in IL/WI which is literally insane.

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As far as leaf out, is this about what it looks like for you folks up north?  Obviously not a uniform process, but I'd say this is fairly representative of the landscape locally.  

20190426_173128.thumb.jpg.c2f560a4eea38207e72e477d25519dc4.jpg

 

20190426_181038.thumb.jpg.d6951bd6bb2696a1ac01aaea0d2b57fa.jpg

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12 minutes ago, fluoronium said:

If LOT pulls the trigger on a WSW, would this be the latest in the season they have ever issued one? I don't know where to find this info.

I'm actually considering driving north to snow chase. Normally I hate spring snow, but this is just too wild. It looks like the majority of the snow will fall during the day in IL/WI which is literally insane.

Don't have the link handy but if you google iem archive you might be able to find it.  They have an archive of past watches/warnings though the data is incomplete the farther back you go.

I'd bet money that LOT has never issued a warning this late.

 

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4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Can anyone offer up a physics/dynamics explanation for why the storm trended south?

The developing -NAO largely explains the suppression. It's digging more to the south due to the depth/magnitude of the trough currently approaching the East Coast (again related to the anomalous ridge developing over Greenland).

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

As far as leaf out, is this about what it looks like for you folks up north?  Obviously not a uniform process, but I'd say this is fairly representative of the landscape locally.  

20190426_173128.thumb.jpg.c2f560a4eea38207e72e477d25519dc4.jpg

 

20190426_181038.thumb.jpg.d6951bd6bb2696a1ac01aaea0d2b57fa.jpg

Looks like you are a solid week or two ahead of us. We have small leaves on most trees, many like my birches and oaks with nothing yet 

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Really depends what kind of tree it is. Boxelders are cranking out, oaks are barely started. Most everything else is in between.6ae9624650cbb6698f4e1208d4c6a45b.jpg3000fceaa6fb1c42b6d7ed8487e2c31b.jpg

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

As far as leaf out, is this about what it looks like for you folks up north?  Obviously not a uniform process, but I'd say this is fairly representative of the landscape locally.  

20190426_173128.thumb.jpg.c2f560a4eea38207e72e477d25519dc4.jpg

 

20190426_181038.thumb.jpg.d6951bd6bb2696a1ac01aaea0d2b57fa.jpg

 We do not seem to be that far along here. My brother noted last weekend in Chicago that they was a lot more blooming there than here.  It is certainly picked up a lot the past week though.

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5 hours ago, ams30721us said:

Yep, a more very similar to Ukie, GEM, and RGEM today.  :popcorn:

e2.png

 

Man that is an awesome low-level baroclinic zone.  They'll be outside BBQ-ing in Springfield, while a snowstorm rages 150 miles north. :popcorn:

Pretty crazy to have a winter storm watch out a few days before May.  Wow. (The county just north that is).

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18 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The developing -NAO largely explains the suppression. It's digging more to the south due to the depth/magnitude of the trough currently approaching the East Coast (again related to the anomalous ridge developing over Greenland).

All it takes is a -NAO to get an absurd, almost unprecedented snowstorm in late April? That’s kinda ****ed up in all honesty.

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

The developing -NAO largely explains the suppression. It's digging more to the south due to the depth/magnitude of the trough currently approaching the East Coast (again related to the anomalous ridge developing over Greenland).

So the -NAO overwhelmed even the -PNA?

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Most recent RAP and the last few HRRR runs have the low (the one in Colorado) tracking straight east.  Low doesn't bump to the north when it merges with the other low from Wyoming.  As for the heavy snow axis, a very slight tick south.

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Today's high at ORD was 63.  I searched and could not find an instance of a 60+ degree high on the day prior to a 6"+ snow in Chicago, so that could be interesting to monitor.  

There have been a few instances of highs in the mid/upper 50s on the day before a 6"+ snow.  Some may recall that it was warm right before the big snow in January 1967.  It was warm but not 60+ on the day before:

1/24/1967:  65

1/25/1967:  54

1/26/1967:  32... 16.4" snow

1/27/1967:  31... 6.6" snow

 

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Today's high at ORD was 63.  I searched and could not find an instance of a 60+ degree high on the day prior to a 6"+ snow in Chicago, so that could be interesting to monitor.  
There have been a few instances of highs in the mid/upper 50s on the day before a 6"+ snow.  Some may recall that it was warm right before the big snow in January 1967.  It was warm but not 60+ on the day before:
1/24/1967:  65
1/25/1967:  54
1/26/1967:  32... 16.4" snow
1/27/1967:  31... 6.6" snow
 
Most interesting somewhat comparable time period I could find when putting together stats for the office was late April 1910. There were 5 consecutive days with measurable snow from the 22nd to the 26th including 2 days with 2"+. Then 2 days after the streak ended, April 28th had a high of 76, followed by a high of 86 on the 29th. In addition, prior to that latest on record stretch of 5 consecutive days of measurable snow, there was a high of 80+ earlier that season, on March 27th (81 deg).

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WSW for LOT's northern tier of counties.

Quote
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
814 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

ILZ003-004-270915-
/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0003.190427T1600Z-190428T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0006.190427T1600Z-190428T0400Z/
Winnebago-Boone-
Including the cities of Rockford and Belvidere
814 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5
  to 8 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Winnebago and Boone Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 11 PM CDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will likely be very difficult in
  heavy snowfall with greatly reduced visibilities. In the
  heaviest snowfall, rates could approach 1 to 2 inches per hour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by going to www.gettingaroundillinois.com in Illinois.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
814 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

ILZ005-006-270915-
/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0003.190427T1800Z-190428T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0006.190427T1800Z-190428T0400Z/
McHenry-Lake IL-
Including the cities of Woodstock and Waukegan
814 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5
  to 8 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...McHenry and Lake IL Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM to 11 PM CDT Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will likely be very difficult in
  heavy snowfall with greatly reduced visibilities. In the
  heaviest snowfall, rates could approach 1 to 2 inches per hour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by going to www.gettingaroundillinois.com in Illinois.

&&

$$

 

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z HRRR is taking the surface low fairly solidly into Missouri... not just ride the border.

Yeah, although the axis of heavy snow didn't shift south much.

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As Natester stated, the end result is close to other models... snow band from Dubuque to Chicago, about 0.75" of precip in Cedar Rapids(probably enough mix/snow to coat the grass).

 

hrrr_asnow_ncus_27.png

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 We do not seem to be that far along here. My brother noted last weekend in Chicago that they was a lot more blooming there than here.  It is certainly picked up a lot the past week though.

While checking out the morel mushroom boards, I noticed a similar progression. It seems that it was almost west to east, with the 'srooms  popping in the western part of Indiana while the majority of the woods floors were still barren here in the eastern part of the state.

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1 minute ago, IWXwx said:

While checking out the morel mushroom boards, I noticed a similar progression. It seems that it was almost east to west, with the 'srooms  popping in the western part of Indiana while the majority of the woods floors were still barren here in the eastern part of the state.

I can confirm!! lol.  These cold nights are killing us.  But at least we're not getting what the folks up North are :weenie:

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HRRR is quite warm at the surface comparatively to other models especially out this way.

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0z NAM (12k) is a bit north of the HRRR and RAP (in terms of the track of the surface low).  However, the axis of snow is exactly the same as shown on the HRRR and RAP.

EDIT: 0z NAM 3k also a bit north of the RAP and HRRR.  Hardly any accumulation for Cedar Rapids (which I don't mind).

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22 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

While checking out the morel mushroom boards, I noticed a similar progression. It seems that it was almost west to east, with the 'srooms  popping in the western part of Indiana while the majority of the woods floors were still barren here in the eastern part of the state.

I have a friend from Fortville planning to go morel hunting near North Manchester tomorrow on a relative's 80 acre property.  May have some rain but the snow might stay north per AFD.

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A nice thing about a storm at this time of year is the late sunset.  You don't get frequent chances to watch it rip in daylight after 7 pm central/8 pm eastern.

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Given the rarity of a mid-late April accumulating snowfall I feel bad for LOT. They did not buy into the 4/14 event and got burned a bit. Would not be surprised that as they buy in this time things don't pan out the same way. Luck of the draw I guess. Either way, this last two weeks is for the "winters over" crowd that posts on December 26.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

A nice thing about a storm at this time of year is the late sunset.  You don't get frequent chances to watch it rip in daylight after 7 pm central/8 pm eastern.

sick in a way:D

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