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April 27-28 Potentially Historic Super Late Season Winter Storm

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40 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Oh yeah I'm just TOTALLY loving the death band potential. /s

Me too, especially since my gf's flight back from Atlanta gets in Saturday evening, and I'm supposed to pick her up from the airport. At this rate, it might be significantly delayed. :axe:

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1 hour ago, n1vek said:

5" in my point-and-click for Royal Oak, MI. Is that a typo?

If anything, you may have to worry about a whiff to the south if trends continue with the southward shifts.

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1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said:

Oh yeah I'm just TOTALLY loving the death band potential. /s

Do weenie cards expire on March 21?  Mine certainly doesn't.  I'll take AFD's like this one out of MPX any time of the year.

However, one thing this
system has in abundance is strong forcing. There are contributions
from isentropic ascent, upper level divergence, differential PVA,
and mid-level frontogenesis. All of these show strong signals, and
are very well correlated both spatially and temporally. Net
adiabatic isentropic Omega lines up quite well with model omega,
and with mixing ratios of 3-4+ g/kg there is more sufficient
moisture for at least 8" of accumulation. Add to this the fact
that strong 700 mb frontogenesis is progged, and couples well with
upper level divergence (initially in the left exit region of the
upper jet streak to our north, but eventually during 12-18Z it is
a coupled feature as the jet streak to our southwest gets into the
picture). Negative EPV is indicated above the sloped region of
frontogenesis, owing to convective instabilty per negative theta-e
lapse rates in the layer. This simply adds to the potential for
intense banded precipitation for a 6 hour or so window of time.

I'd say send this thing my way but if the trend on the high-res models continues this is going to become a Chicago special.  I don't quite buy that since the upper level signature of the s/w over the PacNW looks pretty potent in water vapor imagery which to me argues against further southward shifts.

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Verbatim, the 12z FV3 is shocking. No other way to put it.

1.6" to 1.7" liquid across far N IL, most of it snow.  I keep thinking I'm misreading the graphics...

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WSW for southern WI...although this was issued prior to the guidance shifting south a bit.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

...Late April Winter Storm Taking Aim On Southern Wisconsin...

.A strong late season winter storm will bring a widespread 5 to 7
inch snowfall to southern Wisconsin Saturday into Saturday
evening. A very narrow band of higher amounts is possible.  The
snow will start in the Madison area and points west during the
mid morning hours and continue through the early evening. Across
the southeast, including the Milwaukee metro area, look for a late
morning or early afternoon start time, continuing through the
late evening.

Snowfall rates during the afternoon will likely reach 1 inch per
hour. Warm pavement temperatures will cause a rapid slushy
accumulation that will be difficult to travel in. Temperatures
falling below freezing Saturday night will cause any standing
water and slush to freeze. The higher snow accumulations will
occur on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Sunshine and temperatures in the 40s on Sunday will cause a lot of
the snow to melt, especially on roads and sidewalks. Though the
impact on Saturday will be high, it will be short lived due to
improving conditions on Sunday.

WIZ064>066-070>072-261600-
/O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0005.190427T1800Z-190428T0600Z/
Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson,
Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego,
West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek,
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn,
Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha
251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

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With the exception of the NAM, all 12z guidance shifted south.

Getting closer to a historic and record breaking event being a lock around here.


.

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11 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yeah I think that’s probably more to my point. Impacts, rates, total accumulation was spot on. Placement of the heaviest band was pretty solid too, but it didn’t handle the north west edge well in IL, or the northern extent in Wisconsin. 

The all-time record for snowiest April in DKB is 8.8” recorded in 1975, so would only take 2.4” to break that. Sycamore had a about an inch more than Dekalb with the last storm they would probably need even less. 

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Looks like 1-3 inches is all but certain for Cedar Rapids.  Since most of the trees are in the process of leafing out, there's going to be some tree damage but I doubt power outages will be widespread.  Can't say the same for those who will get dumped on with 6+ inches of cement (with the trees well along in the leafing process, it will be just like getting a half inch of ice).

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Definitely looking more and more likely that at least advisory level snows will come through the metro area and actually the lakes are not that warm yet so I would not expect too much melting along the river like we had in 05. Only thing that would be stopping this from being big time would be the speed of the system and that we initially start as rain here locally.

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Also I agree with Powerball, compact vort like this, great slantwise instability in the soundings, very strong lift, I would expect thundersnow and potentially a lot of reports too.

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32 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

With the exception of the NAM, all 12z guidance shifted south.

Getting closer to a historic and record breaking event being a lock around here.


.

Northern burbs are basically a lock.  Question is farther south. 

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Lake temps are generally a couple degrees warmer than the mid April snow, so for areas around northeast IL I would expect similar influence to a couple weeks ago (which wasn't that much away from areas right near the shore), maybe just a tad more pronounced.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Just gonna leave this here...

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_illinois_10.thumb.png.037db6017a0f29c465765bac1a0a573f.png

Prior to a few weeks ago, I would have dismissed this as impossible. But after watching those rates stack up 7.5" in no time, this could be even better. If its going to happen, lets shatter the record. 

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Just gonna leave this here...

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_illinois_10.thumb.png.037db6017a0f29c465765bac1a0a573f.png

Dubuque and northern Illinois gets buried by cement.  Really bad for the leafing trees.

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2 minutes ago, Baum said:

pretty unbelievable.

Indeed.  The mid month storm was unusual enough and now we are looking at a potentially unprecedented occurrence in Chicago metro, at least in the past 135 years or so.

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26 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Just gonna leave this here...

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_illinois_10.thumb.png.037db6017a0f29c465765bac1a0a573f.png

Whoa. I’m supposed to close at work tomorrow night. If the building loses power & I get sent home/lose money like I did 2 weeks ago, I’m going to be 50/50 happy for snow & pissed at money. Lol

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