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Dr. Dews

May 2019 Discussion

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acsnod_t3sfc_f36%201_zpssqph4uij.png

Have we switched official obs to the Tarmac at BDL yet? I know is the tail end of the HRRR run from 12z but that gray shading is a T of snow.

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Leaf out is around 25-50% at lake level up here which is around 550 feet.  Most of the population lives at between 600-1000 feet.  I'm one of the higher homes at 1100 feet with about 20% leaf out.  Leaves are small for the most part.  Whatever happens, will be in that 32-34F range which does the most damage if this should happen.  I like weather that is out of the ordinary so accumulating snow on May 14th is an interesting phenomenon.  

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May of 1977 the damage was pretty bad but it was 6-12”, 20” for some.   Where I was living leaves were all out.   Lots of damage.  

This looks more like 2002 if we get lucky. 

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

May of 1977 the damage was pretty bad but it was 6-12”, 20” for some.   Where I was living leaves were all out.   Lots of damage.  

This looks more like 2002 if we get lucky. 

What was 2002

if you grab one of those bands I see 32-33 Snow pounding your fanny to the tune of 3” currently 

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

May of 1977 the damage was pretty bad but it was 6-12”, 20” for some.   Where I was living leaves were all out.   Lots of damage.  

This looks more like 2002 if we get lucky. 

I think it has a chance to over perform; do I think a 12+ no, but I think a sneaky 2-4 in SNE is not out of the question.  Maybe ORH hills to Union/Stafford or NW RI

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I admit, my interest is gaining steam as well.

If I could sum up my evening shift in a phrase: bring 'em up. 

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I was living in Maryland for May 7 1977 but the folks lived in Wayland.  Roads were impassable with so many limbs down.  I think they had perhaps 6" living 18 miles west of Boston.  Up here for my crazy Memorial Day snow of several years back I measured 3.1" and it brought down limbs and we lost power.  So the 33F glop can definitely do damage in areas with leaf out.  Like Dave said the people with the best chance of accum snow do not have full leaf out but even buds and small leaves increase the chance of power outages versus a winter 33F glopping

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

I was living in Maryland for May 7 1977 but the folks lived in Wayland.  Roads were impassable with so many limbs down.  I think they had perhaps 6" living 18 miles west of Boston.  Up here for my crazy Memorial Day snow of several years back I measured 3.1" and it brought down limbs and we lost power.  So the 33F glop can definitely do damage in areas with leaf out.  Like Dave said the people with the best chance of accum snow do not have full leaf out but even buds and small leaves increase the chance of power outages versus a winter 33F glopping

Depending on their elevation, Wayland prob had more than 6" in May '77. 

Beford coop had 9.5" just a couple towns northeast and then well south in Franklin had 8"+. There was a coop report of 5" in Framingham but it looks a bit low to me given the other totals. It's possible the Framingham reading was taken on lake cochituate or something which may have lowered the total. Parts of wayland border that lake too so lower totals could have been there. Or they didn't take the measurement until well after the event ended. 

Regardless...6" would have caused immense damage anyway. 

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snowacc_mean_f060_NE_zps2b23hb2w.png

I know the NCAR ensemble made its comeback for severe weather ops, but it is on board for lower elevation accumulations too.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Depending on their elevation, Wayland prob had more than 6" in May '77. 

Beford coop had 9.5" just a couple towns northeast and then well south in Franklin had 8"+. There was a coop report of 5" in Framingham but it looks a bit low to me given the other totals. It's possible the Framingham reading was taken on lake cochituate or something which may have lowered the total. Parts of wayland border that lake too so lower totals could have been there. Or they didn't take the measurement until well after the event ended. 

Regardless...6" would have caused immense damage anyway. 

Lol I read the post and was thinking wayland def had more given Bedford’s 9.5” but only Will would go That detailed .

Will is there any potential for this to surprise to upside and what areas and what scenarios would be required , if you could elaborate pleaseeeeee

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 There is definitely some mangled shit in this rain right now in the bright pending on the expressway. 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lol I read the post and was thinking wayland def had more given Bedford’s 9.5” but only Will would go That detailed .

Will is there any potential for this to surprise to upside and what areas and what scenarios would be required , if you could elaborate pleaseeeeee

It could surprise but I want to see H5 a bit further south if we're talking SNE. The upper and mid levels looks better for CNE and Maine. 

In order to get SNE in the game for more than slop above 800 or 1000 feet...maybe have this travel just a tick south and deeper...give me some big time omega in the DGZ and then we could see some surprises. 

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

snowacc_mean_f060_NE_zps2b23hb2w.png

I know the NCAR ensemble made its comeback for severe weather ops, but it is on board for lower elevation accumulations too.

Put that 10 year “I didn’t get fired” recognition to work! I’m getting interested here.  Perhaps excited for something historic.

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Just now, Arnold214 said:

Put that 10 year “I didn’t get fired” recognition to work! I’m getting interested here.  Perhaps excited for something historic.

tenor.gif?itemid=7967032

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Depending on their elevation, Wayland prob had more than 6" in May '77. 

Beford coop had 9.5" just a couple towns northeast and then well south in Franklin had 8"+. There was a coop report of 5" in Framingham but it looks a bit low to me given the other totals. It's possible the Framingham reading was taken on lake cochituate or something which may have lowered the total. Parts of wayland border that lake too so lower totals could have been there. Or they didn't take the measurement until well after the event ended. 

Regardless...6" would have caused immense damage anyway. 

The folks lived in the extreme SE part of Wayland near Rt 30 and the Weston line.  I'm sure their measuring was not that accurate too.  I think that storm was the benchmark of late storms in E Mass and the early October storm (around 1980??) was the benchmark on the other end.  Of the 2 storms, I wonder which was the most unusual as compared to climatology?

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Euro goes to town up here.  Clown map for a 10/1 ratio which I would doubt but looks like snow whitening ground on Tuesday AM.  Just got finished cutting all the birch that were damaged in Dec.  

nh.jpg

Wow--even Pit2 getting into the action on that.

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3 minutes ago, Arnold214 said:

Put that 10 year “I didn’t get fired” recognition to work! I’m getting interested here.  Perhaps excited for something historic.

If I zoom in I live in one of those light green/yellow patches.  Weatherwise it is something to be excited for.  Trend is your friend and that has gotten colder as we get closer.  

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34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What was 2002

if you grab one of those bands I see 32-33 Snow pounding your fanny to the tune of 3” currently 

I think that was the year I got 2-4”.   Albany area got croaked. 

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

If I zoom in I live in one of those light green/yellow patches.  Weatherwise it is something to be excited for.  Trend is your friend and that has gotten colder as we get closer.  

Indeed. I wonder what the leafout situation is in the Monadnocks. Could be the right combination of heavy wet snow there and leafout?

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1 minute ago, Arnold214 said:

Indeed. I wonder what the leafout situation is in the Monadnocks. Could be the right combination of heavy wet snow there and leafout?

I’ll send photos Tues am

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1 minute ago, Arnold214 said:

Indeed. I wonder what the leafout situation is in the Monadnocks. Could be the right combination of heavy wet snow there and leafout?

Pretty light.  I’m further south and leaves are pretty small. Lots of just buds.  

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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

If I zoom in I live in one of those light green/yellow patches.  Weatherwise it is something to be excited for.  Trend is your friend and that has gotten colder as we get closer.  

I mean 1100 ft is a really good spot.

If I just pick our national blend temps at 09z Tue, the AVERAGE temp for all grid points 1000 ft and higher is 36. 

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9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

The folks lived in the extreme SE part of Wayland near Rt 30 and the Weston line.  I'm sure their measuring was not that accurate too.  I think that storm was the benchmark of late storms in E Mass and the early October storm (around 1980??) was the benchmark on the other end.  Of the 2 storms, I wonder which was the most unusual as compared to climatology?

The May '77 storm was a lot more anomalous because of the amounts. The early October 1979 storm didn't have much more than a couple to 3 inches in the lower elevations of E MA while 1977 had 8-10" in many spots. ORH did have 7.5" in the '79 storm but the May '77 storm had over a foot there with 20" just north of ORH  

 

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The airmass isn’t really modifying either. If anything the source region is there near Maine. As the flow pulls more from the NE and drier air works in again, that will flash 925 to -1 or so again. Throw that against the east slopes with upslope helping to cool, and it’s certainly looking interesting up there. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The airmass isn’t really modifying either. If anything the source region is there near Maine. As the flow pulls more from the NE and drier air works in again, that will flash 925 to -1 or so again. Throw that against the east slopes with upslope helping to cool, and it’s certainly looking interesting up there. 

Kanc Krusher? Or monads mauler . Deciding where to drive 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The airmass isn’t really modifying either. If anything the source region is there near Maine. As the flow pulls more from the NE and drier air works in again, that will flash 925 to -1 or so again. Throw that against the east slopes with upslope helping to cool, and it’s certainly looking interesting up there. 

Euro pops a big area of negative 925 temps by 06-09z. NAM supports that with a similar area of 950s below zero. The GFS, as usual, has that mixed layer near the surface that is keeping 950s warm. 

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