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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Fish didn’t do well for this week no doubt. But the cold BN calls from others aren’t working out either. Month finishes slightly AN and other than today it’s a mild to warm week. And you get 3 more good rain events which you like. So everyone’s a winner 

Yeah?

Looks BN in 98% of New England, except the BDL/BDR tarmac.

MonthTDeptNRCC.png.8a654f87a49d23a4b595005358ae71c8.png

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Fish AND I didn’t do well for this week no doubt. But the cold BN calls from others aren’t working out either. Month finishes slightly AN and other than today it’s a mild to warm week. And you get 3 more good rain events which you like. So everyone’s a winner 

Edit, see above.  Also, why deflect (especially when it's another easily disproved claim)?  Just own up to a blown wishcast and move on.  You wouldn't get trolled so much and the forum would be a little more pleasant.

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2 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Edit, see above.  Also, why deflect (especially when it's another easily disproved claim)?  Just own up to a blown wishcast and move on.  You wouldn't get trolled so much and the forum would be a little more pleasant.

I haven’t seen anyone trolling me . We’re all just having good natured weather discussions , enjoying our passion and time with one another. Good day friend !

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34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Fish didn’t do well for this week no doubt. But the cold BN calls from others aren’t working out either. Month finishes slightly AN and other than today it’s a mild to warm week. And you get 3 more good rain events which you like. So everyone’s a winner 

Yea agree....you and Fishy have had a very bad spring so far, but plenty of time to turn it around when we eventually stay in the 80s and 90s this summer. 

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea agree....you and Fishy have had a very bad spring so far, but plenty of time to turn it around when we eventually stay in the 80s and 90s this summer. 

Yeah, All 4 weeks of the heat, Got the tractor stuck mowing the lawn for the first time this season, But it was like 2' tall in spots and had to use the push mower on several parts, More rain on the way won't help matters out but at least we salvaged a decent weekend finally.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

When it's 80s or hotter, we know who will nail the forecast.  At least the consistency means that type of forecast will eventually be right.  Just like in winter whenever an event over-performs, certain folks will always get that forecast right.

I'm going to go out on a limb and call for 80's in July and August.  And you are correct every system that looks like a dusting to maybe an inch will be an area wide 1-3 2-4 lollis to 6. 99 percent of them will be flurries to a dusting but the one that overperforms will have someone proclaiming how great a "forecaster" he is....and how no one but him can recognize the pattern.

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17 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm going to go out on a limb and call for 80's in July and August.  And you are correct every system that looks like a dusting to maybe an inch will be an area wide 1-3 2-4 lollis to 6. 99 percent of them will be flurries to a dusting but the one that overperforms will have someone proclaiming how great a "forecaster" he is....and how no one but him can recognize the pattern.

Like Dirty Harry(Clint Eastwood) used to say....some folks are legends in their own mind.   

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18 hours ago, MJOatleast7 said:

I believe the former director of the Hayden Planetarium in New York (which is now Neil deGrasse Tyson's gig) retired there, at the Smoke Rise community

Would not be surprising.  Many years back the director emeritus of the American Museum of Natural History retired to the south part of Kinnelon, and was helpful in confirming that the 8-inch "worms" picked up on a nearby Lake Rickabear parking lot were indeed baby copperheads.  (Only time I've seen copperheads outside of cages was that hot dry 1966 summer.)

Tickled 32 this morning, though the thin overcast pushed temps to mid 30s by the time I got up at 5 AM.

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I was looking at that NAM's 12z thermal profiles over PHL and comparing them to Logan...  It's amazing how different that appeal is over the next couple of days.  It could be 88/72 down there ... today, tomorrow, and the next day, while Boston struggles to get above 60. 

Odds are it won't be as bad as the models paint ... maybe.  I mean, a splash or two of sun at this time of year, that can bust a MOS gloom by a little.  That said, there's a synoptic limit to how much 'better' that means sensible conditions could get too. 

We still have a hemispherically anchored vortex over the lower Maritime of eastern Canada ... pinned under some sort of quasi- negative NAO ... and the curved flow around the western and southwester regions of that feature - both now and in the means since April - is confluent with the westerlies. This SE ridge now only makes it worse.  Overall, again a situation we've seen set up with anomalous frequency this spring. 

It's tough to argue against that being a real pattern mode when observing repetition and consistency the way we have ... Not that anyone is, just sayn'. 

Yeah, others have brought this up ..opined.  Just re-affirming.  It's been a blocky spring ...and early on it appears destined to at least begin as a blocking summer. Every year seems to have a different sort of 'magic week' where you just sort of look up and realize everything's different and there's no turning back. I still don't really sense that's taken place.. nor do I believe it will so long as the fore-mentioned persists.  Despite this recent last weekend's sinfully delicious balm we bathed in across all three of the commensurate holiday weekend days.  That is almost unheard of, by the way. Invariably, ... Mem Day weekends tend to taint at least part of the way.  But racking up three top-6 days, back to back... In a twisted way it for some reason makes perfect sense that in a spring plagued by -NAO blocking vomit, that is the year that scores the whole way.  

Anyway, the NAM is putting down a significant wet snow event for Meteorological pube distances N of NE/lower Maritimes on this 12z ... I just think the circulation of the planet is sick ( as in 'ill') and this shit really should not be happening in the absence of accelerating geological or extra-geological factors ..  

But therein is a Pandora's box of philosophical debate as to what qualifies as a geo factor.  I mean, it took the planet some 3 billion years to stow all this carbon ... and Humanity, despite all its conceits, is not really separate from this planet as a force.  And as such...forcing so much of that stow back into aerosol and whatever forms, in only 500 year, give or take - seemin' kinda risky, huh.  Heaving it back into the open reactive environment, ...seems on a some level to be a geological force in its own rite.   And yes,... I think these October and May weird cold with precip loading events can somehow physically be causally linked to that disruption..  

Here's the insidious aspect of this, though. It's hidden in a lot of ways.  We are seeing a cold pattern that's still obvious to ongoing synoptic monitoring, spanning months ( repeating in springs across different years) but the anomalies don't reflect.  

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No warm sector...  but, in referencing the NAM, the synoptics offer a better complexion tomorrow and probably the first half of Thursday compared to the discrete products like the MOS/FOUS and so forth.   

Won't get into the warm sector VIP lounge but should the sun bare a presence at this time of year ...and considering it's not exactly "cold" at 850mb ..it'll may bust at least salvageable - we're in the sun-correction months now. 

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42 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The NAM says most of us may not even get a taste of this warm sector. Maritime wedgie through Thursday, cold fropa Thu night, and then deep into the CAA by daytime Friday.

Anomalous 850mb air mass on the NAM for Friday. 

IMG_3293.thumb.PNG.668a8bbeabc35215e1dcaa3a54112ab9.PNG

Cold at sub 0C. 

IMG_3294.thumb.PNG.718fa971ef71a028dd8f8cee1f7c7524.PNG

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