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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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8 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Ya it holds the rain back until the evening/nighttime allowing temps to warm up during the day. Sadly most other models disagree with that though. 

Well, the Euro does bring 60s into CT from what I can see on the free stuff...but pretty wet...   Oh well, at least the weekend looks decent

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if this is like a top 10 or 5 season for many of those areas. I've never really paid attention to snow in these areas but from what I've read about like Donner Pass (at the Summit) they've only had a handful of times passing 700''. I think the month of February alone produce like 200-300'' in spots lol

Mammoth summit at 715

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'Course ...then there's a 'nother school of thinking ...

Someone is way overzealous with trough depth over southern/SE Canada  :whistle:    ... not like we haven't seen such a gross display by that particular guidance, over that particular geographic region of the planet before so ... heh.    

image.thumb.png.01c120227547a6f24dc6b1018e47c5a2.png

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18 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Wednesday could be a decent svr day. 

Could ... being the operative word.  Still another way...  things have to break just right for that... cuz that's precariously close to BD ending anything fun to look out until year from next August 

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Could ... being the operative word.  Still another way...  things have to break just right for that... cuz that's precariously close to BD ending anything fun to look out until year from next August 

The gfs look pretty dangerous and there is at least some multi-model support. Climo peak doesn't hurt either.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ahh never really thought about it.  I would've guessed that would be later more in line with higher climo temps/dews for fuel.

Yeah, I am just going off memory. Mostly SW of us but May 25-June 5th is a hotbed of high-end stuff. 1985, 1995, 1998? come to mind

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Essentially ... 0 chance of convection on the 18z GFS for next Wednesday -  ... thankfully for that agenda, it's still 5 days away.

For one, the models seem to be spinning up a baroclinic wave over the eastern Lakes and diving it ESE through New England overnight into Wednesday morning... It's spurious in nature how/why the do this... and could very well be way over done. I don't doubt there'll be a warm frontal arm extending east through southern Ontario/NYS and central NE with or without a wave rippling along it... The models just can't resist kinking that feature ..utilizing shrapnel vorticity pieces to do it.   Anyway, if that's over done, than that backside lobe of Gulf of Maine sludge never backs down to NYC and that's a massive day 5 bust. 

Yeah...all possible from this range. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Essentially ... 0 chance of convection on the 18z GFS for next Wednesday -  ... thankfully for that agenda, it's still 5 days away.

For one, the models seem to be spinning up a baroclinic wave over the eastern Lakes and diving it ESE through New England overnight into Wednesday morning... It's spurious in nature how/why the do this... and could very well be way over done. I don't doubt there'll be a warm frontal arm extending east through southern Ontario/NYS and central NE with or without a wave rippling along it... The models just can't resist kinking that feature ..utilizing shrapnel vorticity pieces to do it.   Anyway, if that's over done, than that backside lobe of Gulf of Maine sludge never backs down to NYC and that's a massive day 5 bust. 

Yeah...all possible from this range. 

Looks primed on the 18z gfs. The multi-day/faceted events that are well-modeled, I'll roll with it. Timing differences aside.

I am speaking for WNE, generally

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Could be some nocturnal activity along that warm push in the wee hours of Sunday morning ... and someone Sunday afternoon may end up under an intense DBZ core with tall cloud integral. 

Wednesday?  Nothing and that's western NE too. That's the way it looks now. Should the modeling change ... okay

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39 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

October through April = no tornadoes

May through September = max1-2 tornadoes per New England state, many years zero.

 Woah, I had no idea we were in deep tornado season.

Ya...a lot of nonsense going around here of late. All the talk of the summer weather we have been Having since late March, and now we’re deep into/peak of severe season lol...????? 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya...a lot of nonsense going around here of late. All the talk of the summer weather we have been Having since late March, and now we’re deep into/peak of severe season lol...????? 

Must mean fall starts after July 4th?

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21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Lol, my aunt and uncle had a house up in the Lakes Region in the 70's and 80's and I remember they and their neighbors used to joke about that.  "after Fourth of July the summer is practically over"

Ya I mean days starting to get a lot shorter so ya they're right.   Summer is from memorial day to July 4, after that it's downward spiral 

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32 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Lol, my aunt and uncle had a house up in the Lakes Region in the 70's and 80's and I remember they and their neighbors used to joke about that.  "after Fourth of July the summer is practically over"

Yup..a lot of the old timers loved to say that. My grandfather used to joke around with that too. 

 

11 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Ya I mean days starting to get a lot shorter so ya they're right.   Summer is from memorial day to July 4, after that it's downward spiral 

On the 4th of July...the days haven’t lost much time at all at that point!!  But a couple weeks past that, that’s when you can start to notice the lost time in the evening. 

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