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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What? Sunny and warm both days. Put NWS away . 70’s all weekend . So much bad info out there 

IDK....We cloud up during the afternoon and probably get some downpours and thunder moving in by late afternoon. I don't think this yields much sun (from central CT)

2019052106_GFS_108_41.74,-73.03_severe_m

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I still think later Thursday has a sneaky shot at convection concerns..   The synoptic evolution is not quite there yet, but it's close... closer than I suspect has yet occurred to very many.  It's also trending over the last couple of GFS operational cycles. The Euro actually looks like it is there already. 

Basically, the last couple of runs have bumped that NW-SE diving cyclone along an increasingly latitude ..while it's governing mid/U/A level mechanics position the region favorably wrt to S/W entrance regions.   I was noticing MOS products yesterday were abhorishly cool again ... yet have popped all the way back to 70s SW zones to 69's  in S NH ...  probably backing us into a notion that an ephemeral warm sector is close by around 2pm Thursday afternoon.  In fact, KEWR (Newar N Jersey... ) is putting up a 76 ..  Meanwhile, heights fall and the mid level jet max arrives with a 90 deg positive shear rotation from 0-12km

I feel if this corrects another skosh polarward with the warm sector intrusion and we get into the mid 70s with that look of bulk shear ..that's not a bad climo look for strafing the region with bow segmented windy hailers.  Again, we're at the door stop of setting that up but need another bump -  

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38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK....We cloud up during the afternoon and probably get some downpours and thunder moving in by late afternoon. I don't think this yields much sun (from central CT)

2019052106_GFS_108_41.74,-73.03_severe_m

Man more bad info.  So much bad info out there.

Put all guidance away, stop looking at the NWS, it's going to be great I tell ya and no one is ruining that for me.

Sounds like a certain politician in here trying to sell nice weather instead of tariffs. 

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Okay... SPC has a hashed region of Slight that's climate-truncated over western New England for their D3 outlook which I assume to be Thursday... I wouldn't be shocked if that has to get redrawn east if these subtle trends continue...  Just something to keep and eye on if you are into that sort of thing..

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I still think later Thursday has a sneaky shot at convection concerns..   The synoptic evolution is not quite there yet, but it's close... closer than I suspect has yet occurred to very many.  It's also trending over the last couple of GFS operational cycles. The Euro actually looks like it is there already. 

Basically, the last couple of runs have bumped that NW-SE diving cyclone along an increasingly latitude ..while it's governing mid/U/A level mechanics position the region favorably wrt to S/W entrance regions.   I was noticing MOS products yesterday were abhorishly cool again ... yet have popped all the way back to 70s SW zones to 69's  in S NH ...  probably backing us into a notion that an ephemeral warm sector is close by around 2pm Thursday afternoon.  In fact, KEWR (Newar N Jersey... ) is putting up a 76 ..  Meanwhile, heights fall and the mid level jet max arrives with a 90 deg positive shear rotation from 0-12km

I feel if this corrects another skosh polarward with the warm sector intrusion and we get into the mid 70s with that look of bulk shear ..that's not a bad climo look for strafing the region with bow segmented windy hailers.  Again, we're at the door stop of setting that up but need another bump -  

Looks pretty decent across NY/PA...though I am bit concerned over lack of stronger s/w support. 

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