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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Sweep 'em


Monday ...

Warm sector airmass fully entrenched across the region with dew pts
in the 60s and 925 mb temps of +20C to +22C per GFS and EC. This
will support highs well into the 80s, thus will go warmer than
guidance given this warm airmass and strong SW flow. This warm
sector airmass will be accompanied by CAPES of around 1000 j/kg.
Thus will have to watch short wave moving thru the eastern Great
Lakes and its attending cold front sweeping across southern New
England late Mon/Mon evening. Fairly strong wind field aloft
combined with modest instability and surface convergence may trigger
a few strong storms. Too far out in time to say much more but
definitely will have to be watched.
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Just now, powderfreak said:

As was discussed yesterday, you should stop looking at these as it's hitting your pleasure circut.  

:lol: 

I actually do look at them pretty frequently...except the Kuchera one though...that one is brutal. I don't really look at it though for the projected amounts...I just use it to gauge where the heaviest snow may fall (I think that sort of works well...and maybe that's what the overall intent is)...but using it to forecast snowfall amounts...I think that's when it become more garbage than helpful. 

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This spring has been uniquely screwing the New England region... 

We haven't had really very many ( if at all ...) proper back door fronts set up and swath thru ... we've just been defaulted inside the dammed ( and 'damned') cool murk air masses from the get-go.. 

Today is a bust here in SNE... Not sure if y'allz covered it ... but it wasn't supposed to be this wet/cool with back-building ceilings in the general assemble voice from yesterday ... whether machine or man.  The NAM FRH grid suggest some sun from 8am through 2pm and that has failed horribly... and the MOS was over 68 S of CON, NH by now ... failed.. 

Now, sat does suggest thinning sweeps in from WNW as I type and with high sun/long days we might get a small boost in a bit... but by and large, this is trampling on the backs of the bruised.  

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It's almost as though the hemispheric circulation regime over our side has wended its way into a circumstance where the NAO domain gets to dictate the daily variability .. pretty much entirely.  

The problem therein is, ... the models notoriously can't handle that particular domain very accurately.. and this last five days is/has proven no different.  Every other run cycle seems to reposition the -NAOness west or east of neutral ... and that matters, hugely.  The PNA wants to balloon heights over eastern N/A mid and lower latitudes...  and this is reflected very well in the operational GFS/Euro/GGEM..etc..  But, when they start tending the -NAO toward the western limb... the N-jet ablates the ridge arc and shunts any warm up south of NE...  Now is one of those times...  A couple days ago, the eastern limb was favored, and heights were concomitantly edged far enough N to at least kiss our region with substantive warmth/convection...  

The non-scientific paranoid approach:  the way this spring has come to pass thus far ... unrelenting always disappointing at least excuse imaginable... that makes it very hard to believe that the region is destined to see any of this ridge/warm up beyond lies in the models at any time before June 1... But again ...there's supposed to be a reality where other probabilities are in that debate.  Heh

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Interesting .. the Euro operational suggested this last night ... this run it's buying in hard - Sunday's a rare look.  That eastern arm of that warm boundary does not typically lift through New England that way when you have a tandem Lakes cutter... The eastern end of the warm front almost always turns coat and floods back SW toward NYC ... But that 12z chart is only going one way, and that is substantially above the American cluster's ideas on that particular day.   It's got +13C to Essex Co and going up during the day, under which there is a deep SW flow and lots of sun suggested...   I mean, NAM MOS is like 72 at FIT... This Euro run looks like it would have to bust that by a clean 15 -

Am I seeing things here? 

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