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May 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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When even the GFS shows a backed low-level flow...ouch. Not totally convinced we see numerous tornadoes Friday evening across the Plains (storm mode and coverage will be key) I think we are going to see a significant number of hail reports...and >2'' hail reports (wonder if we can see some top 4''?)

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K.. so ... or the few of us legit into monitoring the arrival of summer and taking interest ...

The operational Euro and GFS have managed to at last maintain a ridge at frames < D9 for once.  We've seen bouts of transient ridging ripple through the east but I'm talking about anchored r-wave positioning...

The GEFs teleconnectors ...as of last night, do not support that look at first glance at the numbers... however, this -NAO plague appears to be repositioning the positive height anomalies over the eastern limb...and with the PNA neutralizing and or sinking negative ... that tandem arrangement does offer support of height rises - seeing as the tele correlations have not completely broken down ... yet. 

So we'll see...  But next week actually has a chance to break into a different sensible universe

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

K.. so ... or the few of us legit into monitoring the arrival of summer and taking interest ...

The operational Euro and GFS have managed to at last maintain a ridge at frames < D9 for once.  We've seen bouts of transient ridging ripple through the east but I'm talking about anchored r-wave positioning...

The GEFs teleconnectors ...as of last night, do not support that look at first glance at the numbers... however, this -NAO plague appears to be repositioning the positive height anomalies over the eastern limb...and with the PNA neutralizing and or sinking negative ... that tandem arrangement does offer support of height rises - seeing as the tele correlations have not completely broken down ... yet. 

So we'll see...  But next week actually has a chance to break into a different sensible universe

Please let it be so.

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That would be my ideal Apr-Nov climate with a CNE climate during Dec-Mar.

I would love that climate during the winter lol. I used to really love winter and cold didn't bother me too much but over the last several years I really can't tolerate it anymore. 

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11 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Please let it be so.

Ha!  ...yeah... patience' are drawn out ...

Frankly, even though the last month's annoying weather has averaged a fair pube better than 2005's rectal journey ... by comparison alone, still if we manage even 70 highs for more than a single afternoon, with 50% sun splashing?  That may subjectively should really qualify as a different sensible universe... 

I clarify that because think of that hyperbole ...  typical with any public consumption of word choice, that's a prediction of 32" of heat  :)     I don't mean 90 is all I'm sayn' ... I just mean not < 60 or even 50 with consummate mist and strata street heavens all the damn time.  And we'll bide time to see if we can gather up higher temps than that base-line.  

This ridge is still present in the operational runs...  Reiterating, one aspect about the recent hemispheric synoptic handling is that the -NAO heights appear to be morphing toward a more easterly biased orientation - that in its self could be bullshit but we'll see.  If so, together with a falling PNA ... does offer some wave spacing clue that heights may be rising over eastern N/A longitudes - that's why the operational runs have merit in my mind. Previous attempts to do so were not nearly as well footed by the eight of ensemble...etc..etc..   How much ..how little goes the ridge?  Usually headaches. The 00z cycles deflated said ridge by just enough to win at satisfying tele's while still 'getting to' butt bang New England ... It seems come hell or high water, that agenda is always going on haha...  

I'm not sure how the 'brain' of the GFS MOS is really constructed.  They must be taking taking the synoptics and somehow integrating a climate signal...one that is weighted heavier out in time... But the 00z numbers were above climate the whole way after D2 or 3 out to the end for interior sites...  

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