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TeaysValleyWV

Pittsburgh PA Area Spring and Summer 2019

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Graphic for MPD #0457

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0457
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191902Z - 200102Z

Summary...Developing thunderstorms along a west/east boundary this
afternoon will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and hourly
totals 1-2". Some localized flash flooding will be possible.

Discussion...Surface analysis this afternoon showed a weak area of
low pressure across northwest PA with a warm front through
northern PA. A weak trough was analyzed along the Appalachians.
These boundaries...combined with daytime heating...is contributing
to scattered/numerous thunderstorms that are slowly moving
east/northeast.

The environment is characterized by MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg
along a zone of favorable effective shear (30-35 kts). Recent
blended TPW product imagery showed values 1.5 to 1.7" across much
of PA.

Overall, the latest hi-res guidance is in good agreement showing
several west to east swaths of heavy rainfall through 01z, with
amounts of 1-3" most likely. The 12z HREF probabilities of hourly
QPF exceeding 2 inches peaking in the late afternoon (22-00z) with
values of 20-40 percent, mostly over south-central PA. There is
slight signal for 3" in 1 hour across the same area as well.

Much of the outlook area is relatively wet with the 7-day
departures being 200-400 percent of normal. This has contributed
to higher than normal streamflow and soil saturation as well as
lower FFG values which could be met with the hourly rates. As
such, some instances of flash flooding will be possible,
especially across urban/sensitive areas this afternoon into the
early evening hours.

Taylor

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MD 1230 graphic

Mesoscale Discussion 1230
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1048 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KY...southwestern
   VA...western/central WV...much of OH...and southwestern PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 241548Z - 241745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds
   appear increasingly likely this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely
   by 18Z (1 PM CDT/2 PM EDT).

   DISCUSSION...A well-formed MCV from earlier convection will continue
   quickly northeastward from middle TN into central/eastern KY this
   afternoon. Clouds have mostly cleared across eastern KY into
   southern OH late this morning, and diurnal heating will allow for a
   rapid increase in instability early this afternoon with a very moist
   low-level airmass in place. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg appears likely
   through peak heating, with more cloud cover over eastern OH,
   northern WV, and western PA delaying destabilization until a bit
   later this afternoon as clouds decrease in coverage from southwest
   to northeast. Around 35-50 kt of mid-level flow will be present
   across these regions in association with both the MCV and a
   larger-scale upper trough moving over the TN/OH Valleys. One or more
   thunderstorm clusters will likely develop over central/eastern KY
   and move northeastward through the afternoon and early evening,
   posing mainly a scattered damaging wind threat. There is also some
   concern for isolated tornadoes in proximity to the circulation of
   the MCV, where low-level flow should be locally backed to
   southeasterly. This will potentially enhance 0-1 km SRH, and any
   initially more discrete storm development could produce a tornado.
   With convection beginning to strengthen along the TN/KY border into
   eastern KY, watch issuance is likely within the next couple of hours
   (by 18Z).

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 06/24/2019

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WW0440 Radar

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   335 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Ohio
     Western Pennsylvania
     Northern West Virginia

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over Ohio will track northeastward across
   the watch area this afternoon, with an increasing risk of damaging
   winds in the strongest cells.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
   statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north
   northwest of Zanesville OH to 25 miles northeast of Latrobe PA. For
   a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
   cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   24035.

   ...Hart

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
415 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 500 PM EDT.

* At 415 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Brentwood, or
  near Pittsburgh, moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter-size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
           damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power
           outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pittsburgh...                     Penn Hills...
  Mount Lebanon...                  Bethel Park...
  Monroeville...                    McKeesport...
  Plum...                           West Mifflin...
  North Side Pittsburgh...          Baldwin...
  Wilkinsburg...                    Whitehall...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter indoors and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

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That microburst over Allegheny county Friday evening was the first one I've experienced first-hand. It's remarkable how rapidly the sky shifted from a pristine blue to to grey. I thought the maple next door was going to come down, but she held out.  Anyone else catch how the warning area's western boundary "backed up" to cover the outburst? When I saw that I got really giddy and excited, like I felt in the '98 tornado.  

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MD 1395 graphic

Mesoscale Discussion 1395
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of IN...far southern Lower
   MI...OH...WV...western PA...and far northern KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061836Z - 062100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Very isolated instances of gusty winds could occur through
   the rest of the afternoon into the early evening. Watch issuance is
   not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A very weak perturbation embedded within mid-level
   westerly flow has encouraged scattered thunderstorm development this
   afternoon across parts of northern/central IN into northwestern OH
   along and south of a cold front. With a moderately unstable airmass
   in place across this region, these storms will be capable of
   producing gusty winds perhaps up to 35-40 kt, as observed by a wind
   gust to 36 kt around 17Z at KDFI in northwestern OH. Regardless, no
   more than 15-25 kt of westerly flow is present from the surface
   through about 6 km AGL per area VWPs and recent mesoanalysis
   estimates. This will limit any meaningful bulk shear and potential
   for greater updraft organization. Still, very isolated instances of
   strong/gusty downdraft winds capable of producing mainly tree damage
   cannot be ruled out through the rest of the afternoon into the early
   evening as storms move generally east-southeastward across portions
   of the OH Valley into the Appalachians where instability is
   maximized.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/06/2019

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Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
PAC003-129-070000-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FF.W.0056.190706T2102Z-190707T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
502 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  West central Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 502 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain in the warned area.
  Flash flooding is occurring in the area.

  FLASH FLOODING...     Expected.

  ESTIMATED RAINFALL... Up to 2 inches.

  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...Up to 1 inch.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Pittsburgh...                     Penn Hills...
  Mount Lebanon...                  Bethel Park...
  Monroeville...                    McKeesport...
  Plum...                           West Mifflin...
  North Side Pittsburgh...          Baldwin...
  Upper St. Clair...                Murrysville...

This includes the following highways...
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 53 and 65.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 51 and 62.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 55 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown. Most flood fatalities occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 7967 4025 7991 4033 8017 4047 8034
      4049 7966

$$

CL

 

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Jeez...on the forecast discussion from KPIT currently I’ve never seen such strong wording. Literally said anymore rain would be devastating for low lying areas. 

 

It was awful this morning. Another couple inches would be awful.

 

 

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Guess it's going to get fairly warm after the remnants of Barry roll through.  Personally, I think a bigger deal is being made out of it than need be.  But hey.. I like it when people are talking about the weather.

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8 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Guess it's going to get fairly warm after the remnants of Barry roll through.  Personally, I think a bigger deal is being made out of it than need be.  But hey.. I like it when people are talking about the weather.

They way they have whiffed on this thing. I get this strange feeling one of those training bands is going to sit right on Johnstown.

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Excessive Heat Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
321 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-510-180330-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.EH.A.0001.190719T1600Z-190721T0000Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-
Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz,
Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry,
St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage,
Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle,
Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville,
Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area,
Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana, Washington, Canonsburg,
Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Uniontown,
Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville,
New Martinsville, Fairmont, Morgantown, and Coopers Rock
321 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued an
Excessive Heat Watch, which is in effect from Friday afternoon
through Saturday evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Near or above 105 due to temperatures in
  the mid 90s, and dewpoints in the mid 70s.

* TIMING...Friday afternoon into early evening, and again
  Saturday afternoon into early evening.

* IMPACTS...Heat stroke, heat exhaustion and other heat related
  illnesses will be possible, especially if you spend a
  significant amount of time outdoors, or are involved in any
  strenuous outdoor activity.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Excessive Heat Watch means that a prolonged period of hot
temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and
high humidity will combine to create a DANGEROUS SITUATION in
which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay
in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on
relatives and neighbors.

&&

$$

 

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I was planning on hitting the links Friday or Saturday.. maybe not such a good idea now?  I have played in the heat before, it's just miserable.  And no alcohol, of course.

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Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
326 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075-WVZ021-509-510-190330-
/O.UPG.KPBZ.EH.A.0001.190719T1600Z-190721T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.HT.Y.0001.190719T1600Z-190721T0000Z/
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-
Fayette-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Including the cities of Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City, Oil City,
Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Clarion,
Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge,
Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Indiana,
Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg,
New Kensington, Uniontown, Fairmont, Morgantown, and Coopers Rock
326 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from noon Friday to 8 PM EDT
Saturday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Up to 105 due to temperatures in the mid
  90s, and dewpoints in the mid 70s.

* TIMING...Friday afternoon into early evening, and again
  Saturday afternoon into early evening.

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during
  outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible
and drink plenty of water.

&&

$$


Hazardous Weather Outlook

 

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The next 24 hours are the picture perfect summer weather....highs in upper 70s and lows in the 50’s with zero humidity! Looking forward to fall and tracking our first flakes of the season!

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Graphic for MPD #0753

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0753
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Areas affected...portions of the upper OH Valley into southwestern
PA/western MD Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131914Z - 140015Z

Summary...Brief training of showers and thunderstorms could lead
to flash flooding across portions of the upper OH Valley into
southwestern PA/western MD Panhandle through 00Z. Rainfall rates
of 1-2 in/hr will allow for localized 2-3 inch totals across the
region.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery through 1845Z showed a small
cluster of thunderstorms expanding across eastern OH into far
western PA. The convection was located to the south of an 850 mb
low, analyzed over central Lake Erie via regional VAD wind plots
with 20-30 kt of westerly flow from KILN to KPBZ. Breaks in cloud
cover over the upper OH Valley has allowed MLCAPE to increase into
the 500-1000 J/kg range, via 18Z SPC mesoanalysis estimates, over
east-central OH, while values fall off to less than 500 J/kg in
western PA to the north of a warm front. Further increases in
MLCAPE are anticipated through the remainder of the afternoon,
especially over southeastern OH into northern WV where reduced
cloud cover will allow surface temperatures to climb another few
degrees. With precipitable water values of 1.7 to 2.0 inches and
the expected instability, rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr seem likely.

Winds, generally from the west in the LFC-EL layer, are forecast
to average 20-30 kt according to recent runs of the RAP through
00Z. Given 850 mb winds of similar magnitude and direction,
periods of training convection will be possible later this
afternoon into the early evening hours. An eventual clustering and
propagation of storms toward the south is expected as thunderstorm
coverage increases. Therefore, flash flooding appears to be a
threat with 2-3 inch rainfall totals and rates of 1-2 in/hr. These
values are near or in excess of local Flash Flood Guidance values.

Otto

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
259 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 345 PM EDT.

* At 259 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mount
  Lebanon, moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some
           power outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pittsburgh...                     Mount Lebanon...
  Bethel Park...                    McKeesport...
  West Mifflin...                   Baldwin...
  Upper St. Clair...                Scott Township...
  Whitehall...                      South Park Township...
  Munhall...                        Jefferson Hills...

This includes  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 67
and 71, and
  near mile marker 73.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

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Not sure I’ve ever seen a scenario like yesterday afternoon. Just a mention of a brief pop up shower or storm in the forecast. Not a lot of coverage. But one little cell in that blew up just east of the city. Not sure there are any official reports, but based on the video, Lawrenceville had to have seen winds pushing 100 Mph

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So I dont know if it was the same cell but over in springhill I believe a microburst hit. The wind that came down was super impressive to the point that there was zero visibility. It knocked down dozens of big trees and powerlines. Lightning struck constantly for a few minutes. It was really impressive. We had to shut the garage door so it didnt blow anymore inside and ruin the tables. Here's some pics. 

 

xRI2Hn3.jpg

6WMGVzb.jpg

2snUguz.jpg

TxmDnuz.jpg

C78kGHY.jpg

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Remember when September used to be a cool month?  I don't know if data confirms this, but it seems like we're losing four seasons and basically contracting down to two (6 months of summer and 6 months of winter).  Looks like the heat will continue into October again.

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4 hours ago, jwilson said:

Remember when September used to be a cool month?  I don't know if data confirms this, but it seems like we're losing four seasons and basically contracting down to two (6 months of summer and 6 months of winter).  Looks like the heat will continue into October again.

Always remember it being warm the first couple weeks of school (always started after Labor day), but not mid summer like humidity.

 

Side note: Do you remember how much snow you got from the 2/5/10 storm ?

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I remember hot weather into October past several years-especially last when the kids were swimming in the lake around the second week of October while adults had a beach fire....remember temps being warm-I just want consistent 65 highs.....I think Halloween last year I might have been sweating-unless it was the prior

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On 9/13/2019 at 10:15 PM, CoraopolisWx said:

Always remember it being warm the first couple weeks of school (always started after Labor day), but not mid summer like humidity.

 

Side note: Do you remember how much snow you got from the 2/5/10 storm ?

I was still living in Philly at the time, so not sure if that's the information you're after, but we managed a little over 12" (most all of it was on the 6th, but a little fell before midnight).  Our bigger storm was a few days later on the 9th and 10th.  There we pulled >23" and some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen in person, with visibility down to about 200 feet.

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On 9/15/2019 at 4:49 PM, jwilson said:

I was still living in Philly at the time, so not sure if that's the information you're after, but we managed a little over 12" (most all of it was on the 6th, but a little fell before midnight).  Our bigger storm was a few days later on the 9th and 10th.  There we pulled >23" and some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen in person, with visibility down to about 200 feet.

Oh ok, I forgot you were living in Philly back then.

Basically I was just thinking how many years its been since the whole region cashed in on a big storm.

I remember there being a screw zone from about Mt Pleasant to Morgantown, precip stayed rain until about 10pm. Snow totals were closer to 10-15" unfortunately for some folks.

 

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On 9/13/2019 at 5:49 PM, jwilson said:

Remember when September used to be a cool month?  I don't know if data confirms this, but it seems like we're losing four seasons and basically contracting down to two (6 months of summer and 6 months of winter).  Looks like the heat will continue into October again.

I don't really recall it being cool, but typically humidity levels were much more bearable. It does seem like we go from hot to chilly with maybe a week interlude in between now.. This stretch we have now of dry days would have been great with low humidity and temps in the 68-72 degree range. Still beats overcast and rain I guess. One thing this warm weather keeps the growing season going strong, peppers and tomatoes til November? lol

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On 9/13/2019 at 10:15 PM, CoraopolisWx said:

Always remember it being warm the first couple weeks of school (always started after Labor day), but not mid summer like humidity.

 

Side note: Do you remember how much snow you got from the 2/5/10 storm ?

Hard to believe this winter season will mark 10 years since that epic back to back "Snowmageddon" stretch...

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On 9/13/2019 at 10:22 PM, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

I remember hot weather into October past several years-especially last when the kids were swimming in the lake around the second week of October while adults had a beach fire....remember temps being warm-I just want consistent 65 highs.....I think Halloween last year I might have been sweating-unless it was the prior

Halloween is really a tossup, you never know what to expect temp wise, could be snow or could be hot.. Makes planning for kids costumes contingencies a lost cause that's for sure.

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1 hour ago, PghPirates27 said:

And so it begins...

 

87 in Pittsburgh 64 in Erie. This is a taste of whats to come as usual for winter. Always in the screw zone.

 

image.png.3d13f17073e85a93afbd925a84b8e6bd.png

THE WARM TONGUE DOES NOT ABATE!

Seriously though, we had a fairly prolonged period of -NAO through this year (spring/summer).  Hopefully that holds into the winter.  Seems like it has been a while since we've seen the same during the cold seasons.  It would really help our chances.

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