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TeaysValleyWV

Pittsburgh PA Area Spring and Summer 2019

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MD 350 graphic

Mesoscale Discussion 0350
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0457 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern ohio...Western Pennsylvania...and far
   southwest New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 142157Z - 142300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will be needed soon across
   western Pennsylvania and far southwest New York.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms have developed along a pre-frontal
   trough across Ohio ahead of a 990mb surface low analyzed between
   Columbus and Akron. The strongest storms may be producing damaging
   winds at this time. A 20Z PIT sounding is a good proximity sounding
   for the environment ahead of these storms. Buoyancy is quite weak
   with MLCAPE only around 200 J/kg substituting current surface
   observations into the 20Z sounding. Clearing ahead of these storms
   may allow temperatures to warm slightly during the next hour, but as
   the boundary layer deepens, surface dewpoints may fall a few degrees
   due to mixing which would keep buoyancy weak into the evening.
   However, despite this meager instability, the wind profile remains
   very supportive of all severe weather hazards with effective shear
   around 70 knots and 0 to 1 km SRH over 500 m2/s2. This threat will
   likely be maximized near the warm front in northern Pennsylvania and
   southern New York where backed surface flow, and higher dewpoints
   are expected to remain. South of the Pennsylvania border, dewpoints
   have mixed into the mid 50s which has limited instability to less
   than 100 J/kg which has greatly reduced the severe threat.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/14/2019

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Couple more chances for severe upcoming, but thus far this year there hasn't been much locally.  I think June is our peak season, though.

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mcd0785.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0785
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 AM CDT Sat May 25 2019

   Areas affected...western NY...western PA...far eastern OH...northern
   WV and western MD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251653Z - 251900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over
   the next couple of hours. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts are
   possible with the strongest storms, though hail is also possible. A
   watch may be needed in the next few hours across this region.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms were developing early
   this afternoon on the nose of eastward surging boundary layer
   moisture from northwest PA/eastern OH into WV. A warm front was
   lifting northeast across NY/PA/VA just ahead of this convection.
   Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F will spread eastward with time
   today and convection should increase in coverage and intensity as
   continued strong heating and destabilization occurs in strong deep
   layer west/southwesterly flow. Forecast RAP soundings indicated
   steepening low level lapse rates, with 30-40 kt southwest winds
   around 760-700 mb at the top of the mixed boundary layer, suggesting
   strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. While
   midlevel lapse rates are unimpressive, around 6.5-7 C/km at best,
   vertical shear will support rotating updrafts and a few supercell
   structures are possible. This will bring an attendant risk for
   severe hail with the strongest storms. While forecast LCLs are
   relatively high at around 3kft, any storm that interacts with the
   warm front or through favorable cell/outflow interactions, could
   produce a tornado or two given modestly favorable low level
   hodographs and effective SRH around 150-200 m2/s2. Convective trends
   will continue to be monitored and a watch may be needed in the next
   few hours.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/25/2019

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m5mlmLN.gif

SEL3

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 243
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   450 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western Maryland
     Southeast Ohio
     Western Pennsylvania
     Northern West Virginia
     Lake Erie

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over eastern Ohio, and are
   expected to spread eastward across the watch area through the late
   afternoon and evening.  Damaging winds are the main threat, along
   with a risk of some hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest
   of Bradford PA to 60 miles south southeast of Parkersburg WV. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...WW 239...WW
   240...WW 241...WW 242...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   28035.

   ...Hart

 

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
OHC019-029-067-081-PAC003-007-019-073-125-WVC009-029-252345-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0055.190525T2255Z-190525T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
655 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Harrison County in east central Ohio...
  Jefferson County in east central Ohio...
  Southeastern Columbiana County in east central Ohio...
  Southeastern Carroll County in east central Ohio...
  Northwestern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Beaver County in western Pennsylvania...
  Southwestern Lawrence County in western Pennsylvania...
  Southwestern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Northwestern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Northeastern Brooke County in northern West Virginia...
  Hancock County in northern West Virginia...

* Until 745 PM EDT.

* At 654 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Lisbon to 8 miles south of Carrollton, moving
  east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter-size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
           damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power
           outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cranberry...                      Moon Township...
  Weirton...                        Steubenville...
  Butler...                         Franklin Park...
  East Liverpool...                 Aliquippa...
  Beaver Falls...                   Monaca...
  East Palestine...                 Wellsville...

This includes the following highways...
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 9 and 32.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 74 and 91.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 31 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4085 8069 4085 7982 4031 8041 4040 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 269DEG 44KT 4080 8070 4046 8113

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

 

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
735 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

PAC003-007-019-125-252345-
/O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-190525T2345Z/
Washington PA-Beaver PA-Butler PA-Allegheny PA-
735 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN BEAVER...SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER
AND NORTHWESTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTIES...

At 735 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Zelienople to near Toronto, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter-size hail.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
         damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power
         outages.

Locations impacted include...
Cranberry...                      Moon Township...
Butler...                         Franklin Park...
Aliquippa...                      Monaca...
Economy...                        Ambridge...
Wexford...                        Homeacre-Lyndora...
Baden...                          Meridian...

This includes the following highways...
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 21 and 32.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania near mile marker 71, and between
  mile markers 74 and 90.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 40 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4085 7982 4038 8033 4046 8052 4050 8052
      4085 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 269DEG 44KT 4080 8010 4046 8053

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

 

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Tomorrow could be active.  SPC has us in the Enhanced area

 

 National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA

727 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019 && .

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Latest guidance has trended up CAPE values during the afternoon and early evening with HREF mean values over 3000 J/kg across the northern half of the forecast area by mid/late afternoon and slightly lower values to the south. Shear profiles are favorable for organized severe convection...as bowing lines and/or supercells. Damaging wind and hail are the primary threats with dry mid-level air yielding high DCAPE values and sufficient instability from -10C to -20C. Hodographs support tornadic storms as well...with more favorable LCLs across northern zones where ll moisture is expected to pool.

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8 hours ago, north pgh said:

I’m listening to a police scanner out of Montgomery Ohio. Lots of damage from a massive tornado that just went north of Dayton. May be many injuries and fatalities. Very scary.

These Tornadoes that hit overnight are really rough, most people are asleep and get caught totally off guard.

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Appears we'll have clearing this morning resulting in priming up the atmosphere for us this afternoon.  Interesting that NWS discussion mentions that convection movement will be North to South this afternoon.

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Tornado Watch likely in next couple hours according to latest Meso discussion from SPC.

...

...Tornadoes are possible as well, especially for storms that exhibit more
   southeast movement, which will maximize SRH per observed/forecast
   soundings....

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MD 852 graphic

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0852
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 281702Z - 281900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this afternoon and will
   likely become severe. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few
   tornadoes are possible. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the
   next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...A belt of enhanced mid-level westerly flow of 50-70
   knots is stretching across the Great Lakes into the
   Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A shortwave trough embedded within this
   zonal flow currently entering the Great Lakes region will move
   eastward throughout the day helping to provide forcing for ascent
   and strengthen deep layer shear. A surface low is located just
   east-southeast of Buffalo, NY with a warm front stretching to the
   southeast through northeast PA and central NJ. This warm front
   should lift east-northeast with the surface low forecast to track
   generally eastward. The Cu field is becoming increasingly agitated
   within the warm sector and storms are likely to develop in the next
   couple of hours.

   Storms are likely to develop across west/central PA and move
   east-southeast during the afternoon and evening into portions of
   NJ/MD/DE/southern NY. Supercell development is likely and few storms
   may remain discrete. Low-level veering is better to south/east
   across the region, but flow/shear is stronger farther to the north.
   Large hail is possible given forecast MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and
   effective bulk shear of 35-50 knots. Additionally, strong synoptic
   winds and steepening low-level lapse rates, especially where strong
   insolation occurs, will increase the severe wind threat. Tornadoes
   are possible as well, especially for storms that exhibit more
   southeast movement, which will maximize SRH per observed/forecast
   soundings.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 05/28/2019

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MUH2LRu.gif

 SEL4

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   145 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western New Jersey
     Extreme east central Ohio
     Pennsylvania
     The extreme northern West Virginia Panhandle

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected this
   afternoon from Ohio into Pennsylvania, and storms will spread
   generally eastward through this evening.  The storm environment will
   be favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail and
   damaging winds.  A more favorable environment for tornadoes is
   expected across northern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New
   Jersey as the low levels destabilize.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Franklin
   PA to 35 miles north northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 272...WW 273...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
   storm motion vector 29035.

   ...Thompson

 

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46 minutes ago, TeaysValleyWV said:
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

TORNADO WATCH 274 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT for our area

 

 

Peak climo period, along with favorable WNW flow should yield widespread results.

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Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
PAC005-063-281945-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.W.0011.190528T1921Z-190528T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
321 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Indiana County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Armstrong County in west central Pennsylvania...

* Until 345 PM EDT..

* At 320 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 9 miles southeast of Ford City, or 11 miles southeast
  of Kittanning, moving southeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Indiana and Homer City around 345 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Chevy
Chase Heights, Armagh, Lucerne Mines, Creekside, Atwood, Elderton,
Shelocta, Clymer, Yellow Creek State Park and Brush Vly.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4050 7891 4041 7897 4068 7947 4082 7938
      4066 7883
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 302DEG 29KT 4071 7936

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

07

 

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