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April 14 Severe Weather


Sydney Claridge
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Columbus is going to have to watch that area of storms moving in from the south, especially for the eastern half of the metro area.  I believe that was the line that the earlier models really wanted to blow up into something significant.  The HRRR has kind of backed down a bit though, but it is also not handling the storms near Dayton very well either.

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ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
310 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...  
  NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...  
  
* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.  
      
* AT 309 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW CARLISLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
310 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...  
  NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...  
  
* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.  
      
* AT 309 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW CARLISLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  

Looks like that storm has also left behind a gust front from Springfield down towards Xenia. 

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12 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
310 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...  
  NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...  
  
* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.  
      
* AT 309 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW CARLISLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  

Looks nasty on TDAY

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Just now, WxLaura said:

osu's weather station is reporting 78 temps with 62 dew points. iirc forecasted high was only around 73 

John Glenn International is reporting 77 so seems right.  Yeah low 70’s was the call.  Sun still blasting too

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Just now, NTXYankee said:

Does anyone know if a TOG north of Springfield?  Storm has a well defined hook on radar

Nasty hook on reflectivity but velocity is rather meh at the moment. Its getting there though, would not sleep on it. What really has me worried is the possibility of its flanking line and assoc. gust front lighting up as it enters the Columbus area.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0246 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 141946Z - 142045Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN  
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE WITHIN  
THE DISCUSSION AREA. STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE EXPECTED TO  
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING IN AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WIND FIELDS  
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF  
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. THE OVERALL HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE  
CONDITIONAL ON STORM MODE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE  
NEXT HOUR.  
  
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT FROM  
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH  
TIME. AS THE FRONT HAS LIFTED, BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MOISTENING  
HAS OCCURRED. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WITH A COUPLE HOURS LEFT OF  
HEATING, MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG.  
WHILE INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING LESS THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST,  
CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE  
FROM MIXING OUT AS MUCH AS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONGOING STORMS FROM  
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS  
NORTH AND EAST. THEY WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH AROUND 50  
KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL IMPROVE TO AROUND 70 KTS  
AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED  
STORM ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING, ALL  
SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THIS  
SCENARIO WILL BE THE STORM MODE AS MANY CAMS SHOW ONGOING STORMS  
CONGEALING INTO A LINEAR MCS WITH TIME. SHOULD THAT OCCUR, THE HAIL  
AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT. A TORNADO WATCH IS  
LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  

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12 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

What concerns me is that there are presently three lines of storms showing up on the ILN radar.  Each successive line as it moves northeastward will leave a boundary for its successor that could enhance low level helicity.

You can see them across OH on Hi Res Reflectivity

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Make that 3.....

 

 

 

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cleveland OH 452 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 OHC077-139-142130- /O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190414T2130Z/ Huron OH-Richland OH- 452 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HURON AND NORTHERN RICHLAND COUNTIES... At 452 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Shelby, or 12 miles north of Mansfield, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Shelby, New London, Plymouth, Greenwich and Shenandoah. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4085 8266 4099 8272 4108 8266 4107 8243 4099 8244 4099 8242 4089 8241 TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 227DEG 46KT 4093 8258 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...1.25IN $$ Griffin

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E NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EASTERN HURON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...  
  NORTH CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...  
  NORTHWESTERN MEDINA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO...  
  NORTHWESTERN ASHLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...  
  LORAIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...  
  
* UNTIL 545 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 459 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SAVANNAH, OR 10  
  MILES NORTHWEST OF ASHLAND, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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