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4/12/19 - 4/13/19 Dixie Alley Outbreak

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LLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA  
1153 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN SPALDING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
  WESTERN BUTTS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA...  
  
* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT.  
      
* AT 1153 AM EDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR CHAPPEL MILL, OR 8 MILES EAST OF GRIFFIN, MOVING  
  NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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8 mins later...

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1201 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

GAC035-151-141630-
/O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-190414T1630Z/
Henry GA-Butts GA-
1201 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY AND CENTRAL BUTTS COUNTIES...

At 1201 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Jenkinsburg, or near Jackson, moving northeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

 

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Odd juxtaposition of "CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO" with "RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO" with the east-of-Griffin cell.  Usually the confirmed-large-etc source is spotter or EMS.

Meanwhile it's just gusting and damp in S Forsyth County, for now.  Not complaining.

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1 minute ago, SharonA said:

Odd juxtaposition of "CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO" with "RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO" with the east-of-Griffin cell.  Usually the confirmed-large-etc source is spotter or EMS.

Meanwhile it's just gusting and damp in S Forsyth County, for now.  Not complaining.

Could be wrong, but I believe when the CC bottoms out in a couplet they will go ahead and tag it with some combination of confirmed, large, extremely dangerous, etc.

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3 minutes ago, shaggy said:

We've had decent sun here east of I95 this morning so far.

Yeah 80/69 at noon, though the hi res models still keep that line fairly tame as it moves through after midnight when the STP values go nuts, still models show 1000-1500 cape with STP values 5-6 at that time so its tough to know just what kind of storms will be associated with that line......any decent storm is going to be rotating if it gets semi discrete enough....all it takes is one or two to make it a really bad night. 

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30 minutes ago, SharonA said:

Odd juxtaposition of "CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO" with "RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO" with the east-of-Griffin cell.  Usually the confirmed-large-etc source is spotter or EMS.

Meanwhile it's just gusting and damp in S Forsyth County, for now.  Not complaining.

If the CC shows it, then it is confirmed. That basically lets you know that there is debris being lofted and it is on the ground.

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SPC just took all of the SE out of enhanced risk.....

This is all they are saying about overnight 

Ongoing QLCS and clusters from western GA into the eastern FL
   Panhandle will continue to pose a near-term threat for embedded
   brief tornadoes and damaging winds amid strong low-level shear. Some
   of this activity (namely the west-central GA) may persist through
   the afternoon and further develop northeast toward the Carolina
   Piedmont. A broad downstream cirrus canopy will slow boundary-layer
   heating and weak mid-level lapse rates will further curtail
   instability. But the damaging wind/tornado threat should continue
   amid a 50-60 kt low-level jet. 

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27 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

SPC just took all of the SE out of enhanced risk.....

This is all they are saying about overnight 

Ongoing QLCS and clusters from western GA into the eastern FL
   Panhandle will continue to pose a near-term threat for embedded
   brief tornadoes and damaging winds amid strong low-level shear. Some
   of this activity (namely the west-central GA) may persist through
   the afternoon and further develop northeast toward the Carolina
   Piedmont. A broad downstream cirrus canopy will slow boundary-layer
   heating and weak mid-level lapse rates will further curtail
   instability. But the damaging wind/tornado threat should continue
   amid a 50-60 kt low-level jet. 

That kinda surprised me, given the instability available. They overplayed yesterdays event too. (Yes, there were some pretty sig tornadoes, but it was nothing like was what was being depicted with the short term modeling yesterday. Especially over LA. (Edit) There was loss of life and property and I am not downplaying that. It just wasn't over LA. It was TX and MS.

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That was pretty eventful.  Sure didn’t go down as I had thought.  My mother in law lives in Jenkinsburg near Griffin where the TDS was reported.  Not much of anything being reported out of there wrt damage.  

 

Thats a spot is super unlucky.  They got hit with EF3 on 4/27/11 and from the 1908 Dixie alley outbreak in April. 

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Drove threw two tornado warnings on the ride up US 64 from Lake Lure, NC, to Hickory, NC, this afternoon. First was in Rutherford County and second was in either McDowell or Burke County. (Phones alerted us to the warnings.) Rain and wind were intense. But, we never saw any rotation. Had radar up the whole ride to see where we were in location to the warned storm. Not a fun drive...

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

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Talked to my MIL again in Jenkinsburg.  She did report some debris falling from that TDS.  She made it sound like no big deal but I explained what she had witnessed.  She was just off Shiloh road where the TDS was reported.  

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Under a active Tornado Watch.. 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 68 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN NORTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER PENDER ROBESON IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA DARLINGTON DILLON FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION MARLBORO WILLIAMSBURG THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANDREWS, BENNETTSVILLE, BLADENBORO, BOILING SPRING LAKES, BURGAW, CHADBOURN, CONWAY, DARLINGTON, DILLON, ELIZABETHTOWN, FLORENCE, GARDEN CITY, GEORGETOWN, HARTSVILLE, KINGSTREE, LAKE WACCAMAW, LELAND, LITTLE RIVER, LONG BEACH, LUMBERTON, MARION, MCCOLL, MULLINS, MURRELLS INLET, MYRTLE BEACH, NORTH HARTSVILLE, NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, OAK ISLAND, RED HILL, SOCASTEE, SOUTHPORT, SUNSET BEACH, SURF CITY, TABOR CITY, WHITEVILLE, AND WILMINGTON.

-------------------------

Might as Well say the  entire SENC, Northern? South Carolina Coast(s) for this..

Current conditions, We did have Ample amounts of Sunshine  today..

currently 76.8 degrees..

Dewpoint-73F

Humidity @ 81%

Winds (currently) NORTH at steady,  20Mph gust(s) too 35 mph

Expected to veer outta the South/SW in a couple hours @ 15~25 MPH..

Ever get that Ominous feeling with the Weather? It feels NICE,, but... 

Setting outside, peaks of sunshine, yet DARK Clouds building on the horizon?  

 

 

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RAH is pretty bullish on the overnight in their evening HWO and AFD

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this
evening and into the overnight hours, possibly as late as 3 to 4 AM.
The severe weather hazards will include damaging straightline winds,
hail to the size of quarters, and an isolated tornadoes. In 
addition, heavy downpours will lead to extensive ponding of water on 
the roads, and street flooding in urbanized areas.

and

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 810 PM Sunday...

The Tornado Watch expired at 800 PM. The current boundary layer over 
central and eastern NC supports the expected lull in convective 
activity we are experiencing. The main cold front was pushing east 
into the Mountains with an associated QLCS. The line of storms 
extended from Tri Cities Tennessee south to Asheville, moving east 
at 25-30 mph. It appears that the higher dew points and associated 
instability will be enough to allow the line to strengthen as it 
pushes out from the Foothills into the Piedmont in the next few 
hours. The frontal forcing may very well pose a primary risk of 
strong to damaging wind gusts and embedded mesovortices/isolated 
tornadoes as the line affects the Triad region before midnight. We 
will have to wait and see if another Watch will be needed, but it 
appears likely (70 percent or so). The line should progress across 
much of the region overnight, exiting the I-95 corridor well before 
daybreak. Then, windy and much cooler and less humid for Monday!

 

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Models still have really high STP and cape values so you got to worry that if there are any semi discrete cells over the next 3-4 hrs that they could quickly spin up....currently 75/70 with the winds starting to kick up some from the south....

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