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Indystorm

April 11 Severe aspects

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57 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I was a few days ago, since it usually gets held up around I-80 in most cases.

However, it looks like there is significant support for it to make it to at least the IL/WI border during the afternoon.

I'm just still not totally convinced yet that it's going to get all the way to the WI border, even though much of the guidance seems to favor it.  If it does, I would lean on it being delayed... like after 6 pm.  

Counterpoint... there won't be a lot of convection around to impede the northward progress through morning and into afternoon.  

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Timing sucks for those of us more or less east of 65.  Do think we could see a decent QCLS line late along the cold front might at least be a decent light show :unsure: 

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NAM still focusing svr parameters most especially on the Calumet region of nw IN for Thursday late evening.  Saving grace might be timing, squall line mode, and degree of moisture. Where does that WF finally hang up?

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16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Wouldn't mind making a run at the trip point play tomorrow out near Iowa Falls/Waterloo/Cedar Rapids.  HRRR has been pretty insistent on a nice little area of backed winds, and pooled surface moisture in that area.  

Got your boosters strapped for that 50kt SMV? Though I’d probably chase too if I weren’t busy. I’ve been eying tomorrow for the past few days and think we could definitely see a tor or two, especially if the higher instability on the HRRR is realized.

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10 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Got your boosters strapped for that 50kt SMV? Though I’d probably chase too if I weren’t busy. I’ve been eying tomorrow for the past few days and think we could definitely see a tor or two, especially if the higher instability on the HRRR is realized.

Yeah I won't be out either as we're buried at work right now.  If it were the weekend I'd be out there just to get out and shake the rust off.  I'd prob head towards Iowa Falls and wait on the developing arc.  

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Let's all just take a moment of silence for the beauty of today's trough on the 500mb charts and what it could have done with a properly moistened warm sector. I'm thinking 54 years ago today redux wouldn't have been out of the realm of possibility (Although IIRC that one was even stronger, the max I can find today is 110kt while Palm Sunday '65 had >140kt if I'm not mistaken?).

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7 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Let's all just take a moment of silence for the beauty of today's trough on the 500mb charts and what it could have done with a properly moistened warm sector. I'm thinking 54 years ago today redux wouldn't have been out of the realm of possibility (Although IIRC that one was even stronger, the max I can find today is 110kt while Palm Sunday '65 had >140kt if I'm not mistaken?).

Yeah, Palm Sunday had about 140 kts max with 100+ kts leaking out into the prefrontal warm sector.  There was a paper done a few years ago that had a synthetic sounding from South Bend around tornado time and I think it had like 107 kts at 500 mb.

The flow for today's setup is more meridional, and overall, I don't think we would've seen an outcome like Palm Sunday even with better moisture (I guess that is the safer stance to take haha)

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22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'm just still not totally convinced yet that it's going to get all the way to the WI border, even though much of the guidance seems to favor it.  If it does, I would lean on it being delayed... like after 6 pm.  

Counterpoint... there won't be a lot of convection around to impede the northward progress through morning and into afternoon.  

This is looking like the likely outcome at this point.

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is looking like the likely outcome at this point.

2 PM temps from N to S:

UGN 42

ORD 51

JOT 58

IKK 67

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Mesoscale Discussion 0304
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0313 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112013Z - 112115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...At least some increase in severe weather potential is
   expected  with developing thunderstorm activity across parts of
   northern Illinois by the 4-6 PM CDT time frame.  It is possible that
   this threat may remain low enough that a watch is not needed, but
   trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Near/just ahead of the lower/mid tropospheric cold
   front, forcing for ascent appears to be contributing to the ongoing
   increase in thunderstorm activity across northwestern Illinois into
   southwestern Wisconsin.  This activity is largely rooted above a
   near-surface stable layer to the north of the surface warm front,
   with relatively warm mid-levels and weak mid/high level lapse rates
   allowing for only weak CAPE.  

   The band of convection is expected to gradually spread eastward
   during the few hours, with southward development into the warm
   sector of the surface cyclone also possible by 21-23Z.   Even within
   the warm sector, relatively low surface dew points across parts of
   eastern Missouri into west central Illinois are currently resulting
   in negligible boundary layer CAPE.  However, modest low-level
   moisture (reflected by mid 50s+ surface dew points) appears to be
   returning northward/northwestward in a corridor to the
   east/northeast through north of Springfield, into the vicinity of
   the warm front.

   A combination of at least weak boundary-layer destabilization along
   the warm front, coupled with increasing lift ahead of the occluding
   surface cyclone triple point (and associated eastward advancing band
   of mid-level forcing for ascent), may allow for at least isolated
   boundary-layer based storm development.  This seems most likely
   north/northeast of the Peoria vicinity, and may include one or two
   supercells accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and
   localized strong surface gusts.  Although low-level thermodynamic
   profiles appear rather marginal, given the synoptic environment, and
   large low-level hodographs near/beneath 50+ kt southerly 850 mb
   flow, an isolated tornado may not be out of the question.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/11/2019

 

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35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm just gonna post this here

day1probotlk_2000_torn.gif.b99363b558c367d43eeaff7e2d911682.gif

Just make sure you are on that w-e road where it lies and you are good to go. :lol:

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DOA threat is DOA.

Best chance for any severe was near the warm front and triple point in E. IA and N/C. IL...which didn't pan out.

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