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April 10-12 Winter Storm


MNstorms
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50 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I hope it trends south, right through ORD land. That may give the Cubs a chance to work on their pitching during the game cancellations.

Bullpen has been appalling lol. For real though I hope this goes north. Would be nice to get some storms out of this.

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5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not a breath about this from my local mets so far. They're focused on the 60s forecast for Saturday through Monday.

Because snow (as well as anything winter-related, like garbage cold, sleet, freezing rain) SUCKS. Why people root for winter wx is beyond me. Give me record breaking warmth and sunshine any day of the year, and perhaps some severe wx every now and then too. **** winter. Great lakes climo is such utter trash.

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2 minutes ago, NegativeEPO said:

Because snow (as well as anything winter-related, like garbage cold, sleet, freezing rain) SUCKS. Why people root for winter wx is beyond me. Give me record breaking warmth and sunshine any day of the year, and perhaps some severe wx every now and then too. **** winter. Great lakes climo is such utter trash.

Thanks. You just screwed us. Guess, I'll drag my snowblower out of the shed. Good news, opening day looks decent.

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2 things you can usually count on for spring snowstorms, is that the model snow maps will overdo things and the local mets will under do things. So whoever's in the path of the storm once it's imminent, take the median ground between what the local mets are forecasting and what the snow maps are showing, and that's probably what's going to happen. Last Saturday was a great example of that here. Pouring rain turning to wet snow before ending had local mets acknowledging the rain would likely turn to snow but there would be little if any accumulation before the cold came in. The model snow maps showed around 3" of snow since they were forecasting at least 0.3" of qpf falling as snow. Well, that's exactly what happened, at least 0.3" of liquid fell as snow, but the accumulation translated to 1.5". 

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7 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

I'm not very familiar with the climatology of Chicago this time of year. How unusual are the amounts the Euro is showing?

Put it this way.  The latest 6" calendar day snow on record is April 6.

The first 5-7 days of the month have produced pretty decent snows... not common, but not unheard of.  Once you get beyond the first week of April, snows of several inches are exceedingly rare.

Will roll out more stats at a later time, if warranted.  

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Put it this way.  The latest 6" calendar day snow on record is April 6.

The first 5-7 days of the month have produced pretty decent snows... not common, but not unheard of.  Once you get beyond the first week of April, snows of several inches are exceedingly rare.

Will roll out more stats at a later time, if warranted.  

My better half was born April 14,1961 in a snowstorm...so the story goes....in Downers Grove,Il

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4 minutes ago, Baum said:

My better half was born April 14,1961 in a snowstorm...so the story goes....in Downers Grove,Il

Dailies for Chicago back then were 1.1", 5.4", 0.3".  So that qualifies as a 6" storm even though there wasn't a calendar day 6".

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Admittedly it's early for details, but a look at the GFS forecast soundings would suggest the possibility of thundersnow.  Fairly steep mid level lapse rates work their way into the cold sector.

Will have a lot to consider when determining actual snow amounts.  Temps look to get into the 70s on Monday in a large chunk of the potential snow area.  Ground warmth will be a factor to some degree so realizing the heavier rates will be important to fight against the melting/compaction tendency.  Have to consider the April sun angle as well... not that it won't accumulate during the daytime but may have more efficient accumulation at night.  All in all, certainly looks like it could be a memorable April snowstorm for some areas, but I would definitely advise against riding the clown map output verbatim given the aforementioned factors.

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