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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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0z Euro has a fair amount of rain for along/mostly east of I-95. Not sure if it will work out as advertised but it seems to be focusing some action along the front that moved though but has pretty much stalled. Pops some showers along it today and then again into Friday AM in association with Dorian's outer bands- actually looks again like some interaction with the boundary, with the primary rain shield staying closer to the coast. Indicates a total of half to 3/4" inch of rain over this way. I have my doubts but at least it's something to keep an eye on.

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This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Southport, NC. We have a hurricane warning in effect and the eye is expected to pass closely at some point today. 

Here's my first video. Was awoken to a serious band with multiple couplets in it. That kicked off the NC tornado threat. I've seen numerous warnings over me and the latest band due south looks to have multiple areas of spin. 

Not sure how many things I post today, as I want to focus on collecting data and tracking. I should be far enough inland to be out of the range of surge, I am in a solid building, and of course I'll do everything I can to stay safe. 

Current pressure is 1003.6mb and falling. 

 

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51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Irene was way worse than Isabel in my area. The latter was a big deal if you live near the bay. Irene had some serious wind, heavy rain, lost power, and a big oak tree came down right behind the house. Was a close call.

eta- Dorian is not even in the convo for up this way.

The long-timers down here have told me Irene was way worse than Isabel for southern MD too (I was living in Glen Burnie for both storms so I have no idea).

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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FENWICK
ISLAND DELAWARE...AND ALSO EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY TO DRUM POINT...INCLUDING THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF COBB
ISLAND.
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It's been quite quiet in between bands here, hopefully that diminishes the flash flooding potential in NC. There are some nasty rainfall totals in SC. 

Looking at the radar, the best chance of seeing high winds looks to be if/when the eyewall gets close. 

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's been quite quiet in between bands here, hopefully that diminishes the flash flooding potential in NC. There are some nasty rainfall totals in SC. 

Looking at the radar, the best chance of seeing high winds looks to be if/when the eyewall gets close. 

You aren't too far from Bald Head Island.  That place should have a nice front row seat of this storm.  Of course you need to ride the ferry over there which for all I know is probably not running at this point.   Plus I don't think there are any hotel type accommodations on that island, just home rentals.

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Just now, Sparky said:

You aren't too far from Bald Head Island.  That place should have a nice front row seat of this storm.  Of course you need to ride the ferry over there which for all I know is probably not running at this point.   Plus I don't think there are any hotel type accommodations on that island, just home rentals.

Yeah, I don't even think I'll see the coast on this trip lol. Those areas are blocked off due to the surge warning and evacuation order. I'm a few miles inland...far enough to not worry about surge and close enough to experience high end winds if we get a close enough approach. I'd be happier to see that during the daylight hours, but none of us have a choice. 

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No time to track during the day but just peaked at things and looks like models backed off on any rain chances west of the bay . But most guidance gets gusts to 50+ mph in OC tomorrow.  Va  beach still look prime for heavy qpf and possible hurricane gusts per Euro , 3k, hrrr. And how about all the tornados this am and afternoon in NC . Where's Wxwatcher at? Looks like heavy flash  flooding qpf reaches pretty far inland in NC .

I'm betting that tornado watch gets extended north to Southeast Va. Heavy showers just to the south of Va beach 

Edit.. hurricane gusts currently just south of Kure Beach ,NC

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Just to share the strongest sustained winds that I've experienced from any organized low in Carroll  county. Hurricane Isabelle takes the cake . 40-60 mph with higher gusts and believe it or not the blizzard of 93' with hours and hours of 30- 50 mph sustained winds. 

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29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just to share the strongest sustained winds that I've experienced from any organized low in Carroll  county. Hurricane Isabelle takes the cake . 40-60 mph with higher gusts and believe it or not the blizzard of 93' with hours and hours of 30- 50 mph sustained winds. 

What about early March 2018?  It didn't happen along with active precipitation but it was an impressive long lasting windstorm for Carroll.

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Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  52...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

Corrected direction to Cape Lookout

...EYE OF DORIAN PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT...
...HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 76.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM E OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning from South Santee River, SC to Little River Inlet.

The Storm Surge Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City NC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River SC to Little River Inlet
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Fundy National Park to Shediac.
* Francois to Boat Harbour.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 76.2 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the
coast of North Carolina during the next several hours.  The center
should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England
tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late
Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian should remain a powerful hurricane as it moves near
or along the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours.
Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova
Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).  A NOAA weather station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina,
located inside the western eyewall of Dorian has reported
sustained hurricane-force winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust to
94 mph (152 km/h).  This is equivalent to a 1-minute sustained wind
speed of 81 mph (130 km/h).  A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon
near Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained
wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 956 mb (28.23
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are spreading northward along portions
of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still
affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early
Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday.

Northeastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated
storm totals 15 inches.
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches.
Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.
Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches.
New Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF:  Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible this morning across
eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

The center of the eye of Hurricane Dorian is located just off the
coast of North Carolina not far from Cape Lookout.  Based on data
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and Doppler radar velocities,
the initial intensity is set at 80 kt.  This estimate is a
compromise between the flight-level winds and SFMR values.  The
minimum pressure remains quite low, 956 mb, based on surface
observations and aircraft fixes.  There have been several reports in
eastern North Carolina of sustained tropical-storm-force winds and
hurricane-force gusts, with the strongest winds being reported in
the northern eyewall.

Dorian is moving northeastward at 12 kt.  A faster northeastward
motion is expected during the next few days as a mid- to upper-level
trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system
and accelerates the steering flow.  This track forecast takes the
hurricane along the coast of North Carolina during the next several
hours and near or over Atlantic Canada this weekend.  The models
are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple
of days due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. Dorian is
expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in about
36 hours, and head over much colder waters after that.  These
atmospheric and oceanic conditions should cause the cyclone to
become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical in about 2 days.  As
the system gains latitude, the tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to expand significantly.  The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and in line with the various
consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of
southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay.  Water levels
could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more
widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia
this morning. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these
areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is
expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 34.6N  76.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  06/1800Z 36.0N  74.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  07/0600Z 38.8N  69.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  07/1800Z 42.5N  65.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  08/0600Z 46.7N  61.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  09/0600Z 53.0N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  10/0600Z 58.0N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

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From the AFD discussion:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
359 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Dorian will track from near the North Carolina Outer
Banks this morning to offshore by this evening to near Nova
Scotia by late Saturday. High pressure will build eastward from
the Upper Midwest through the weekend, then shift off the New
England coast early next week. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for the latest forecasts on Dorian.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes while a stationary
boundary stretches between the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and into
central North Carolina. Cloudy skies are observed over our region
with temperatures in the between the mid 60s and low 70s. Some gusts
to 20 mph are being observed near St Mary`s county, with gusts up to
30 mph over the adjacent waters. Over this same area, light rain
is observed on radar.

Hurricane Dorian is currently off of the coast of North Carolina and
nearing Cape Lookout. As of the 2am Intermediate Advisory from the
NHC, Dorian is moving at 15mph with maximum sustained winds of 90mph
and minimum central pressure of 958 mb. Dorian will continue to
track northeast, nearing Cape Hatteras this morning and then into
the Atlantic through the rest of today. By this evening, Dorian`s
center should be located about 200 miles east of the DelMarVA
shoreline as a mid-level trough pushes Dorian away from the Mid-
Atlantic region. By late tonight, Dorian`s center is expected to be
located about 300 miles from the New Jersey shore.
(snip)

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Crazy wind and rain. Wish you guys could experience this. MUCH  worse than what I thought it would be. Getting gusts 50 to 70 mph now. 

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2 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Crazy wind and rain. Wish you guys could experience this. MUCH  worse than what I thought it would be. Getting gusts 50 to 70 mph now. 

I’m sorry, where are you again? VA Beach?

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000
NOUS41 KAKQ 061326
PNSAKQ
MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>100-509>525-070126-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
926 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Lat/Lon
Chesapeake Light Tower       81 MPH    0901 AM 09/06   36.90N/75.71W
Chesapeake Light Tower       78 MPH    0716 AM 09/06   36.90N/75.71W
Elizabeth City Airport       70 MPH    0744 AM 09/06   36.27N/76.18W
Ccem Carova Beach Fire Depar 68 MPH    0750 AM 09/06   36.52N/75.87W
2 NNE Bayside                68 MPH    0746 AM 09/06   36.91N/76.12W
Ccem Carova Beach Fire Depar 67 MPH    0730 AM 09/06   36.52N/75.87W
Cape Henry                   65 MPH    0836 AM 09/06   36.93N/76.01W
Rudee Inlet                  64 MPH    0907 AM 09/06   36.83N/75.97W
Cape Henry, VA               64 MPH    0836 AM 09/06   36.93N/76.01W
Ccem Carova Beach Fire Depar 64 MPH    0530 AM 09/06   36.52N/75.87W
8 NW Cape Henry              62 MPH    0824 AM 09/06   37.03N/76.08W
Cape Henry, VA               61 MPH    0812 AM 09/06   36.93N/76.01W
Rudee Inlet                  61 MPH    0742 AM 09/06   36.83N/75.97W
Middle Ground Lighthouse     60 MPH    0851 AM 09/06   36.95N/76.39W
Edenton                      59 MPH    0820 AM 09/06   36.02N/76.57W
Creeds                       59 MPH    0805 AM 09/06   36.59N/76.02W
Sandbridge                   58 MPH    0909 AM 09/06   36.70N/75.93W
Willoughby Deguassing Statio 56 MPH    0848 AM 09/06   36.98N/76.32W
&&
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On 9/3/2019 at 5:20 PM, Stormpc said:

I'm under a hurricane watch right on Currituck sound. Still not anticipating anything more than 60 mile per hour gusts. That's nothing for this area. But the locals down here close down everything. I was here for Florence. We got one rain band that lasted 20 minutes and that was about it. Things were shut down for three or four days. And there was nothing happening.

 

3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Crazy wind and rain. Wish you guys could experience this. MUCH  worse than what I thought it would be. Getting gusts 50 to 70 mph now. 

:lol:

 

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8 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Anything in the foreseeable future !?

For us? Too soon to tell.  But let’s worry about Alabama if there is another one

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4 hours ago, mappy said:

they just trolling us all now right?

 

My parents had a cruise ship that went into a Hurricane. I was so jealous. Not just looking outside at the Hurricane but  the ship rocking and constantly hearing things smash and break and people face planting into walls.

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Totally jelly of a cruise ship full of people getting concussed while in the buffet line for General Tso chicken

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