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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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49 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Fwiw... Eps bumped west . Mean Lp looks actually a bit west of the OP.  LF in east Carolina.  And also notable is the continued slower timing with many members.  Also in the mix is a cluster of S. Carolina and Ga LF 's. So worth keeping an I on that possibility. Any continued slowing could allow hieghts to rebuild in the west Atlantic and let Dorian gain a bit more latitude before getting caught in the ml flow.  Something else to watch . Heck there's a cluster of lows still at SC 's Latitude on Fri morning lol 

Yeah, I had been noticing a slowing with the guidance as well. Considering we are talking a matter of 10's of miles being the difference between huge impacts vs. moderate/minimal for the Southeastern seaboard even small differences with the heights, trough and speed and intensity of the system itself can have fairly huge impacts on the end results as it shifts the track slightly. 

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From the 5pm advisory from NHC:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the
North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Chincoteague,
Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.

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14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, I had been noticing a slowing with the guidance as well. Considering we are talking a matter of 10's of miles being the difference between huge impacts vs. moderate/minimal for the Southeastern seaboard even small differences with the heights, trough and speed and intensity of the system itself can have fairly huge impacts on the end results as it shifts the track slightly. 

We’ll see if that is a trend or outlier now that Dorian is moving again.

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I'm under a hurricane watch right on Currituck sound. Still not anticipating anything more than 60 mile per hour gusts. That's nothing for this area. But the locals down here close down everything. I was here for Florence. We got one rain band that lasted 20 minutes and that was about it. Things were shut down for three or four days. And there was nothing happening.

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Just now, Stormpc said:

I'm under a hurricane watch right on Currituck sound. Still not anticipating anything more than 60 mile per hour gusts. That's nothing for this area. But the locals down here close down everything. I was here for Florence. We got one rain band that lasted 20 minutes and that was about it. Things were shut down for three or four days. And there was nothing happening.

What’s your biggest storm?

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What’s your biggest storm?

The locals say it was Isabel. At least in the last 25 or 30 years. And of course of the flooding from Matthew in the VA Beach area. The biggest storm I personally went through was Gloria in 1985. Eye crossed over my house on LI. 

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1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

The locals say it was Isabel. At least in the last 25 or 30 years. And of course of the flooding from Matthew in the VA Beach area. The biggest storm I personally went through was Gloria in 1985. Eye crossed over my house on LI. 

I was down for the cleanup in New Bern after Florence. Wasn’t pretty. Wind damage was evident, Mostly to the pines. but the flooding was devastating. Particularly Fairfield harbor which most houses had at least 4-6ft of water inside. 

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Leave Harrisburg tomorrow for Rehoboth Beach, scheduled to come back Friday evening. 

Don't know that area at all - should we plan to come back late Thursday instead? 

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I will be in OC this weekend. Should be interesting waves at least. 

Any of you who have vacationed in Grand Bahama in the past, we have numerous times, I am sad to report that basically 70% of the island is gone. It is under water. It looks like about half of Freeport is still above water. But this is completely horrifying. 

 

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26 minutes ago, canderson said:

Leave Harrisburg tomorrow for Rehoboth Beach, scheduled to come back Friday evening. 

Don't know that area at all - should we plan to come back late Thursday instead? 

Why leave earlier? Stay and have fun.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Why leave earlier? Stay and have fun.

Ha, just don’t want our car to fly off a bridge or anything. I’m not sure how much impact they’ll get that far north. As never been there I just don’t know how it fares in storms. 

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

Ha, just don’t want our car to fly off a bridge or anything. I’m not sure how much impact they’ll get that far north. As never been there I just don’t know how it fares in storms. 

Keep an eye on the forecast. Right now it appears there will be low impact there- some rain and maybe some tropical storm force gusts. NBD. Its not an area that will flood with a storm tracking well to the east.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Keep an eye on the forecast. Right now it appears there will be low impact there- some rain and maybe some tropical storm force gusts. NBD. Its not an area that will flood with a storm tracking well to the east.

Thanks!

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Bands making it pretty far inland atm in East Florida.  22z Hrrr will be playing serious catchup for qpf .  Its a shame we dont have a short range meso good for tc's.

I was looking at qpf for SC in particular and pretty impressive totals by Euro and nams . 12" -18" 

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Wow...hearing the brief recount of Josh Morgerman’s (iCyclone) experience is pretty chilling. Given that countless others have similar stories from those islands.

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3 hours ago, canderson said:

Thanks!

If the storm doesn't come closer as currently  expected you should be fine.  The shoreline isnt that far from the boardwalk already...so if the storm somehow does get closer you may have a hard time finding a place on the beach...

Fyi...

There are great outlets just b4 you get into Rehoboth on rt1..(tax free shopping ) :)

 

Henlopen City Oyster House is a great place to eat IMO.  Or you can stick with  the cheap eats on the boardwalk at DoggieStyle, Thrashers (Fries) or Gus & Gus (Chicken&Fries)

 

Rehoboth Beach Boardwalk Webcam | Visit Delaware Beaches | Rehoboth, Bethany & Fenwick
https://www.visitdebeaches.com/live-webcams/rehoboth-beach-boardwalk-webcam/

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16 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

If the storm doesn't come closer as currently  expected you should be fine.  The shoreline isnt that far from the boardwalk already...so if the storm somehow does get closer you may have a hard time finding a place on the beach...

Fyi...

There are great outlets just b4 you get into Rehoboth on rt1..(tax free shopping :)

 

Rehoboth Beach Boardwalk Webcam | Visit Delaware Beaches | Rehoboth, Bethany & Fenwick
https://www.visitdebeaches.com/live-webcams/rehoboth-beach-boardwalk-webcam/

PA is tax free so I’m good shopping-wish. Thanks though!

 

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3 hours ago, canderson said:

Thanks!

Well, at least you got answers. When I asked about Ocean City a couple days ago, all I got was crickets...

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16 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Well, at least you got answers. When I asked about Ocean City a couple days ago, all I got was crickets...

To be fair no one here knew what Dorian was going to do. 

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10 minutes ago, canderson said:

To be fair no one here knew what Dorian was going to do. 

Actually I wanted to know more about what general conditions are like in a tropical event (flooding, wind and bridge crossings, etc) in OC, not so much what Dorian's effect would be.

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41 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Actually I wanted to know more about what general conditions are like in a tropical event (flooding, wind and bridge crossings, etc) in OC, not so much what Dorian's effect would be.

Ah. I think I tried to answer the latter, but unfortunately I didn’t know the answer to your actual question. Definitely would have answered if I could.

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4 hours ago, Voyager said:

Actually I wanted to know more about what general conditions are like in a tropical event (flooding, wind and bridge crossings, etc) in OC, not so much what Dorian's effect would be.

Never been there for tropical but I can say that the coastal highway was prone to some pretty good flooding during thunderstorms. Been quite awhile since I have been there so maybe they have addressed that problem? The 50 bridge out of OC might pose some problems if you have a high profile vehicle because the wind is pretty much coming off the ocean unabated. Always have the 90 bridge (Assawomen Bay Bridge) a few miles north which doesn't have the elevation of the 50 bridge but is a longer expanse over open water. 

eta: Of course if wind is an issue you could always shoot up coastal highway past Rehobeth/Bethany and get access to the mainland without dealing with much in the way of bridges but then you are potentially dealing with traffic. But at this time of year that shouldn't be an issue.

Just some trivia but if you do cross the 50 bridge you will notice an inlet from the ocean into the bay. Ocean city used to connect to Assateague  but that inlet was carved out during a hurricane in 33 separating the barrier island. https://davidhealeyauthor.com/2017/08/23/ocean-city-hurricane-of-1933-marylands-city-on-the-sand/ 

 

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Just looked at last night's 18z GFS :lol: - But it's not going to satisfy @Eskimo Joe - it doesn't run west of us for one thing.

In all seriousness, GFS does seem to hint that something *could* be in the western Atlantic at some point in the long range. Longggg way out. Some of the recent GFS runs lash the Bahamas too....

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