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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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Also looks like it has ticked a bit SW the last few frames.

Maybe going the way of the Ukie ens western cluster that takes it well inland over Florida before turning north.

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35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Quick look...( on phone) but more members have  solid events for se Va. Nada DC

Yep. So close but yet so far lol. Large portions of the area could use the rain. 

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

On a serious note though, this could produce a lot of rain in a short period for coastal areas.

Meant to ask you earlier today when you brought up the lack of an ERC, is there any possible correlation between the size of the storm and the tendency for seeing an ERC ?

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Also looks like it has ticked a bit SW the last few frames.

Maybe going the way of the Ukie ens western cluster that takes it well inland over Florida before turning north.

I looked like a pretty significant dip to the SW. 

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Also looks like it has ticked a bit SW the last few frames.

Maybe going the way of the Ukie ens western cluster that takes it well inland over Florida before turning north.

I thought the same thing. It looks like it's definitely given up on that NW wobble it had. It's pretty damn ominous. She's a beauty though. 

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1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

I thought the same thing. It looks like it's definitely given up on that NW wobble it had. It's pretty damn ominous. She's a beauty though. 

Yeah but its sometimes hard to tell as they tend to take slight wobbles. See where it is in another couple hours. Sure looks like its turning SW right now though.

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9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Also looks like it has ticked a bit SW the last few frames.

Maybe going the way of the Ukie ens western cluster that takes it well inland over Florida before turning north.

The Euro has it running nearly the length of Grand Bahama Is. before making the turn.

 

The 18z HWRF is scary.  Landfall at Cape Canaveral.

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The Euro has it running nearly the length of Grand Bahama Is. before making the turn.

 

The 18z HWRF is scary.  Landfall at Cape Canaveral.

Yeah it pretty much did the same thing at 12z, but was a little further north. Both it and the HMON have made significant moves west before turning northward, either solidly making landfall or getting the eye on the coast and raking it as it turns north.

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Absolutely horrifying what is about to happen to Grand Bahama. I was hoping for a north tick before it got to the island. But that is not gonna happen. Really awful stuff for Freeport.

We lost one of the cams I posted earlier. But this one is still up. Wind and rain has really started to pick up over the past 30 minutes or so:

https://www.cruisin.me/cruise-port-webcams/caribbean/freeport-bahamas2/

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1 hour ago, jewell2188 said:

Yep. So close but yet so far lol. Large portions of the area could use the rain. 

That's been the story for the whole summer for some of us. lol  This is just salt in the wound. 

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48 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Just lost the last cam from Freeport. Winds had really started to pick up.

U must of not looked at things like twitter or YouTube lately  ha...  Anyways still  IMO this news station near Freeport in the Bahamas is one of the best bets currently for the local info/video of the storm .

Anyone who has Roku or a streaming service can view...

On Roku  Bahamas- ZNS Tv

https://znsbahamas.com/http-original-livestream-com-houseofassembly/

Facebook.

ZNS News.com (The Official Page) - Home
https://m.facebook.com/znsnewsoffic

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Great discussion from Levi. He believes the HWRF might be onto something, FWIW.

 

Wow...so according to this, a weakening storm could actually  e a bad thing for the FL coast? Wow! So many factors at play (also an interesting point he made about how the models may not pic up on certain elements like ocean upwelling all that well. Guess this would be something that has to be watched in real time!)

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...so according to this, a weakening storm could actually  e a bad thing for the FL coast? Wow! So many factors at play (also an interesting point he made about how the models may not pic up on certain elements like ocean upwelling all that well. Guess this would be something that has to be watched in real time!)

The discussion on steering made me geek out.

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18 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I liked how he explained why the hwrf having a weaker and shorter storm structure could indicate a higher chance of not being influenced so much by upper level winds from the approaching trough.

Yes that was the most fascinating--he unveiled a potentially influencing element that I hadn't heard discussed elsewhere!

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St. Mary's county to the Eastern Shore and Delmarva crushed at 108 on 00z GFS... Delmarva at 114 still heavy rain and wind

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43 minutes ago, yoda said:

St. Mary's county to the Eastern Shore and Delmarva crushed at 108 on 00z GFS

Yep.. and I think this beast will have surprises in store like all huge storms do . I personally think it runs the west side of guidance .

Gfs actually is significantly west especially as it gains latitude towards S .New England . And strengthening as it does so .Huge difference verbatim up there with wind and rain totals . 

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Looks like 4 or 5 Gefs members get heavy rain within 50 miles of i95 ..specifically DC to Balt corridor 

Eastern shore of Md per 0z  Gefs gets near sustained tropical force winds 

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5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Meant to ask you earlier today when you brought up the lack of an ERC, is there any possible correlation between the size of the storm and the tendency for seeing an ERC ?

I’m not sure. I don’t think it really has much to do with size but more the intensity and structure (I.e having rain bands that can strengthen and become concentric).

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like 4 or 5 Gefs members get heavy rain within 50 miles of i95 ..specifically DC to Balt corridor 

Eastern shore of Md per 0z  Gefs gets near sustained tropical force winds 

Interesting suite of runs. They’re all more or less saying the same thing.

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26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like 4 or 5 Gefs members get heavy rain within 50 miles of i95 ..specifically DC to Balt corridor 

Eastern shore of Md per 0z  Gefs gets near sustained tropical force winds 

It looks like it could get interesting for me in OCMD late week if there are no evacuations or the company decides to ride it out instead of leaving early.

I've never been to Ocean City. If we stay until scheduled departure time, I'd be trying to get a 45' motorcoach out of there possibly during the storm's peak intensity. What are the conditions I might encounter?

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