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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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@WxWatcher007. I read that paper you posted a while back on rains out ahead of land falling tropical systems. Can’t remember the actual term? Seems like the gfs and euro want to form a band of lighter rains across MD as the storm approaches the outer banks and passes ots ...any chance this increases in coverage/intensity? I remember reading how difficult these rains can be to predict. Looks like the euro drops around an inch in the 95 corridor.

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I haven't been paying much attention today  and I know this thread is more locally focused, but the 12z HWRF makes landfall on the central Florida coast then goes well inland before re-emerging along the SC coast. HMON gets the western eyewall onto the Florida coast for a decent scrape. Both are pretty big shifts west from previous runs. Given the 12z Euro west shift, might have to pay a bit more attention up this way. Still seems likely it will pass pretty far to the east at our latitude, but the immediate coasts of VA/MD/DE should be watching closely..

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21 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@WxWatcher007. I read that paper you posted a while back on rains out ahead of land falling tropical systems. Can’t remember the actual term? Seems like the gfs and euro want to form a band of lighter rains across MD as the storm approaches the outer banks and passes ots ...any chance this increases in coverage/intensity? I remember reading how difficult these rains can be to predict. Looks like the euro drops around an inch in the 95 corridor.

PRE perhaps?

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45 minutes ago, yoda said:

PRE perhaps?

Yes - Predecessor Rain Event. Years ago we got 4" or so up here the night before Gloria passed by. It turned out to be more interesting than the hurricane itself, as it sped up off the coast at about 40 mph.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I haven't been paying much attention today  and I know this thread is more locally focused, but the 12z HWRF makes landfall on the central Florida coast then goes well inland before re-emerging along the SC coast. HMON gets the western eyewall onto the Florida coast for a decent scrape. Both are pretty big shifts west from previous runs. Given the 12z Euro west shift, might have to pay a bit more attention up this way. Still seems likely it will pass pretty far to the east at our latitude, but the immediate coasts of VA/MD/DE should be watching closely..

The globals have been out to lunch when it comes to dorian's intensity vs the Hmon and hwrf which have been much closer to reality. And considering that intensity will play a part in steering this system I would take their southern solutions with seriousness.

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14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

hwrf which have been much closer to reality.

Maue commented and others that it has done very well, but even the hwrf has been off in regards to deepening.  All options still open really IMHO. 

If you believe the 500 year ever so closer to the Eastern Seaboard theory eventually we wil get major canes to hit and effect large portions of the East Coast. Was a great program on NOVA about this.    

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23 minutes ago, frd said:

Maue commented and others that it has done very well, but even the hwrf has been off in regards to deepening.  All options still open really IMHO. 

If you believe the 500 year ever so closer to the Eastern Seaboard theory eventually we wil get major canes to hit and effect large portions of the East Coast. Was a great program on NOVA about this.    

Yeah, the hurricane models though closer still didn't quite pick up on the explosiveness we have seen. But the one key takeaway I do get from this is that the runs that do have a stronger system tend to have farther south and west solutions. This sort of surprises me because I would expect a stronger system would tend to have a more poleward movement. Being out of town with only my phone it is hard to delve deep into why we are seeing this which seems counterintuitive. Best guess would be that height builds and their placement directly as a result of the intensity of the storm would be a good place to start looking. 

Eta: 500 yr theory? Never heard of it.

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2 hours ago, poolz1 said:

@WxWatcher007. I read that paper you posted a while back on rains out ahead of land falling tropical systems. Can’t remember the actual term? Seems like the gfs and euro want to form a band of lighter rains across MD as the storm approaches the outer banks and passes ots ...any chance this increases in coverage/intensity? I remember reading how difficult these rains can be to predict. Looks like the euro drops around an inch in the 95 corridor.

The others said it—Predecessor Rain Event.

These are particularly noticeable when a system is recurving. The rain is usually heavier though so something to watch.

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Just now, yoda said:

18z GFS has Dorian making landfall near ILM at 96 again

Yeah, maybe a tic west over 12z. I could be wrong since I’m in and out this afternoon but I thought the EPS was a little closer to the GFS than the op. I think I’ve seen a little more consistency between the two in this time frame.

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2 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Yes - Predecessor Rain Event. Years ago we got 4" or so up here the night before Gloria passed by. It turned out to be more interesting than the hurricane itself, as it sped up off the coast at about 40 mph.

We had one with Floyd. I remember watching the water flood water rise before the wind hit. We got crushed in central AA country from that. Trees were down everywhere. Dorian looks incredible on satellite right now. Cloud tops continue to cool.

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6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

We had one with Floyd. I remember watching the water flood water rise before the wind hit. We got crushed in central AA country from that. Trees were down everywhere. Dorian looks incredible on satellite right now. Cloud tops continue to cool.

Floyd is one of my first tropical experiences. I was glued to TWC and remember power getting knocked out at my school lol. 

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Floyd is one of my first tropical experiences. I was glued to TWC and remember power getting knocked out at my school lol. 

We got a day off of school for Floyd here... was mainly just wind and little rain

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2 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Yes - Predecessor Rain Event. Years ago we got 4" or so up here the night before Gloria passed by. It turned out to be more interesting than the hurricane itself, as it sped up off the coast at about 40 mph.

Yep..remember the huge  flash flood at herring run park in northeast Baltimore.  Sun came out quick .

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Floyd is one of my first tropical experiences. I was glued to TWC and remember power getting knocked out at my school lol. 

I remember being at work and it just pouring all day, but not completely realizing the rates. Technically I should not have been able to get home that evening, as every possible route was flooded/blocked off. The last possible route, I took my chances, despite seeing a subcompact car bobbing in a flooded "ditch" as water gushed across the road from an elevated farm field. I had a jeep. I went for it. I didn't turn around, but I didn't drown either. That was some high water, but I made it, lol.

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

We got a day off of school for Floyd here... was mainly just wind and little rain

It was mainly wind and a little rain here too. I’ll never forget the decaying “eye” passing over my house. I could see the moon and a little ring of clouds around it (at least that’s how I remember it :weenie:).

I was already all in on tropical before Floyd, but I was definitely hooked after that.

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Fwiw..Gefs has 2 members LF in FL now . Decent west shift overall.  It's a little close in I know for ensembles inside 48 but still maybe an indicator of a bump west . Showme mentioned the 2 hurricane models that LF .. already earlier so lots of interesting tracking left 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Fwiw..Gefs has a few members LF in FL now . Decent west shift overall.  It's a little close in I know for ensembles inside 48 but still maybe an indicator of a bump west . Showme mentioned the 2 hurricane models already earlier so lots of interesting tracking left 

Anything up here or the usual miss? ;)

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Fwiw..Gefs has 2 members LF in FL now . Decent west shift overall.  It's a little close in I know for ensembles inside 48 but still maybe an indicator of a bump west . Showme mentioned the 2 hurricane models that LF .. already earlier so lots of interesting tracking left 

Yeah, game of inches here. Tough being a forecaster for this one.

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Anything up here or the usual miss? ;)

You know the answer :lol:

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47 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

We had one with Floyd. I remember watching the water flood water rise before the wind hit. We got crushed in central AA country from that. Trees were down everywhere. Dorian looks incredible on satellite right now. Cloud tops continue to cool.

Is it just me or does the eye seem abnormally large compared to the storm?

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