• Member Statistics

    15,777
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I don’t claim to know anything about hurricanes but based on Twitter commentary this past hour from the best meteorologists on the platform you’d think it would at least be a 160mph cane.

 

I have no idea what exactly was the calculus. But there were several passes with 140+ kt FL and Surface and not just with SFMR but the drop too. They obviously disregarded that data.   I’m not going to engage in motive speculation though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have no idea what exactly was the calculus. But there were several passes with 140+ kt FL and Surface and not just with SFMR but the drop too. They obviously disregarded that data.   I’m not going to engage in motive speculation though. 

Pretty wild, especially there's been abundant data from multiple sources and multiple recon planes this evening. Doesn't mean much in terms of the sensible wx anyone unfortunate to be in the path will see, but just plain odd IMO. If it avoids an ERC, it's just a matter of time before it's classified as a 5. 

Good to see you post. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Pretty wild, especially there's been abundant data from multiple sources and multiple recon planes this evening. Doesn't mean much in terms of the sensible wx anyone unfortunate to be in the path will see, but just plain odd IMO. If it avoids an ERC, it's just a matter of time before it's classified as a 5. 

Good to see you post. 

It’s odd. That’s all I can say.  Always look forward to your tropical posts. I’m always here lurking.  I just don’t comment unless I have something to further the discussion and with tropical usually I don’t. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

 


Interesting tidbit that might explain the decision made by the NHC.

 

Saw that too. I mean they’re the best on the planet, so I’ll scratch my head and move on, but even without the dropsondes you have multiple SFMRs in I think each quadrant over the course of the last 12 hours. Oh well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

00z GFS has a landfall in NC, and the result is a closer track to SE VA. I'm doubtful of such a large and expansive storm and wind field, but it's been consistent on all the guidance. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_20.png

And if that were to verify, will make for an interesting night for me in OCMD...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Voyager said:

And if that were to verify, will make for an interesting night for me in OCMD...

Certainly would. Not sure it'll work out like that. We need to resolve this quasi-stall off the FL coast first before locking in solutions further north (not saying that you are). Going to take more time unfortunately. 

That trough was weaker this run, and it allowed less of a kick IMO. That, and the ridging was a bit stronger as it headed northward. Possible, but really splitting hairs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Certainly would. Not sure it'll work out like that. We need to resolve this quasi-stall off the FL coast first before locking in solutions further north (not saying that you are). Going to take more time unfortunately. 

That trough was weaker this run, and it allowed less of a kick IMO. That, and the ridging was a bit stronger as it headed northward. Possible, but really splitting hairs. 

Of course not, but I drive a motor coach now (will be down there Tue-Fri) so I'll be responsible for about 40 passengers and large bus, so I'm keeping an eye on things.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT THE ABACO
ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian
Inlet is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Golden Beach to
Deerfield Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.  Additional watches or warnings
may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 76.0 West.  Dorian is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion
should occur for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn
toward the northwest.  On this track, the core of Dorian should be
near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today and
tonight, and should move closer to the Florida east coast late
Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely,
but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas later today, with tropical
storm winds beginning within the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WOW !  Looks like a West Pac typhoon .  

 

Wonder if it can get to 170 mph sustained, as it has entered a higher ocean heat content area. 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely no sign of an EWRC occurring any time soon...the core is well intact. An awesome storm to watch but man I feel for those in the N Bahamas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

What a scary looking scenario for the Bahamas.  Hopefully the west “nudges” on the models recently stop and it doesn’t make landfall along the coast of the US.

I guess I'm sick in the head because I'd like to see it come up the cheasapeak after hitting Florida as a cat5. I'm tired of pretending to be normal. F**k it. I'm coming out of the closet on Facebook right now.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

00z GFS has a landfall in NC, and the result is a closer track to SE VA. I'm doubtful of such a large and expansive storm and wind field, but it's been consistent on all the guidance. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_20.png

Out of town so it is hard to get an accurate read from just looking on the phone but the expansion of the storm  seems plausible to me as Dorian unwinds. Lot of energy packed in this storm and the track (riding just off the coast) means the intensity will be somewhat maintained and is conducive for a slow bleed of energy  outward in an ever expanding field due to friction with the land. Would be different story if this storm made direct landfall and all support was abruptly cut off. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Out of town so it is hard to get an accurate read from just looking on the phone but the expansion of the storm  seems plausible to me as Dorian unwinds. Lot of energy packed in this storm and the track (riding just off the coast) means the intensity will be somewhat maintained and is conducive for a slow bleed of energy  outward in an ever expanding field due to friction with the land. Would be different story if this storm made direct landfall and all support was abruptly cut off. 

What an incredible storm. I'm a believer in expansion due to the consistency on all guidance. We've gone a long time without an ERC and at this point IDK if we want one. It'd take it down maybe a category, but would expand the wind field which would be bad for coastal areas. 

Bahamas are in trouble either way.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What an incredible storm. I'm a believer in expansion due to the consistency on all guidance. We've gone a long time without an ERC and at this point IDK if we want one. It'd take it down maybe a category, but would expand the wind field which would be bad for coastal areas. 

Bahamas are in trouble either way.

I have to imagine this storm will be studied for a long time after it's over...the lack of ERC is pretty unusual for storms like this. I have to imagine we'll get one before it reaches/grazes Florida.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

175/922

still strengthening 

WOW !!

Remarkable to see it continuing to strengthen at this latitude.  I can’t remember which hurricane model it was but one of them had Dorian getting to Cat 5 strength when no other model had that — good job forecasting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/26/2019 at 2:40 PM, showmethesnow said:

Models are getting a little more interesting with Dorian post Islands tour.

Euro- Threads it between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Strikes the central/eastern shore of Florida at  1005 mb. But at 1005 mb I guess that would be more like a caress. :) 

GFS- Flush hit on Dominican Republic tears the storm apart.

GFS-Par- Runs it over Puerto Rico. 983 mb Cane before striking southeastern Florida.

CMC- Flush hit on Dominican Republic. Storm regroups. 996 mb grazes the tip of southern Florida before riding into the gulf and then striking the Louisiana/Miss border at 987 mb.

ICON- Runs it over Puerto Rico. Takes a Left hand turn running through the Bahamas east to west with a storm in the low 980's. Skims the northern shore of Cuba with a 983 mb. Eventually ends up in the central Gulf with 1002 mbs at the end of its run.

NavGem- Runs it over Puerto Rico. 989 mb Cane just about to land fall in east/central Florida.

HWRF- Flush hit on Dominican Republic. Does a number on the system. Eventually starts to regroup off the southeastern Florida coast at 1001 mb.

HWRF-P- Kills the storm before it even reaches Dom Rep/Puerto Rico.

HMON- Kills the storm before it even reaches Dom Rep/Puerto Rico.

Given the intensity and track that Dorian has attained, I would say the modeling was pretty bad from 6 days ago for this historic storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Obviously, there is model consensus this thing turns NW>N>NE ..... with time.

But I wonder about that old axiom that says hurricanes like this create their own environment and way-ahead, thereby introducing the risk this beast doesn't follow model-ology  But I do realize all the signs point to a turn up/off the East Coast before any FL/GA landfall.

 

The low to the east of Dorian is getting better organized as well altho probably no effect on Dorian.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.