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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean...aren't coastal running hurricanes less common anyway? Feels like we see more "just off the east coast" scenarios than a cane slamming into the east? 

50 miles could be the difference between minor to minimal damage and millions of dollars in damage.  Just imagine if it followed the Western edge of the second image below by 50 to 100 miles further West.   

 

  

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1 hour ago, frd said:

50 miles could be the difference between minor to minimal damage and millions of dollars in damage.  Just imagine if it followed the Western edge of the second image below by 50 to 100 miles further West.   

 

  

I think we have a trend showing up in the two sets of runs.

 

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Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.  Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 72.6 West.  Dorian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and
continue into early next week.  On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is possible today.
Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

 

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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian continues to look impressive in satellite imagery this
morning, with a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding
a 10-15 n mi wide eye.  There have been no new aircraft data from
the storm since the last advisory.  However, the satellite
appearance has changed little since the aircraft were last in the
storm, and the various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates have changed little over the past several hours.  Based on
this, the initial intensity remains 120 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/10.  A low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west-
northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward
speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the
Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the
track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the
ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models.  The track
forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h.  The global
models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON
models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none
of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida.  However, the
UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida
peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members.  The new
track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of
the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the
various consensus models.  Additional adjustments to the forecast
track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue.
It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude
Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of
the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty.  Also,
significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.

Dorian should remain in a generally favorable environment for the
next 3-4 days, and the intensity guidance indicates it will remain
a powerful hurricane during this time.  The new intensity forecast
calls for a little more strengthening today, then it shows a slow
weakening that follows the trend of the intensity guidance.  During
this time, the biggest intensity changes may come from hard-to-
forecast eyewall replacement cycles.  Late in the forecast period,
increased vertical shear and proximity to land is expected to
cause some weakening.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and
devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand
Bahama Island.  A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas,
and residents should listen to advice given by local emergency
officials and have their hurricane preparations completed today.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast
by the early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is
forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too
soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will
occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know
if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice
given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surge is
increasing along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during
the middle of next week.  Residents in those areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 25.8N  72.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  31/1800Z 26.1N  74.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  01/0600Z 26.5N  75.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  01/1800Z 26.7N  77.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
48H  02/0600Z 26.9N  78.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
72H  03/0600Z 27.5N  79.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
96H  04/0600Z 29.5N  80.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 32.0N  80.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

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00z guidance, operational in particular, definitely trended toward more coastal impact in the region, but it’s unclear whether these are just transient trends on the way to a final forecast that’s safely out to sea.

The tracking continues...

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This is from a couple days ago but still beautiful to look at, and very popular viewing by those who love the weather. I have never seen an overlay like this ever with such a vivid lightening display over time in and around the center and in the outer feeder bands as well      

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

00z guidance, operational in particular, definitely trended toward more coastal impact in the region, but it’s unclear whether these are just transient trends on the way to a final forecast that’s safely out to sea.

The tracking continues...

Yep...Lots of tracking left . Most guidance has Dorian still along  the FL coast at the 100 hour mark . And about  6 days out from our regions latitude . One thing is certain...more changes are coming . 

Look how the Euro has Dorian really slow down at the 54 hr. - 84 hour mark. Not exactly a slam dunk progressive system on our hands 

 

 

Screenshot_20190831-091016_Samsung capture_crop_360x676.jpg

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Significant changes from 6z GFS on 8/30/19 to 6z GFS today at 6z on next Thursday. Yesterday Dorian was depicted to be, looks like just north of Tampa and today it's shown just off the SC/NC coast at that time. Cool front is swinging thru and a strengthening HP in Wisc. is affecting the track, I presume. I'm sure their are a myriad of other factors affecting Dorian also. Very complicated and above my pay grade. Seems like there is a different look with every model run along the Canadian border that has some possible impact on Dorian. Fun to track.

Also notice some snow in NE Canada :)

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So for those of you much more intelligent than me, what is causing the turn to the north on the models? Is it like a high pressure? 

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Just now, Steve25 said:

So for those of you much more intelligent than me, what is causing the turn to the north on the models? Is it like a high pressure? 

Well, just on the modeling (and I say that because things could change if the storm moves faster), they show Dorian moving slow enough to allow the ridge in the Atlantic (someone correct if I'm not using the right term) to decay enough to make an opening to gain more latitude (as opposed to a faster solution that would cause the storm to bump into a ridge not yet decayed...and stay west longer before making the turn)

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Florida May avoid disaster but coastal areas that were hit hard by Florence last year may be in trouble again. I worked in New Bern NC for the storm clean up and I can tell you they are nowhere near prepared for another. 

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159 MPH surface winds in Northern Eyewall on that last pass. Almost a cat 5. Unreal monster. And this is about the most beautiful storm loop I have seen of a cane. Look at the outflow and the cirrus bands. Amazing storm:

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=160&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p[0]=geocolor&x=1092&y=1109.5

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Link to some web cams on Abaco.  Having been to Abaco a couple of times, don't expect them to last long.  Power goes out in a light breeze.  Beautiful island and people, but their infrastructure is horrible.  There are tiny out islands/barrier islands just to the east of Abaco, green turtle cay and elbow and others.  These islands have even worse infrastructure.  Will be interesting to see what's left of them after Dorian.

https://www.abacoescape.com/PopupWebcam.html

This one seems to be the most stable one, from elbow cay.

http://www.calypsobahamas.com/beach-cam.aspx

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Link to some web cams on Abaco.  Having been to Abaco a couple of times, don't expect them to last long.  Power goes out in a light breeze.  Beautiful island and people, but their infrastructure is horrible.  There are tiny out islands/barrier islands just to the east of Abaco, green turtle cay and elbow and others.  These islands have even worse infrastructure.  Will be interesting to see what's left of them after Dorian.

https://www.abacoescape.com/PopupWebcam.html

This one seems to be the most stable one, from elbow cay.

http://www.calypsobahamas.com/beach-cam.aspx

 

 

 

Agreed. Really feel bad for Grand Bahama especially. They never fully recovered from the Canes in the 80's and 90's. We used to vacation there all of the time because it was affordable and beautiful. The people are just awesome there as well. And of course one of my favorite beaches in the world is on GB as well. Gold Rock beach. Unfortunately it looks as though that beach will be heavily impacted.

 

gold rock.jpg

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As far as long the longer range on the models... does the ridge continue to weaken and send OTS, or does it drive it northward with a Carolina landfill and then impacts up into much of Virginia (not just Hampton Roads)? 

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Euro between 96 and 120 has some intensification as Dorian heads toward the NC coast. Looking like it’s headed northeastward in the last few six hourly frames.

Money panels for the region coming soon.

2 hours ago, Chase said:

As far as long the longer range on the models... does the ridge continue to weaken and send OTS, or does it drive it northward with a Carolina landfill and then impacts up into much of Virginia (not just Hampton Roads)? 

At this point, I’d say only far SE Virginia and coastal MD look most likely to get any meaningful but I’d keep casual watch in central and southern VA.

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro between 96 and 120 has some intensification as Dorian heads toward the NC coast. Looking like it’s headed northeastward in the last few six hourly frames.

Money panels for the region coming soon.

At this point, I’d say only far SE Virginia and coastal MD look most likely to get any meaningful but I’d keep casual watch in central and southern VA.

From what I can tell on TT, its further east as it passes the outer banks, then its way NE from there on the next panel. Based on that track, probably would be minimal impacts in SE VA, and next to nothing further N/NW.

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still a solid event for SE VA. 55kt gusts verbatim. 

Yeah verbatim 50+ knot gusts right near VA beach this run. Given where things seem to be heading over recent runs...well, I am not planning on heading to Rehoboth or OC, or even VA beach lol.

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah verbatim 50+ knot gusts right near VA beach this run. Given where things seem to be heading over recent runs...well, I am not planning on heading to Rehoboth or OC, or even VA beach lol.

Yeah I’m just speaking verbatim. We need a landfall for good stuff lol.

thinkiing about Wilmington though 

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21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah verbatim 50+ knot gusts right near VA beach this run. Given where things seem to be heading over recent runs...well, I am not planning on heading to Rehoboth or OC, or even VA beach lol.

We leave for Rehoboth Wednesday. Never been friends invited us to stay at the house they rent the week before and after Labor Day.

I’m a PA guy but I’ll post videos from the beach Cantore-style if it comes to that.

 

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