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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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2 minutes ago, UIWWildthing said:

Good God, the Euro would be catastrophic for Florida. Hits around Palm Beach as a Cat 3, goes across the state, then swings north in the GOM to hit the panhandle. 

For sure....and it actually misses 3 troughs and from hour 192 to 240 not much poleward movement 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

For sure....and it actually misses 3 troughs and from hour 192 to 240 not much poleward movement 

I don’t think it’ll play out like that, but all options are still on the table right now. 

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think it’ll play out like that, but all options are still on the table right now. 

I do know the Gfs this summer seems to been modeling deeper troughs into the US all summer when in reality many  have ended up much shallower . Not sure about the Euro though . Hopefully we can time an entrainment into a trough for remnants :D

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I do know the Gfs this summer seems to been modeling deeper troughs into the US all summer when in reality many  have ended up much shallower . Not sure about the Euro though . Hopefully we can time an entrainment into a trough for remnants :D

GEFS didn’t follow the op when it was curving it up the coast, so I figured it was wrong there. There’s still likely to be some sort of poleward push eventually. Just need to know where. 

I currently favor central Florida for first landfall.

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@WxWatcher007 Just kind of glancing over things but looking at EPS individual members you have posted it looks as if the actual track past Puerto Rico may have been outside of even the eastern most outlier. Do you have better graphics that you may be able to tell for certain? If so that means we continue to see the storm running east of most guidance (24 hrs now? maybe more?). May have implications down the road. Then again maybe not. :) 

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

Eskimo Joe should like some of those 

Not enough members go this far north and those that do race a rotting corpse through to our south.

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Look at this dropsonde...

 

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 0:12Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) 
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 29th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 19.2N 65.5W
Location: 66 statute miles (106 km) to the NE (34°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
Marsden Square: 043 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -20m (-66 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
998mb (29.47 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 24.1°C (75°F) 120° (from the ESE) 79 knots (91 mph)
925mb 663m (2,175 ft) 20.6°C (69.1°F) 20.6°C (69°F) 145° (from the SE) 77 knots (89 mph)
850mb 1,393m (4,570 ft) 16.8°C (62.2°F) 16.8°C (62°F) 150° (from the SSE) 77 knots (89 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:01Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 45° (NE) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 19.19N 65.51W
- Time: 0:01:54Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 19.27N 65.55W
- Time: 0:06:20Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 135° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 81 knots (93 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 73 knots (84 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 746mb to 997mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 85 knots (98 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30402
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
998mb (Surface) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 24.1°C (75°F)
850mb 16.8°C (62.2°F) 16.8°C (62°F)
746mb 11.8°C (53.2°F) 11.8°C (53°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
998mb (Surface) 120° (from the ESE) 79 knots (91 mph)
995mb 120° (from the ESE) 85 knots (98 mph)
990mb 125° (from the SE) 82 knots (94 mph)
983mb 130° (from the SE) 88 knots (101 mph)
955mb 140° (from the SE) 75 knots (86 mph)
946mb 145° (from the SE) 80 knots (92 mph)
899mb 145° (from the SE) 74 knots (85 mph)
874mb 150° (from the SSE) 78 knots (90 mph)
868mb 150° (from the SSE) 75 knots (86 mph)
850mb 150° (from the SSE) 77 knots (89 mph)
746mb 185° (from the S) 70 knots (81 mph)
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Ventrice mentioned a couple days ago the bullish SHIPS model and it appears we are headed in that direction,  now you can add the HWRF and its ominous depiction of a cat 5 headed due West into central Florida. Not looking good at all for Florida at this time.  

 

 

 

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12z Ukmet ensembles -Top

12z Eps - Bottom > Checkout the 4 members that bypass FL and steam right into the gulf .. unlikely but still Can't totally rule it out 

 

Screenshot_20190828-205939_Chrome_crop_288x325.jpg

Screenshot_20190828-210127_Samsung capture_crop_294x332.jpg

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

12z Ukmet ensembles -Top

12z Eps - Bottom > Checkout the 4 members that bypass FL and steam right into the gulf .. unlikely but still Can't totally rule it out 

 

Screenshot_20190828-205939_Chrome_crop_288x325.jpg

Screenshot_20190828-210127_Samsung capture_crop_294x332.jpg

Now that Dorian has cleared the Greater Antilies, the next major moment is when the turn toward the west happens. Like the EPS, those Ukie members look split. With a stronger system, I think we see something further south, but I don't think we escape an EC strike here. 

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Things are ramping up rather quickly. Another pass reveals a significant pressure drop. 

 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 1:22Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 14 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 1Z on the 29th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 19.3N 65.7W
Location: 66 statute miles (107 km) to the NNE (21°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
Marsden Square: 043 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -106m (-348 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
988mb (29.18 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 23.8°C (75°F) 65° (from the ENE) 26 knots (30 mph)
925mb 582m (1,909 ft) 23.0°C (73.4°F) 20.0°C (68°F) 100° (from the E) 15 knots (17 mph)
850mb 1,319m (4,327 ft) 20.4°C (68.7°F) 16.5°C (62°F) 125° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
700mb 2,986m (9,797 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 165° (from the SSE) 17 knots (20 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:48Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 19.31N 65.72W
- Time: 0:48:36Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 19.32N 65.73W
- Time: 0:53:13Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 95° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 13 knots (15 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 15 knots (17 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 698mb to 988mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 90° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30400
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
988mb (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 23.8°C (75°F)
947mb 23.8°C (74.8°F) 21.4°C (71°F)
850mb 20.4°C (68.7°F) 16.5°C (62°F)
763mb 18.6°C (65.5°F) About 10°C (50°F)
712mb 16.0°C (60.8°F) About 7°C (45°F)
698mb Unavailable
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
988mb (Surface) 65° (from the ENE) 26 knots (30 mph)
985mb 80° (from the E) 15 knots (17 mph)
981mb 95° (from the E) 12 knots (14 mph)
908mb 95° (from the E) 15 knots (17 mph)
850mb 125° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
819mb 135° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
801mb 160° (from the SSE) 15 knots (17 mph)
773mb 145° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
698mb 165° (from the SSE) 18 knots (21 mph)
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22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Now that Dorian has cleared the Greater Antilies, the next major moment is when the turn toward the west happens. Like the EPS, those Ukie members look split. With a stronger system, I think we see something further south, but I don't think we escape an EC strike here. 

We are already north of all guidance in real time so there's that. Eps went stronger with Atlantic ridging at 12z . Agree ..its going to be hard to miss all that ec real estate ...particularly FL.  For giggles..if u want remnants in the mid Atlantic hug the Navgem.  144 hr looks poised for a hit here 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

We are already north of all guidance in real time so there's that. Eps went stronger with Atlantic ridging at 12z . Agree ..its going to be hard to miss all that ec real estate ...particularly FL.  For giggles..if u want remnants in the mid Atlantic hug the Navgem.  144 hr looks poised for a hit here 

 Winter rules apply...pick the model with the best solution. Navgem for the win

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

 Winter rules apply...pick the model with the best solution. Navgem for the win

No flush hit. Next :lol:

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5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

@WxWatcher007 Just kind of glancing over things but looking at EPS individual members you have posted it looks as if the actual track past Puerto Rico may have been outside of even the eastern most outlier. Do you have better graphics that you may be able to tell for certain? If so that means we continue to see the storm running east of most guidance (24 hrs now? maybe more?). May have implications down the road. Then again maybe not. :) 

I don’t. Maybe tomorrow :P

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Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

...DORIAN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 66.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 66.6 West.  Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Friday.  A west-northwestward
motion is forecast to begin Friday night and continue into the
weekend.  On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well
east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday,
and approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on earlier Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into early next week:

The central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
The northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast
United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:   Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today.  Swells are likely to
begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
 

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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

Soon after the previous advisory was issued, Dorian appeared to
have a bit of a hiccup in its structure.  A dry slot was noted
penetrating into the southeastern portion of the circulation, with
the eye becoming cloud- and rain-filled.  In fact, dropsonde data
from the Air Force Reserve mission indicated that the central
pressure had come back up a bit to around 991 mb.  That being said,
the plane still measured maximum SFMR winds between 70-75 kt, so the
initial intensity is being held steady at 75 kt for this advisory.

Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt.
Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48
hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and
then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to
the north and a mid- to upper-level low retrograding westward
across the Straits of Florida.  The models, and their ensembles,
continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from
their respective solutions compared to yesterday.  The GFS
is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a
weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia
border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges
and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida.  Given the
spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous
forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and
Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a
position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble
means.  The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a
little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches
Florida.

Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly
shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this
shear diminishing within 12-24 hours.  With lower shear and very
warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin
strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur.
The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the
previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State
Superensemble aids during the first day or two.  After 48 hours, the
official forecast is near or just above the intensity consensus, but
it's still lower than the solutions shown by the HCCA, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HWRF.  Dorian is likely to reach major
hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to
maintain that status until it reaches land.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur.  Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.

2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 20.5N  66.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  29/1800Z 21.9N  67.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  30/0600Z 23.7N  69.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  30/1800Z 25.1N  70.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  31/0600Z 26.0N  72.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  01/0600Z 27.0N  76.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  02/0600Z 27.5N  79.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 28.0N  81.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND

 

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Caught a quick glance of the eye in satellite footage before it was once again obscured by clouds. 

Latest GFS has a 968 strike into northcentral Florida. The GFS-P has a 947 into central Florida. Icon has a 962 east off the southern tip of Florida at the end of its run.

 

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16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Caught a quick glance of the eye in satellite footage before it was once again obscured by clouds. 

Latest GFS has a 968 strike into northcentral Florida. The GFS-P has a 947 into central Florida. Icon has a 962 east off the southern tip of Florida at the end of its run.

 

For this region it’s an eternity away but the guidance did shift toward more impact in the area, especially the operational Euro. These ridges can be really effective bringing tropical/remnants northeast.

Something to watch. 

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25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For this region it’s an eternity away but the guidance did shift toward more impact in the area, especially the operational Euro. These ridges can be really effective bringing tropical/remnants northeast.

Something to watch. 

Was just kind of looking over things now. Several things in play as far as I am concerned as far as track into any potential US landfall. Strength and speed of system, whether we see a continuation of the system running on the right side of guidance and the timing and depth of the trough driving out of the midwest as this storm approaches. Really doesn't take much of a difference on any of these features to have a somewhat significant impact on landfall location. So I guess I am saying all options are still open in my mind. Anywhere from a storm running south of/through Florida into the Gulf to a strike somewhere up into S Carolina. Wouldn't even rule out a swing and a miss as it recurves OTS if it continues on the eastern envelope of guidance. Was contemplating doing a writeup on the above features at some point today but really am not sure I will have the time.

I am sticking to my thoughts from the last few days though. A Cat 2/3 landfalling somewhere between Florida (more specifically central Florida) up to Georgia. 

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Seeing a healthy explosion of convection to the west of the circulation as the storm is now encountering a more favorable setup. Should see some good intensification now/shortly as the dry air that was ingested gets scoured out. Wouldn't be surprised if an eye shows up in the next few hours. 

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