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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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4 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Please,  No. 

Any graphics?

 

 

Can’t pull gifs right now but essentially the retired GFS scrapes Dorian up the coast and over coastal NC/VA next week. I would not worry about it at all right now (hence the emoji) as everything is still in flux. Canadian shifted south and it looks like the Ukie more or less held on track through 144, so I think the GFS is an outlier at this point. I think we have to wait until Dorian jumps into The Atlantic before really nailing down track. 

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27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Can’t pull gifs right now but essentially the retired GFS scrapes Dorian up the coast and over coastal NC/VA next week. I would not worry about it at all right now (hence the emoji) as everything is still in flux. Canadian shifted south and it looks like the Ukie more or less held on track through 144, so I think the GFS is an outlier at this point. I think we have to wait until Dorian jumps into The Atlantic before really nailing down track. 

Thanks for the read - not many of us up at this hour, but Dorian is looking to garner a lot of interest in the next couple of days.  

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9 minutes ago, RDM said:

Thanks for the read - not many of us up at this hour, but Dorian is looking to garner a lot of interest in the next couple of days.  

I should be sleeping. The intensity guidance has definitely perked up in the last 36 hours. Whether the GFS curve trend takes hold remains to be seen. 

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Guidance continues to move right with Dorians track the next 24 hours. Looking at current satellite and IR it looks as if Dorian is even running right of this guidance. Puerto Rico might just escape with a glancing blow as it just might pass to its east. Of course Hurricanes wobble so we could always see a jog westward again. 

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Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 63.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 63.9 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today.  Dorian is
then forecast to move to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and near or to the east of
the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected today, and Dorian is forecast to be
near hurricane strength when it approaches the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.  Although weakening is possible after Dorian moves
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the storm is forecast to
strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to
the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Western Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Kitts to Anguilla...1
to 4 inches.
Southern and Eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Northwestern Puerto Rico...1 to 4 inches.
Haiti and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches
Southern Bahamas...1 to 4 inches.
Northern Bahamas...3 to 6 inches.
Florida Peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the British Virgin Islands today.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic
tonight and Thursday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the
Lesser Antilles.  Swells are expected to increase later this morning
across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

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Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Satellite images and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate
that Dorian is becoming better organized with banding features now
more established on the north side of the circulation. The
flight-level and SFMR winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
were a little higher in the most recent passes through the storm,
and a blend of that data supports an initial intensity of about 50
kt.  The Hurricane Hunters also reported that Dorian has developed a
partial eyewall and that the minimum pressure has dropped to 1003
mb.  A combination of the reconnaissance data and recent ASCAT
passes were used to modify the initial wind radii, and it confirms
that Dorian remains a compact and asymmetric tropical storm.

Dorian is moving northwestward at 11 kt toward a weakness in the
ridge caused by a cut off mid- to upper-level low to the north of
Hispaniola.  This motion should continue for the next few days,
taking Dorian across the Virgin Islands or the eastern portion of
Puerto Rico later today and to the east of the Bahamas on Thursday
and Friday.  By late in the week, the steering pattern is expected
to change as the models show a ridge building over the western
Atlantic.  The flow between the ridge and the aforementioned mid- to
upper-level low should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and
approach the southeast U.S. coast this weekend.  The new NHC
track forecast is adjusted a little to the right at most forecast
times trending toward the latest consensus aids.  However, there has
been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so
confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users
are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Some additional slow strengthening seems likely today before Dorian
reaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  The land interaction
could end the strengthening trend or even cause some temporary
weakening, however, environmental conditions favor intensification
after the storm pulls northward into the southwestern Atlantic.
Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane
in about 2 days, with additional strengthening beyond that time.
The NHC intensity forecast is increased from the previous one,
especially at the longer forecast times, to be in better agreement
with the latest models.  This forecast, however, is still on the
lower end of the guidance envelope, so additional upward adjustments
could be needed if the guidance trends persists.  It is also worth
noting that the global models show Dorian increasing in size by the
time it nears the southeast U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and are possible in
portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands today.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days.  Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the northwestern Bahamas and along portions of the
Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast late this week remains
higher than usual due to a large spread in the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 16.8N  63.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  28/1800Z 17.9N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  29/0600Z 19.5N  66.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  29/1800Z 21.4N  68.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  30/0600Z 23.3N  69.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  31/0600Z 26.1N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  01/0600Z 27.7N  77.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 29.0N  80.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

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GFS/GFS-P continue to buck other guidance with running this system up the coast to around OBX. Believe this is in response to the GFS twins being quicker with the system the next 72 hrs as well being the outlier with track, right of other guidance. This positioning and speed is allowing the system to come under the influence of the mid-latitude flow and the trough dropping down within it in the east much quicker which is drawing Dorian northward up the coast before an eventual recurve. Not only doesn't other guidance support it but it's own GEFS doesn't agree (talking the mean, haven't looked at the individual members).

All that said, other guidance has generally been and continues to adjust the track NE run over run which is presenting a quicker and more northerly solution when it becomes a threat to the SE. In other words the other guidance may be moving toward a GFS type solution so I don't think I would dismiss the GFS twins as of yet.

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Latest GFS has Doria threatening the coast line from N Florida up to S Carolina before an eventual landfall at 960 mb into central S Carolina before exiting off of southern OBX at 985. Probably one of the more serious scenarios/tracks as the eye stays just inland running up the coast placing central S Carolina coast up to OBX in the stronger NE quadrant of the storm. Considering the track, somewhat slow movement and the slow weakening of this storm this would be a fairly destructive storm for a good deal of the coast. Can't even imagine if the intensity were to come in stronger as we see on some of the model runs.

GFS-P has a 962 mb strike into central/eastern Florida. 

Icon with a 975 MB threatening the southern tip of Florida.

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Latest Eps definitely made a move towards more trougheness to the north especially once close to day 6 . I've been slammed at work ...hoping to get more time to track Dorian the next few days. 

0z Eps Hour 144 - Top

 

Screenshot_20190828-065350_Chrome_crop_346x488.jpg

Yesterday 12z

Screenshot_20190828-065407_Chrome_crop_349x506.jpg

It sure looks like anyone from Florida to Va. Beach is very much in play . 

Edit. 

 

6z Gefs coming in with deeper troughiness similar to Eps. So maby more influence from mid latitude flow as time goes on

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You can see the window for potential RI.  Latest gfs keeps Dorian over water in this window and therefore strengthens greatly.  The Euro even has Dorian strengthening over land just before emerging into the gulf.  That area off the SE coast and the eastern gulf seems primed on all models.

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I can't buy how strong the models wants to make it until it clears PR and Hispaniola.  Dorian has taken its time organizing.  The impact on FL still a long ways off to say it will be a major or even a low grade cane.  I don't trust the GFS but seeing the change on the euro EPS is noteworthy.

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44 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

You can see the window for potential RI.  Latest gfs keeps Dorian over water in this window and therefore strengthens greatly.  The Euro even has Dorian strengthening over land just before emerging into the gulf.  That area off the SE coast and the eastern gulf seems primed on all models.

It was closed yesterday but it’s opening again today. Recon finding a stronger storm right now.

36 minutes ago, H2O said:

I can't buy how strong the models wants to make it until it clears PR and Hispaniola.  Dorian has taken its time organizing.  The impact on FL still a long ways off to say it will be a major or even a low grade cane.  I don't trust the GFS but seeing the change on the euro EPS is noteworthy.

I’m not sure I buy verbatim either, but the center might not even hit PR now. That’s a big change from just 24 hours ago. That center reformation north was key.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It was closed yesterday but it’s opening again today. Recon finding a stronger storm right now.

I’m not sure I buy verbatim either, but the center might not even hit PR now. That’s a big change from just 24 hours ago. That center reformation north was key.

I just read a thread on twitter by Phillip Pappin(sp?) that went in to awesome detail on why it shifted so far north and now looks to clear PR to the east which no model had as of yesterday.  As for the future track, all will ride on how strong and west the mid level ridge extends that will be to the north of Dorian.  Thats where the models really diverge out a week in time.

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Just now, H2O said:

I just read a thread on twitter by Phillip Pappin(sp?) that went in to awesome detail on why it shifted so far north and now looks to clear PR to the east which no model had as of yesterday.  As for the future track, all will ride on how strong and west the mid level ridge extends that will be to the north of Dorian.  Thats where the models really diverge out a week in time.

He’s one of the best.

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Levi Cowan had a great video last night on what will impact the movement of Dorian and the questions we still have.  I really like his videos during tropical season.

The video is still up on the Trop Tidbits homepage for anyone interested.

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20 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Levi Cowan had a great video last night on what will impact the movement of Dorian and the questions we still have.  I really like his videos during tropical season.

The video is still up on the Trop Tidbits homepage for anyone interested.

Tropical Tidbits is Levi's baby... He always does awesome work and cross posts on both his site and Twitter

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My entire twitter timeline has just become one gigantic repetitive 

"DORIAN EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OFF COAST OF FLORIDA BY MONDAY"

 

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Fwiw...Gefs mean has  Dorian reemerging in the gulf after a S . Florida landfall and  possible 2nd LF centered over New Orleans . Looks like this mainly happens because most if not all members miss any  influence from the 1st mid lat trough around day 5/6.

Consequently most members wait for the next trough to get a tug north . Man...I'm rooting for some remnant action here .

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is about the time I leave the main thread and post here almost exclusively...

Narrator: And then they started posting HWRF pics. Puppies died

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

Narrator: And then they started posting HWRF pics. Puppies died

HWRF gets a bad rap but it’s legit. It’s the best tropical intensity model. I pay close attention to it.

Posting the JMA is ban worthy.

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

HWRF gets a bad rap but it’s legit. It’s the best tropical intensity model. I pay close attention to it.

Posting the JMA is ban worthy.

being the best tropical intensity model is like being the most qualified member of trump's cabinet

  • Haha 2

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21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is about the time I leave the main thread and post here almost exclusively...

i'm mostly in there just to laugh at the weenies and hide the occasional post

7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Twitter is easily the worst.

or the best! depending on what entertains you. 

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6 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

being the best tropical intensity model is like being the most qualified member of trump's cabinet

lol

Pretty sure the NHC tosses dice to figure out hurricane categories.

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Good God, the Euro would be catastrophic for Florida. Hits around Palm Beach as a Cat 3, goes across the state, then swings north in the GOM to hit the panhandle. 

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