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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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On cue :wub:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia.

1. An area of disturbed weather located over the central and
northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over
the next several days at it moves toward the Florida peninsula and
then the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Seems like it could be one of those homebrew years.

I am having fond memories of a hurricane that I never experienced. Hurricane Bob (1991)

 

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I was in Ocean City for Hurricane Bob.  There were big Hurricane Warning signs erected on Rt. 50 heading into O.C. trying to persuade folks not to enter.  Evacuations weren't mandatory though.  It was a very strong storm for O.C. with a lot of wind driven rainfall.  Our top floor condo was dripping water in a few spots from the ceiling.   I think the winds were mostly offshore at the height of the storm which spared the city from major wave damage.  Winds were strong and gusty.  The metal railing on our balcony was making wailing sounds during the worst of the winds.  Of course we had the Weather Channel on most of the time back when watching the WC was kind of cool.

Edit - I forgot to mention how cool it was watching the sky change as the storm was approaching from the south during the day.  The wind and rain was mostly a late night and early morning event.

 

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Re: Hurricane Bob...I was working at Islip airport on Long Island the day the storm passed just to our East. It was pretty much a big nothing. We saw one tree down in Holbrook area but that was about it. It rained, but nothing terrible. Obviously New England took a more direct hit.

The Euro has a little something off the coast early next week. Let's hope it picks up soon

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These changes in the trough and ridge orientations and also where the TCs are forming is rather interesting. I am wondering if the Sub-Tropical Atlantic was the Main Development Region 30 million years ago or so and somewhat less active in the Pliocene (3 mya).

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Good news is that it has returned to some extents on the 18z GFS as a very discernible feature at 850mb. This thing is just waiting to unleash itself. Look at the upper levels too (very Bob-Like)

gfs_z850_vort_us_24.png

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It's a shame we cant get a little more interaction with these pieces of energy to maby get a partial capture to keep this potential coastal low from escaping northeast . 

0z Euro 

 

 

Screenshot_20190822-054339_Chrome.jpg

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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Peak Outlook

One of my favorite stories comes from Phil Klotzbach, but has been shared by others. Every year on August 20, the late and legendary Dr. Bill Gray would ring a bell to herald the arrival of the ramp up of hurricane season. One of the things that is important to understand is that although the season starts on June 1, the overwhelming majority of activity occurs between August 20 and October 20th. The last two years, I've predicted significant activity during the peak of the season, but I underestimated its intensity. This year, I want to try something different and put numbers on my prediction. 

The outlook below encompasses the next 60 days, the period between August 22 and October 20. Feel free to troll if this is a disaster :lol: 

j68lZbN.gif

 

WxWatcher007 Forecast 
Number of Named Storms: 8
Number of Hurricanes: 4
Number of Major Hurricanes: 2

 

I have been bullish on an active peak, but unlike the prior two years, the signals for an active and quieter peak counterbalance each other well. Rather than give a range, I figured I would go specific, but I would consider this a success if I am +/- 1 in a given category. 

Overall Current Environment
Earlier in the season, I said that things were hostile but were simmering in the basin. I still believe that to be true, although I did not anticipate the lack of instability in the MDR (independent of SAL) being such an overwhelming factor in the inability of increasingly vigorous waves to develop. Sometimes things can simmer without boiling over, and that's where we've been. 

Even in the face of some well timed CCKWs, the MJO has been weak and we've seen too much sinking air in the MDR. That has effectively kept a lid on everything. 

Despite some well placed outbreaks, SAL hasn't been historically bad. SSTs have been warm across most of the basin, but in the critical region for CV development, the eastern MDR, SSTs have actually been below normal, further compounding the hostile environment waves have faced. Shear has been hit or miss, but far lower on average than what we would have seen if we remained in a Nino regime. Interestingly, we've seen cooling in other parts of the Atlantic recently while a warming in the MDR. 

vRFvZNb.gif

Overall, the environment has been more favorable in the western Atlantic and we have seen that through the development of our three named storms. Andrea formed off the SE coast. Barry in the Gulf, and Chantal off the east coast and north of 40N, which is uncommon. 

Where we're headed
Consistent with the approaching climatological peak of the season, things are starting to change in the basin. 

SST/TCHP
The expansive nature of warm SSTs should allow for the homebrew region to be open for potential activity through early to mid October. With regard to TCHP, although the best values are limited in terms of geographic scope, there are three areas that need to be highlighted. First, there is a very significant warm eddy in the Gulf that lies near a typical northward moving track of late season Caribbean systems. This is to the NW of a rather large area of extreme TCHP off the coasts of SW Florida and Cuba. Second, the entire Western Caribbean--that speaks for itself. Finally, the area off the East Coast looks rather significant. The gif below shows June-July-August changes in TCHP. Looking at the last ten days however (not pictured here), TCHP has continued to increase in the homebrew region. 

giphy.gif

Wind Shear
A while back, I posted an image of they typical VWS anomaly in ASO during various ENSO states. Here is what things tend to look like in a warm neutral regime

jeRDPKg.jpg

 

Here's the 5 day averaged projected wind shear from the long range GEFS for early September

VMpIsdn.png

 

And here's the absolute value

gfs-ens_ashear_atl_65.png

That's a robust signal for activity as far as wind shear is concerned. One important caveat is the location and strength of PV streamers, which impart shear on tropical waves and systems and can serve as a significant inhibiting factor for development. I expect that the atmosphere continues to resemble a warm neutral regime as we head into September and October, which means that shear is unlikely to be a significant roadblock for development in general. 

Moisture/SAL/Instability
Although this season has made it clear that SAL and instability should be considered independent factors, I am tying everything together here. As I mentioned earlier, the SAL has been below historical standards, but it does seem to have been well placed. This has had a couple of different impacts. First, it has, through the SAL, helped to place a cap on much of the MDR. I believe it has an impact on relative humidity levels in the basin as well. With sinking air coming from the suppressive phases of the MJO and CCKW, this has helped reduce instability in the tropical Atlantic greatly. This has not had the same effect in other parts of the Atlantic Basin, further bolstering my argument that the homebrew region is most likely to be active.

Atmospheric Conditions
Finally, an important consideration in a basin that has counterbalancing factors is the role of items like the MJO and CCKWs as they enhance rising motion and convection in both the basin and across Africa. I'll readily admit that I still have quite a bit to learn in this space, but it looks like over the next month at least we will likely see at least one period where atmospheric conditions are more favorable. We're currently in it. A CCKW has traversed the Atlantic. Although we haven't seen any development from waves, what is perhaps more important is that the CCKW is expected to increase the potency of African waves, through the enhancement of an already potent African Monsoon. I think we've seen some pretty strong waves this season, and as we reach the peak, those waves are getting stronger and will be enhanced in both quality and quantity by atmospheric conditions. 

The key factor here, I think, is that the lead waves are likely to reduce SAL in conjunction with the climatological reduction of SAL outbreaks and extent. That should create more favorable MDR conditions toward the middle and end of September, provided we don't quickly revert back to sinking motion in the MDR. 


I wish I could say a lot more, but I've been time limited recently. Here's a quick summary of the next few weeks:

  • I think that the last third of August (21-31) is relatively quiet, with 1-2 named storms. I expect one in the homebrew region (defined as Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Western Atlantic), and another in the MDR.
     
  • Early September (1-10) is also likely to be on the quieter side, with increasing activity toward the end of the period as we see a drop in SAL consistent with climatology, drop in wind shear consistent with an accelerating warm neutral ENSO atmospheric response in the tropical Atlantic, and increase in SST/TCHP consistent with climatology and the overall upper air pattern. This period may feature our first major hurricane of the season.  
     
  • I do not like looking at the upper level pattern and projecting, but I think this peak brings and active period for the US for reasons outlined much better by HM and others. I see three landfalls during this period: one tropical storm landfall, one hurricane landfall, and one major landfall. I think the areas most likely to be impacted are the areas climatologically favored--I do not see a higher than normal risk north of Virginia Beach, but it is incredibly important to remember that landfall locations are very hard if not impossible to predict with much accuracy at long range. 

Thanks for reading. I wish I had more time to dive deeper. Let me know what you think. 

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On 8/21/2019 at 10:12 AM, Vice-Regent said:

I am having fond memories of a hurricane that I never experienced. Hurricane Bob (1991)

 

Lived in East Falmouth, walking distance to Bristol Beach. We had sustained winds near 100, gusts over category 3. It's an underrated hurricane being nearly 30 years old and only striking a small geographic area. It could be argued it was a borderline 3.

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98L is up to 50% 5 day odds with the development of a broad center. If the Euro is right and its center stays offshore it should develop.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

1. Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of
low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the
central Bahamas.  This system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over
the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast
United States coast.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and
the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Roberts

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@WxWatcher007Thought I would beat the rush and troll you now. Where's our Hurricanes!!!!??? :D

As usual, a very nice write up. One suggestion though. You throw a lot of acronyms out there. Could you spell them out for us? I don't dive into tropical like you do so some are somewhat unfamiliar to me especially this early in the morning. Had to go look up a couple. Of course after seeing what they stood for it was a...

Homer Simpson's reaction | Computer Reaction Faces | Know ...

 

Funny you mentioned Dr Gray. He was the first experience I had with a professional when I first began tracking. Week or so before the 96 blizzard I joined the board (this same board before its many transitions) and he led us to the promised land. Was very enjoyable reading his write ups leading into the storm and he basically nailed it a week or so out despite the No!!! being advertised on the models for quite awhile. It was all about pattern recognition and knowing the weaknesses and the faults of the models themselves. He was probably the best I have ever followed to this day. 

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We went from dead quiet to a named storm and two invests in the blink of an eye. Just looking quickly at things 99L (the MDR bittie) might be something to watch if it stays further north in the long range.

Meanwhile, 98L is looking pretty decent just off the coast of Florida despite proximity to land. I wouldn’t bother with the super long range stuff. The guidance has struggled a lot this season in the medium range, ensembles and operationals. I have zero expectation whatsoever that they’ll be able to precisely forecast the strength/location/orientation of ridges and troughs ten days from now, let alone 40. The beauty (or terror) of tracking tropical is that oftentimes you’re playing without the full picture until we’re close in. 

Florence is a great example.

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98L is getting all the attention off the coast of Florida, but 99L is looking like a prime candidate to become the next named storm. Eric Webb posted the most recent ASCAT image and while still elongated, 99L is making progress toward tropical genesis. Would be a win for the GFS. 

S9I9LRe.png

Finally, we’re tracking legit tropical. :) 

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I'm surprised 99L isn't already a TD.  We've seen NHC name a storm that's less than this.

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Both 98L (SE Coast) and 99L (MDR--Main Development Region) have made progress today in organizing. I'm in agreement with EJ above--99L could easily be classified as a tropical depression based on morning ASCAT and microwave data, along with satellite data. Convection has waned a bit though, and we'll see what happens over the course of the evening. It really wouldn't take much to get that classified as a TD. 

As for 98L, while convection has been pretty consistent today, it is still fighting disorganization and proximity to land. As you can see on the Euro, once it begins to head northeast, it begins to deepen quite a bit. Thus far, the pattern for 98L does not look conducive for an US East Coast landfall. Signals are more mixed for 99L, should it survive the next few days in a somewhat favorable environment. 

Interesting to note that right now at least, the GFS has seemed lost with handling 98L while the Euro has been lost trying to handle 99L. Models have struggled so far this season. 

hl9D97T.gif

wdt74Mp.gif

qnQmyn7.jpg

Q0LcpDL.png

6bovfGl.png

KbrCp9V.jpg

 

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Looks like there's a good chance 98L will set up a easterly fetch with some resulting showers by early Tuesday morning for many  . Also most guidance is slowing forward progession down . Tropical can be a slippery one for models sometimes.  Something else I noticed comparing last nights 0z and today's  Euro runs .... The latest strengthens the surface low sooner and that pumps up hieghts to the northeast . I wonder if this low really  ramps up quickly and continued slow poleward progession if it might move in a more northerly trajectory before turning northeast . And Maybe giving the eastern shore some more direct effects.  Interesting tracking ahead even though this is most likely a fish storm .

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18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like there's a good chance 98L will set up a easterly fetch with some resulting showers by early Tuesday morning for many  . Also most guidance is slowing forward progession down . Tropical can be a slippery one for models sometimes.  Something else I noticed comparing Euro runs . The latest strengthens the surface low sooner and that pumps up hieghts to the northeast . I wonder if this low really  ramps up quickly and continued slow poleward progession if it might move in a more northerly trajectory before turning northeast . And Maybe giving the eastern shore some more direct effects.  Interesting tracking ahead even though this is most likely a fish storm .

Not saying that this is a threat here, but this presentation on predecessor rain events (PRE) is worth a read every season.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt

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8 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like there's a good chance 98L will set up a easterly fetch with some resulting showers by early Tuesday morning for many  . Also most guidance is slowing forward progession down . Tropical can be a slippery one for models sometimes.  Something else I noticed comparing last nights 0z and today's  Euro runs .... The latest strengthens the surface low sooner and that pumps up hieghts to the northeast . I wonder if this low really  ramps up quickly and continued slow poleward progession if it might move in a more northerly trajectory before turning northeast . And Maybe giving the eastern shore some more direct effects.  Interesting tracking ahead even though this is most likely a fish storm .

Lol...overnight runs went the opposite direction.  

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3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Lol...overnight runs went the opposite direction.  

Don't you hate when that happens. :lol:

Can't count how often I have written something up on what the models are showing over a bunch of prior runs just to have the models completely flip just hours later giving me the big middle finger. Tracking though fun can be very frustrating at times.

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