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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I mean...wasn't Harvey a Cat 1? (of course, I know this one isn't forecasted to stall like that, but even so...)

Harvey hit as a 4 but meandered as a Cat 1/TS.

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31 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I'm not a tropical expert, but I don't think that this thing is going to have enough time to build up a dangerous surge.  Freshwater flooding is a much bigger concern, especially with the waterlogged conditions down there anyway.  They should be talking to people in flood-prone and low-lying areas.

At least. hell, just yesterday there was flooding and that was from training storms. a prolonged rain event, even from a tropical storm, is going to have long lasting effects. really silly to say no evacuations because its not Cat 3. 

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I presume not having mandatory evacuations is what some say will be a bad decision.  For what areas... all of New Orleans or ?

It's a fine line to walk. Making seniors etc kids everyone but looters leave, businesses shutter, is not an easy call. I understand an over abundance of caution is the standing order of the day, and it's an easy call from the outside. I think closer to game time, a more focused area of evacs will be more effective, and MN T said - focused near levee's. The last I saw the 20' levees were not forecast to be topped, but of course is damn close.  If breaches of levees are being forecast, that is different.

I will be a salmon and say its too soon for blanket evacs; maybe more important than the mandatory evacs right now, is the mobilization of FEMA / emergency services. I assume they are aggressively mobilizing...

 

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3knam latest qpf for Barry through 60 hr.:o

 

Screenshot_20190711-173509_Samsung capture_crop_540x719.jpg

This potential is looking worse by the hour for these folks.  

Euro keeps the center of Barry  in the gulf through 12z Saturday.  That's ample time to strengthen ...40 +-  hrs.from now . Busy tracking next couple days. 

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Pretty big difference between the Ukmet ensembles and Eps . Many Ukmet ensembles like the  Houston eastern burbs  and mean  centered over the Tx , La border . Eps is definitely the one to lean on but interesting this close in.

Ukmet ensembles 

Screenshot_20190711-183329_Chrome_crop_534x887.jpg

Eps

Screenshot_20190711-183302_Chrome_crop_540x935.jpg

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
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0z Euro went back to the idea of Barry's circulation remnant crossing through central Va and reintensifying off Va coast it had 24 hours ago . A lot of time to track ...too early to think we dont get a piece of Barry.

Eps has a cluster of  lows that follow that general idea

 

Screenshot_20190712-063218_Samsung capture_crop_432x597.jpg

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Anything to have #BoringBarry give us some interesting weather will be a win

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

0z Euro went back to the idea of Barry's circulation remnant crossing through central Va and reintensifying off Va coast it had 24 hours ago . A lot of time to track ...too early to think we dont get a piece of Barry.

Eps has a cluster of  lows that follow that general idea

 

Screenshot_20190712-063218_Samsung capture_crop_432x597.jpg

I saw the op this morning and was pretty impressed. Your image above is even more impressive. There are some potent lows in there. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I saw the op this morning and was pretty impressed. Your image above is even more impressive. There are some potent lows in there. 

Yes. I'd be staring at that 989 just to my east. That would be fun/interesting.  

Barry looks like crapola. Lots of media hype. I'm curious to see if the rain performs as modeled in some cases.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I saw the op this morning and was pretty impressed. Your image above is even more impressive. There are some potent lows in there. 

Depends...is this thing racing through in 12 hours or are we gonna get a full day of action out of it?  The trajectory coming over the mountains isn't the best for us here...typically it dries the system out.  

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12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Depends...is this thing racing through in 12 hours or are we gonna get a full day of action out of it?  The trajectory coming over the mountains isn't the best for us here...typically it dries the system out.  

Nice track and slow would be nice . Don't  have time to look but I think Camille was a similar track as future Barry and came west to east over the mountains with historic deadly flooding on the east side of the mountains ...but that was a strong hurricane at landfall and I'm sure the remnant circulation was more intact .

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice track and slow would be nice . Don't  have time to look but I think Camille was a similar track as future Barry and came west to east over the mountains with historic deadly flooding on the east side of the mountains ...but that was a strong hurricane at landfall and I'm sure the remnant circulation was more intact .

Yea I'm not discounting any tropical that can get up here, but it'd be nice to see it come more SW -> NE than straight E -> W and slower.

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Wouldn’t take much rain for most areas in the Immediate metro to cause problems given the recent rains already. 

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39 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice track and slow would be nice . Don't  have time to look but I think Camille was a similar track as future Barry and came west to east over the mountains with historic deadly flooding on the east side of the mountains ...but that was a strong hurricane at landfall and I'm sure the remnant circulation was more intact .

Several differences between both. Barry looks to make landfall 150-200 miles to the west of camille. Don't have 500 mbs of camille but looking at track I am guessing that it was picked up by a trough allowing for a quicker transit eastward as well an enhancement of rain with an developing extratropical low. Looking more and more likely that Barry will get caught in no-man's land for a period of time in the central us with a very slow progression eastward. Not what we want to see with a much weaker system as the circulation will be for the most part all but gone by the time it makes it in our general direction. Our hope here is that we see interaction with a trough that will be dropping down in the east but I am not really enamored with timing and placement at this time. Think at this point we are pretty much on life support for seeing anything somewhat meaningful for our region with the best odds in va and south.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Several differences between both. Barry looks to make landfall 150-200 miles to the west of camille. Don't have 500 mbs of camille but looking at track I am guessing that it was picked up by a trough allowing for a quicker transit eastward as well an enhancement of rain with an developing extratropical low. Looking more and more likely that Barry will get caught in no-man's land for a period of time in the central us with a very slow progression eastward. Not what we want to see with a much weaker system as the circulation will be for the most part all but gone by the time it makes it in our general direction. Our hope here is that we see interaction with a trough that will be dropping down in the east but I am not really enamored with timing and placement at this time. Think at this point we are pretty much on life support for seeing anything somewhat meaningful for our region with the best odds in va and south.

Yea...all valid points . Yea ...I knew Camille was a further east landfall and every mile east is bonus for sure . The bolded no doubt is probably key. 

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Looking at mid level water vapor the dry air to the north seems to be far enough away to not impede Barry's development one would think. Latest satellite images look decent 

 

20190712_140235.gif

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12z Eps still has a cluster of lows that redevelop east of the mountains...maby not quite as big as a cluster as 0z. But when I looked deeper there's actually a signal for a cluster of lows ( particularly the ones that get caught in @showmethesnows no man's land and are delayed with there eventual eastern movement) . Several of these members dive southeast towards the Carolinas coast around day 8-10  and explode once they get near the Atlantic...pretty interesting but wayy out there .

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10 hours ago, jewell2188 said:

Wouldn’t take much rain for most areas in the Immediate metro to cause problems given the recent rains already. 

We'll need about 5" - 7" for problems regionwide.  Many of the streams have already dropped back.

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This thread is  dead pretty much ..so I figured I'd post some history.  A lot of people are familiar with the incredible rain amounts from Hurricane Agnes in 72' ...but few know that 3 years later many of the same areas got crushed again by Eloise . Westminster recorded 14 inches from both . Man I wish I could of witnessed back to back 50 to 100  year rains like that .

 

Screenshot_20190712-194030_Chrome_crop_539x548.jpg

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Big circulation envelope.  Check out the nice ventilation to the south....All the way to the Yucatan. Not enough time for RI I wouldnt think.  Is the northerly shear supposed to continue until landfall?

20191932326_GOES16-ABI-gm-08-500x500.jpg.205e94243e5db26f7059ee4e3e4ff098.jpg

 

One of these days we'll be tracking tropical in our neck of the woods....  I'd give up a good winter for a real deal inland tropical experience.

 

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22 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Big circulation envelope.  Check out the nice ventilation to the south....All the way to the Yucatan. Not enough time for RI I wouldnt think.  Is the northerly shear supposed to continue until landfall?

20191932326_GOES16-ABI-gm-08-500x500.jpg.205e94243e5db26f7059ee4e3e4ff098.jpg

 

One of these days we'll be tracking tropical in our neck of the woods....  I'd give up a good winter for a real deal inland tropical experience.

 

Gotta love that "feathery look" venting 

I tend to agree with you on an inland hit here over a good winter . 

 

A couple hours ago Barry was trying to wrap convection around on the east side which was nice to see . 

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Some decent feeders already coming into Southern La and even near  Biloxi Ms . I have a feeling tomorrow will be off the hook with training feeders . Hope those in low lying areas stay safe .

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