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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Up to 60% now. New lion GFS reverses course and follows the Euro further west, while the retired GFS develops a decently intense tropical storm that scrapes up to the NC/VA border before heading out to sea. GEFS following the op for now. 

Maybe the WAR will impact this and instead of a move NE towards, VA and NC, maybe this does develop and drifts West across the Northern Gulf of Mexico, speculation of course but certainly an outcome. 

I mean I take the Euro as a decent indicator, lets see the overnight run, along with what the other models do as well.

Maybe the moisture makes a move North after any eventual landfall, as seen here.  In this case not as exciting for us I imagine. 

 

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12 minutes ago, frd said:

Maybe the WAR will impact this and instead of a move NE towards, VA and NC, maybe this does develop and drifts West across the Northern Gulf of Mexico, speculation of course but certainly an outcome. 

I mean I take the Euro as a decent indicator, lets see the overnight run, along with what the other models do as well.

Maybe the moisture makes a move North after any eventual landfall, as seen here.  In this case not as exciting for us I imagine.

I feel better about development each day, so I think that's likely to happen at this point, but the track forecast is still entirely up in the air.

There's a lot more moving parts than usual here, and I don't think we're really going to get good track consensus until we get something organizing in the Gulf. 

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The shift west continues tonight on the GFS, with a due west trajectory through 108. Not a whole lot of meaningful intensification though as it remains large and disorganized. Pretty interesting run..

ETA: Texas landfall lol

For reference—the 18z retired GFS had the low in Jacksonville at 138. Tonight it’s near Houston :yikes: 

New GFS not as bad :thumbsup:

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6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The shift west continues tonight on the GFS, with a due west trajectory through 108. Not a whole lot of meaningful intensification though as it remains large and disorganized. Pretty interesting run..

ETA: Texas landfall lol

For reference—the 18z retired GFS had the low in Jacksonville at 138. Tonight it’s near Houston :yikes: 

New GFS not as bad :thumbsup:

Don't really have much confidence for any sort of impact for our region even if we do see development. We have a northwest flow throughout that time period that would shunt any moisture far to our south on its easterly track after a gulf landfall. I will say though that if the system can hang out in the Gulf for a couple/few days before any landfall that the upper level flow looks to improve day 10+ to possibly bring in some tropical moisture from that system. Of course this is all contingent on the models being somewhat correct with the upper levels and that in fact we do see development. 

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't really have much confidence for any sort of impact for our region even if we do see development. We have a northwest flow throughout that time period that would shunt any moisture far to our south on its easterly track after a gulf landfall. I will say though that if the system can hang out in the Gulf for a couple/few days before any landfall that the upper level flow looks to improve day 10+ to possibly bring in some tropical moisture from that system. Of course this is all contingent on the models being somewhat correct with the upper levels and that in fact we do see development. 

I do think we get development in the Gulf, but it’s looking more evident that the upper level pattern is not going to favor a northeasterly trajectory. At least one that impacts the area in the way that was hinted at the last few days.

For good remnants the region really needs an eastern Gulf coast event with a north to northeast progression. 

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16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

For good remnants the region really needs an eastern Gulf coast event with a north to northeast progression. 

Optimal for our region is to see the moisture from a decaying system streaming up the east side of the appalachians from the deep south/gulf. Other wise the mountains can take a serious toll on rainfall. Don't know how often we have seen the models show a good hit with rainfall with showing the moisture on the west side of the mountains to then not even come close to verifying. 

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17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Optimal for our region is to see the moisture from a decaying system streaming up the east side of the appalachians from the deep south/gulf. Other wise the mountains can take a serious toll on rainfall. Don't know how often we have seen the models show a good hit with rainfall with showing the moisture on the west side of the mountains to then not even come close to verifying. 

As of right now(subject to change) the euro says congrats Detroit for sloppy seconds.  eastern US HP over the south will ring of fire the tropical around to our north.  What would be hilarious is a subtle shift of the ridge to make the remnants become derecho like and come at us in that NW flow.

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

With NHC odds up to 80%, I figured it's time for a thread. 

ncxuOqz.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days.  Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast.  Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.  For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center.  Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

 

The overview above is a good summary. For the last few days we've been tracking a trough of low pressure tracking over the eastern CONUS toward the Gulf of Mexico. This has been expected to interact with a boundary over the Gulf, initiating tropical genesis. The signal for development has gotten stronger in the last few days, and all the major guidance has projected development in some form. You can see the vorticity signature pretty well at 850mb. 

fccq3PX.gif

Looking at the environment in the Gulf, conditions are generally favorable for development. First let's look at SSTs and TCHP. Things are warm in the Gulf as they usually are, but this season has led to significant positive anomalies with regard to SSTs. TCHP on the other hand, is a bit lower, but still enough for development and intensification. Note the warm eddy that lies in the path of the potential system should it take a more westward track. 

Wl8Mu4J.jpg

lDoj4v5.png

873uFf3.png

With regard to moisture, unlike much of the Atlantic basin, the Gulf does not have a particularly dry environment. It is important to note that the GFS, which has been less robust with intensification, does have some dry air lurking to the north of the system toward the end of the forecast period. How much entrainment occurs is critical to the development of convection. 

giphy.gif

Shear is another thing to consider, and while there is currently low shear in the Gulf, there are some indications looking at the GFS soundings that later in the forecast period some northerly shear could act to limit organization. That said, shear does not look particularly strong during the period. For some prior GFS runs, there was increased shear interacting with the system in the eastern Gulf because of an east coast trough, but that signal has faded almost completely in recent runs. 

GVq2ynL.gif

Intensity forecasting is hard. It is particularly difficult with something as broad as this and relatively little time over water. One potential limitation I see particularly on the GFS is the size of the system making it difficult to organize in time. The Euro hasn't had that issue, showing steady intensification once the mid level vort is able to develop a surface low. As a result, we see a stronger system on the Euro and most recently the legacy (old) GFS. 

It's important to note that we saw something similar with 91L, with proximity to land and shear keeping development from happening until it was too late. This was even as the Euro was most bullish with development.

The bottom line is that things remain up in the air both in track and intensity, so folks all along the Gulf should keep a close eye on this one. 

 

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5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I do think we get development in the Gulf, but it’s looking more evident that the upper level pattern is not going to favor a northeasterly trajectory. At least one that impacts the area in the way that was hinted at the last few days.

For good remnants the region really needs an eastern Gulf coast event with a north to northeast progression. 

Exactly . 

The trend is rather solid at this point . 

 

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Ukie has more of a  northern push after landfall then its  0z run. Finds a little weakness in the ridge . Still not ideal for sure for big remnants 

12z Day 5

 

Screenshot_20190708-125756_Chrome_crop_540x736.jpg

Day 6

Screenshot_20190708-125806_Chrome_crop_518x809.jpg

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukie has more of a  northern push after landfall then 0z run

Day 5

 

Screenshot_20190708-125756_Chrome_crop_540x736.jpg

Day 6

Screenshot_20190708-125806_Chrome_crop_518x809.jpg

That's rather interesting, also at this point we get the High pressure ridge in the center of the Country to become more of a player by day 7 through 10.

That feature will be responsible for the heat wave by mid month and beyond.  

Wonder if maybe it drifts West and continues to go West or maybe it comes ashore in the Northern GOM and then moves North and abruptly due East. All speculation on my part . You would think the EPS should have the handle on this today.   

 

 

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LWX was pretty meh in the AFD about any affects up here... which kinda sucks.  Hopefully whatever develops isn't a super slow mover that causes massive flooding

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3 hours ago, mappy said:

finally. something to track. 

It's not going to affect us though so it's another bust locally.

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13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's not going to affect us though so it's another bust locally.

Ummm it can still be tracked.  Who effing cares if it doesn't hit us directly.  For some of us we don't need everything to be IMBY to be interested.  JFC

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's not going to affect us though so it's another bust locally.

Every named storm that doesn't affect us is a bust?  Damn, that's a high bar.

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Checkout the sim IR on the 3k at hour 60 . Pretty symmetrical and all that  pretty dark dense deep convection wrapped all the way around .

 

Screenshot_20190709-200116_Chrome_crop_540x683.jpg

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It’s great that I’ve posted so much about the HWRF I don’t have to come in here and caveat the mess out of that first run.

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Long range Euro doesn’t keep the remnants of 92L buried in the south. Verbatim it guides whatever’s left along a big ridge and develops it into a powerful extra tropical system over New England at day 10. 

Obviously not likely to play out like that but remnants are still worth watching in the longer term. 

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18 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's not going to affect us though so it's another bust locally.

don't ever change my friend

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Long range Euro doesn’t keep the remnants of 92L buried in the south. Verbatim it guides whatever’s left along a big ridge and develops it into a powerful extra tropical system over New England at day 10. 

Obviously not likely to play out like that but remnants are still worth watching in the longer term. 

Yeah that would be an interesting evolution. Still would probably be too far west and then north of us for much other than breezy conditions with the pressure gradient. I want my tornader remnants!

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I think I had just as much time invested in (Harvey ) which didnt give mby any excitement,  as I did the 2016 Blizzard:D . I couldn't get enough. Any really  exciting or anomalous weather I'm deep in the chase game .

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Looks like the old GFS and the ICON are the only ones right now that give us a chance.  Not exactly the powerhouse team and wouldnt be a direct impact.  A decent southerly flow with high PWATS and a tropical low lingering to the west would be fun tho...

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LWX AFD from this afternoon seems to think we may get some remnants next week 

A little bit of uncertainty regarding the forecast early next week.
Monday looks to be a dry day, but certainly can`t rule out an
afternoon shower or thunderstorm, depending on of the trough to our
northeast moves away from the area, rather than hanging around a
little longer. By Tuesday, we start to potentially deal with the
remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone 2. However, those details are
far too uncertain at this time. For now, will maintain chance POPs
with a slight chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. Not expecting any
major impacts at this time, as the system looks to move through our
region rather quickly. We will be monitoring model trends closely
over the coming days, so stay tuned for any changes, as this system
is really just getting started in the Gulf of Mexico.

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