Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,514
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Raifu
    Newest Member
    Raifu
    Joined
WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

Recommended Posts

38 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z Euro wants to know what storm we are talking about... or rather wants to know what TS in the next 10 days?

ETA: Weak system appears Day 9-10... but looks nothing like what the 12z GFS showed at all

Yeah the intensity signal is totally useless at this range. That’s fantasy fodder. What matters is that all reliable guidance has tropical genesis and more importantly, the environment is favorable. You know this—just saying it for the lurkers.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z Euro wants to know what storm we are talking about... or rather wants to know what TS in the next 10 days?

ETA: Weak system appears Day 9-10... but looks nothing like what the 12z GFS showed at all

Think the real threat might be in two phases,  one early and one much later .  Thinking threat in later Sept and another later in October. 

From Ventrice   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah the intensity signal is totally useless at this range. That’s fantasy fodder. What matters is that all reliable guidance has tropical genesis and more importantly, the environment is favorable. You know this—just saying it for the lurkers.

18z GFS keeps the fantasy alive albeit further west than previous 4 runs.   Interesting for now.  Nothing else to track. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BristowWx said:

18z GFS keeps the fantasy alive albeit further west than previous 4 runs.   Interesting for now.  Nothing else to track. 

I need sleep so this brief reprieve is welcomed. There won’t be much sleep soon. People don’t realize how much goes into a chase, especially a tropical one. I’m exhausted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only a portion of this is hurricane related,  but the landscape fits to a degree a background and velocity state favorable for East Coast canes 

October should trend wetter in time as well. 

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I need sleep so this brief reprieve is welcomed. There won’t be much sleep soon. People don’t realize how much goes into a chase, especially a tropical one. I’m exhausted.

You are a legend now my friend.  You can sleep when you’re dead!

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surreal scenes here  .... very sad  

the reinforced structures just crumbled  and the  debarking of trees is a site to behold..... vegetation simply blown away...

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still interested in that SW Atlantic wave that’s heading toward the Gulf. Lower ceiling but could develop with some of the guidance still hinting at a better environment in a few days. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Odds increasing a bit. Far from a lock on development though. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos is producing
widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the Turks
and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, and extending northward
over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports
indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some
of the heavier squalls.  Limited development of this disturbance is
expected during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward across the Bahamas due to only marginally
conducive upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become more favorable for development when the system moves over the
Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week
and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday
and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Odds increasing a bit. Far from a lock on development though. 

Your planned goodnight sleep: "Mr.Reaper I don't feel so good..."

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think you’re fine, and if not, I’ll probably see you there. :P 

if not and there are evacs, then we have to go home lol

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At 12z both the gfs and euro with a hurricane moving thru the Bahamas D9/10. Big differences in the speed and depth of the trough rolling through the center of the country. Euro with a faster/shallower trough...which I tend to believe. I’d rather roll the dice with a gfs Solution which has all the ingredients on the table that can create a mid Atlantic hit of some sort. Would think the euro probably leaves the door open on the SE coast as the hurricane misses the trough.

All analyzing 12z op runs out in the LR....but the first time I’ve seen the two somewhat agree on position and timing.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

18z GFS with a recurve way out in the middle of the Atlantic. Finds a weakness and just says baiii

That's actually from a different system to east of the one that has been giving us fantasy hits. This GFS run completely dropped development of our fantasy hit.

Flippity floppiting a dippery doppering still going on at this range of course.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ukmet rides 95L north to the Va/Nc line by day 7 . Probably some healthy rain esp for the southern part of  forum at least . Eps actually has a cluster of members that develop 95L sub 1000 in the eastern gulf . Not many with a Ukie esk track though .. FWIW. 

 

Screenshot_20190911-202349_Chrome_crop_351x638.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, George BM said:

That's actually from a different system to east of the one that has been giving us fantasy hits. This GFS run completely dropped development of our fantasy hit.

Flippity floppiting a dippery doppering still going on at this range of course.

It's having a hard time separating waves from the ITCZ. The signal is still there for something to pop, but it's all over the place right now. 

46 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukmet rides 95L north to the Va/Nc line by day 7 . Probably some healthy rain esp for the southern part of  forum at least . Eps actually has a cluster of members that develop 95L sub 1000 in the eastern gulf . Not many with a Ukie esk track though .. FWIW. 

 

Screenshot_20190911-202349_Chrome_crop_351x638.jpg

18z Euro actually followed the Ukie a bit.

It's plausible considering the low level and mid level centers are not currently aligned. If the mid level center continues to see the heavier convection, we could get it to work down to the surface as the low level center further SW dies out. We saw what that did with regard to Dorian's eventual track which avoided significant land interaction. 

wi1aG7p.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at vorticity maps the OP Euro... and Eps as well  have  been trending a little stronger with Invest 95L energy overall.  Probably mainly due to more separation from western gulf energy. ..at least that's what I see looking at the vorticity maps. I'm sure there are other variables 

 

Screenshot_20190911-214457_Chrome_crop_340x329.jpg

Screenshot_20190911-214507_Chrome_crop_351x346.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big changes overnight on 95L. Strong hurricane per Euro and Ukmet ,Icon, Cmc tracking up the se coast.  Euro almost looks to do a Sandy esk hook left and another hurricane comes a few days later in similar fashion . Busy tracking ahead :D

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the op has  decent support from the Eps as far as development off Florida but most eventually go out to sea . Ukmet ensembles have several good tracks for the mid Atlantic. Gfs says what storm .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like the op has  decent support from the Eps . Gfs says what storm .

I will still never understand how this happens.  You'd like to think that at this point every model uses the same algorithms and formulas, with subtle differences, so that big discrepancies like this don't occur.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, H2O said:

I will still never understand how this happens.  You'd like to think that at this point every model uses the same algorithms and formulas, with subtle differences, so that big discrepancies like this don't occur.

It's more of the fact that we have no clue how to forecast hurricanes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×