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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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CanSIPS for your viewing pleasure.........    

 

 

 

 

 

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Reading over the CSU updated hurricane season forecast right now. As I expected, they went a little higher than the April forecast. Still near normal.

Interestingly, they also increased landfall probabilities a bit. Again, near normal.

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5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

91L just can't seem to get it together. Running out of time. 

Its done... NHC says 20% chance now at 2pm and HH were canceled.  

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

Its done... NHC says 20% chance now at 2pm and HH were canceled.  

Yep. Euro (and the other guidance) really came up short on this one. It had a good environment but just couldn’t organize itself. Not too often we see failure to launch in the BOC.

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55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep. Euro (and the other guidance) really came up short on this one. It had a good environment but just couldn’t organize itself. Not too often we see failure to launch in the BOC.

It appears to pop something off the Southeast coast later in the run.

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20 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It appears to pop something off the Southeast coast later in the run.

Is that the Noreaster I head them mention on the news? Can't remember if it was Channel NBC 4 or Fox 5. But, next week was supposed to be a washout from a storm riding up the coast. No mention of it being tropical. 

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1 hour ago, adelphi_sky said:

Is that the Noreaster I head them mention on the news? Can't remember if it was Channel NBC 4 or Fox 5. But, next week was supposed to be a washout from a storm riding up the coast. No mention of it being tropical. 

The operational guidance has been a bit all over the place. Most of the guidance has tried to spawn multiple lows over the next week.

There are some signals that one of those could take on some subtropical characteristics, but right now things do not look (purely) tropical. Just something to casually watch. 

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SSTs are cookin' in the homebrew :wub: region

Going to take some time to get things going in the MDR and Caribbean, but as you can see from the actual SSTs and (more importantly) TCHP, things are simmering a little. 

Note that the GOM has been working with really warm temperatures. Unlike the other "sub-basins", the Gulf has been consistently above normal, and at times significantly so.  

It's only one piece of the puzzle, but interesting nonetheless. 

cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png

2019157at.jpg

2019157atd26.png

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Crapola hurricane season incoming?

I don't think he is making that statement. 

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This period (June-July) tends to be hostile so while not great for tropical prospects that plot from the Euro fits with climo.

If we want something we’re going to have to squeeze it in. 91L failed and the window closed quickly after it was out of the picture. Homebrew region is where the game is played this early in the season.

Watch the SAL and wind shear trends over the next few months. We’ll see where we are then. Can you believe Labor Day is only ~80 days away?

peakofseason_sm.gif

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On 6/12/2019 at 11:32 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Watch the SAL and wind shear trends over the next few months.

Feel we get more active when we typically do, in August.  With the way the pattern and the SAL looks anything of interest would need to form close by. ( as you mentioned previously ) 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, frd said:

Feel we get more active when we typically do, in August.  With the way the pattern and the SAL looks anything of interest would need to form close by. ( as you mentioned previously ) 

 

 

 

This feels a lot like the last two seasons.

There are still a number of counteracting factors and significant uncertainty over what the near-peak/peak looks like. We’re going to see a lot of signals one way and the other the next 8 weeks. 

Way too early to get a sense of the predominant upper level pattern over the E CONUS and Atlantic, but I think it’d be tough for the dominant troughing we see in the NE to remains as it exists now through fall. 

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This feels a lot like the last two seasons.

There are still a number of counteracting factors and significant uncertainty over what the near-peak/peak looks like. We’re going to see a lot of signals one way and the other the next 8 weeks. 

Way too early to get a sense of the predominant upper level pattern over the E CONUS and Atlantic, but I think it’d be tough for the dominant troughing we see in the NE to remains as it exists now through fall. 

We had troughing last year as well. But didn't we see that break down roughly late Aug into Sept? Regardless, until we see a shift of that troughing it will be rough sailing for any tropical hopes for our region.

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23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

We had troughing last year as well. But didn't we see that break down roughly late Aug into Sept? Regardless, until we see a shift of that troughing it will be rough sailing for any tropical hopes for our region.

Yeah, that’s how I remember it. I think the trough broke down earlier in the month but was more or less there in the western Atlantic during the peak...especially for Florence...which would have been a guaranteed fish storm if not for the blocking. Even the guidance showed a recurve there. 

Conditions overall in the MDR were awful. Florence somehow made it, probably because it was north of the SAL/Shear kill zone lol.

Alberto, Gordon, and Michael were homebrew. 

My guess is we’re looking at something similar this year if the niño persists, but odds have dropped to basically 50/50 recently.

Thing is, if you want some EC action north of say North Carolina, you need some sort of troughing if the system isn’t riding a ridge in the Gulf of Mexico. Enough for a capture not a kick. Hard to do in any season. 

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Just reading the Michael NHC report and wow, it was a pretty significant event in SE VA. Multiple big gusts in some of the locations and gusts above hurricane force at the NOS sites.

Deaths due to freshwater flooding as well...

All this in addition to the big severe day VA saw in the wake of Florence.

Just adjusting to life without my favorite sports...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf

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