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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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Just for shi*s and giggles. GFS op throws us a unicorn storm. Have a 995 Cane off the coast of Florida. The setup/environment would suggest continued strengthening after the 384 hr as well as being a threat to a good portion of the eastern seaboard. Not sure I really buy how we see this evolve though. Initial energy spins up in the northern Caribbean region 9/10 days prior, rides up the eastern coast, ejects OTS, then moves south splitting ridging in the central/eastern Atlantic on its journey back towards the east coast.

Unicornstorm.gif.a6cb5f645e46efa6d8dbec9d896d556c.gif

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49 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

We have a possibility showing up at the end of the 12z GFS run. Tracking season has begun. (Probably be gone at 18z).

Probably. The op runs counter to the GEFS. Op run builds heights and ridging up the east coast vs. the GEFS which has a trough.

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Looks as if the EPAC is getting active. 2 Canes showing up on the GFS at this time in the short range with other disturbances with potential peppered throughout its run. The origins of these storms seems farther south then what I would expect is typical (Below 10 degrees latitude off the Nicaraguan coast). But I don't follow the EPAC tropical at all so I could very well be wrong. Maybe our resident tropical expert ( @WxWatcher007 ) would like to chime in? Setup is conducive for possible threats to Hawaii as a High is setup to the north funneling the systems towards the islands.

EPACCanes.gif.72b9da28a801ebad07a3b6d71ea1beaa.gif

 

Typically Canes weaken substantially before any impact with Hawaii because they encounter colder waters as they approach. But we are seeing warmer SST anomalies surrounding the islands so that may not be as much of a factor. GFS does weaken both systems substantially by the time they reach the vicinity of Hawaii and send them just south of the islands. 

sst.gif.9b096d58afa84d5b9c9d312561a139dd.gif

 

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I don’t really follow tropical in the PAC. It looks like the second system is a greater threat to Hawaii but a Hawaii landfall is extraordinarily hard to get. 

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Meanwhile, there are still signals of Atlantic development but it’s a more muted signal today. Just have to wait and see what happens. 

Much of yesterday’s convection from 95L has faded, but there is pretty decent spin. 

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t really follow tropical in the PAC. It looks like the second system is a greater threat to Hawaii but a Hawaii landfall is extraordinarily hard to get. 

Getting a Hurricane to landfall in Hawaii is extremely difficult but I am not so sure about the remnants of Hurricanes and/or weaker tropical systems. Think that may be a little more frequent. Didn't they have severe flooding a couple/few years ago from a system?

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Olivia last year was the first named storm (a weak TS at the time) to make landfall in Hawaii.  But they get brushed by the storms pretty regularly, though the mountains are attributed to changing the course of storms and keeping the islands in the clear.

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36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not much Atlantic sizzle on the 12z suite so far. Boring lol.

The new and improved GFS had a snowstorm though. :D

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

The new and improved GFS had a snowstorm though. :D

We can’t even get fantasy canes from the Canadian anymore. It’s heartbreaking. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Later frames of the Euro and Ukie produced so that’s something :weenie: 

The Legacy GFS has something east of FL at the end of the run.

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5 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Olivia last year was the first named storm (a weak TS at the time) to make landfall in Hawaii.  But they get brushed by the storms pretty regularly, though the mountains are attributed to changing the course of storms and keeping the islands in the clear.

Pretty good article when it comes to Hawaii and tropical systems.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-08-03-hawaii-hurricane-tropical-typical-track-history

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2 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

The Legacy GFS has something east of FL at the end of the run.

Delivers the goods again at the end of the 18z run. Why did we upgrade again? :( 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

too bad its recurve city

True, but in terms of a more significant system maybe something of interest to monitor. 

Also, to those who search out higher swells for surfing this may generate some action for the East Coast down the road. 

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Odds usually favor an African wave failing to develop. They also usually favor a developed wave recurving harmlessly. 

But because things change so much so often between the initial forecasts for a tropical system and the final result, we casually watch.

I think both 95L and future 96L have a chance to develop. Both have to deal with hostile environments, but we are getting to the point in the season where you don't necessarily need to get everything to align to get some marginal development in the basin.

For 95L, there needs to be minimal land interaction and some sustained convection. For future 96L, it needs to find a way to minimize dry air intrusion. 

Let's get development before analyzing track possibilities, but I don't see an upper level pattern right now that stands out as an EC strike pattern. Certainly nothing like we saw at times last year. 

That CCKW has been critical to the "activity" we see now. If it returns in the next 30-45 days that's right at the peak--but I'm getting ahead of myself.  

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5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Odds usually favor an African wave failing to develop. They also usually favor a developed wave recurving harmlessly. 

But because things change so much so often between the initial forecasts for a tropical system and the final result, we casually watch.

I think both 95L and future 96L have a chance to develop. Both have to deal with hostile environments, but we are getting to the point in the season where you don't necessarily need to get everything to align to get some marginal development in the basin.

For 95L, there needs to be minimal land interaction and some sustained convection. For future 96L, it needs to find a way to minimize dry air intrusion. 

Let's get development before analyzing track possibilities, but I don't see an upper level pattern right now that stands out as an EC strike pattern. Certainly nothing like we saw at times last year. 

That CCKW has been critical to the "activity" we see now. If it returns in the next 30-45 days that's right at the peak--but I'm getting ahead of myself.  

All about timing some years. Actually most years when you get above the OBX latitude. Last year was predominately hostile for east coast strikes and yet we had short periods that we saw the east coast troughing and the strong westerly flow break down and be replaced by ridging building in.  And at this point that looks as if that is the type of tropical season we will be dealing with where nothing comes easy for a somewhat meaningful impact for our region.

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7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Let's get development before analyzing track possibilities, but I don't see an upper level pattern right now that stands out as an EC strike pattern. Certainly nothing like we saw at times last year. 

Maybe we get that period near late September or October even.  Hard to get a feel for what is going to set up.

Some AO / MJO analogs point out that we could get very warm after mid  August into September and some models indicate a warm fall.  

Then again the Euro from a few days ago indicates a quiet times.   Lastly, I agree with showme, it really does center around timing.  

The story so far this summer has been the warm season blocking and the Europe heat records. We will look back in a few months to see whether 

the tropics made an impact. 

 

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Looking over things and the Atlantic still looks hostile for the foreseeable future but... I do like some of the tendencies I am seeing on the GEFS over the last few days that are improving the odds for potential east coast impact/landfall IF we do in fact see a tropical system. 

Going to throw up a some maps to illustrate what we are seeing with run over run adjustments to the general long wave pattern the GEFS seems to be migrating to. These changes are showing up roughly day 10 or so moving into the end of the extended. The time stamp and/or run are irrelevant as I just want to give a generally idea of what I am seeing the GEFS move towards despite run to run wobbles.

Below is the general pattern that the GEFS was initially keying on. What we have is the trough setting up just to our west of which the blue anomalies illustrate quite well. In the eastern/central Atlantic we are seeing higher heights. This is basically setting up a strong westerly flow for a good portion of the east. 

500mb12z28th.gif.4ac6d192927358813edcacb2eae17bc3.gif

 

This is the look that the GEFS seems to moving towards. We are now seeing the trough set up to our east. We are also seeing higher heights build to our south. These differences may seem somewhat trivial but the potential impact is fairly significant to potential east coast land falling canes in regards to the strong westerly flow we have been seeing at mid-latitudes.

500mb00z30th.gif.90c2561108579f565f9078d9943626b5.gif

 

 

Here we have the wind shear anomalies map for the first map presented (12Z July 28th). Notice the strong SW flow running up the east coast. This is due to the Higher heights we are seeing in the Atlantic and the trough that is just to our west. This is a look that says 'No Hurricanes allowed' for the East Coast except for possibly the deep SE. If you notice we also have a flow from our west that is associated with the trough that is intersecting the strong SW flow. This westerly flow drops fairly far south in the east due to the base of the trough being located there. Keep this in mind for later.

windshear12zjuly28th.gif.f818a6d80e282a913ad10b7a414aa8ab.gif

 

This is the wind shear map for the second map presented (00Z July 30th). Notice that with the shifting of the trough easterly that we are also seeing a corresponding shift of the strong SW flow along with it to our NE and off the coast. This shift is now opening the door for possible impacts farther north up the coast. The inhibiting factor no longer is the SW flow but instead becomes the westerly flow associated with the trough and how deeply it drops south through the region. This is where my previous mention of being on the base of the trough comes into play.  Typically the farthest extent southward of the westerly flow will be located within the base of the trough. But now that we see the trough to our east our region is now located on the backside. And with that we see a shifting of the height lines northward as well as a corresponding shift northward of the westerly flow. 

windshear00zjuly30th.gif.72f2ac4ee863c4af7734303e648064db.gif

 

Now the above examples of the flow may be somewhat subtle for some so here are some clear cut examples. Below is the 4-8 day mean shear for the latest run. The SW flow running up the coast is overwhelming. Just downright ugly for tropical in our region.

windshearday4-8.gif.31a2423bd68311c2ca09feef9e15d674.gif

 

Now we see day 12-16 on the latest run. Notice the shifting of the SW flow has moved NEward and we are now coming under the influence of the westerly flow associated with the trough.

windshearday12-16.gif.9b2e5da6d02ad0ab0a4b5983d5569657.gif

 

Now the above is still not good for our chances at our latitude as we are still under the influence of the strong westerly flow. BUT... they are a major improvement from what we were seeing before. At this point what we are seeing probably does open up the southern coast, possibly up to OBX though that is probably pushing it, but as far as our region? No, we still need some work putting us into play. What we are probably looking for is the trough to set up even farther east. Not as much of a drop southward of that trough. And even stronger heights building to our south.

But all we can ask for at this time is Baby steps away from that horrible look we have been seeing and that looks like what the GEFS is trying to do at this time.

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17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking over things and the Atlantic still looks hostile for the foreseeable future but... I do like some of the tendencies I am seeing on the GEFS over the last few days that are improving the odds for potential east coast impact/landfall IF we do in fact see a tropical system. 

This seems to echo the thoughts of DT in a way. He states the very deep East Coast trough protects the EC during the first half of August,  but seems to allude to that changing later in time.  I wonder the impact of upstream blocking on the jet and the trough. DT also mentions the trough is a stable feature and he sees no immediate long duration heats waves the first half of August.  

 

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4 hours ago, frd said:

This seems to echo the thoughts of DT in a way. He states the very deep East Coast trough protects the EC during the first half of August,  but seems to allude to that changing later in time.  I wonder the impact of upstream blocking on the jet and the trough. DT also mentions the trough is a stable feature and he sees no immediate long duration heats waves the first half of August.  

 

Pretty much my thoughts as well. 2'nd half of August is another story though if we see the trough migrate eastward as currently depicted on the GEFS. If that happens the SE will most likely see some sustained heat and we wouldn't be out of the woods either. All it would take is something to trigger the heights that will develop in the deep south to build northward. As an example, think Hurricane Barry. It was pretty much the catalyst to our seeing heights build up the eastern seaboard and the 5/6 day heat wave that came with it. 

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Fun little 12z suite so far. 95L pops into a weak low along the EC on the retired GFS. Fantasy cane on the new GFS much closer to the coast. 

One can dream :whistle:

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7qe726H.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.
This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next several days, producing locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas.
Conditions could become marginally conducive for development late
this week when the disturbance moves near Florida and the
northwestern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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