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WxWatcher007

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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With 58 days until the start of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, it's time to fire up my other Mid-Atlantic legacy thread. CSU is releasing their forecast as I type at the National Tropical Weather Conference. As you can see, we're slightly below normal with hurricanes and major hurricanes, and below normal with ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) with El Nino expected to last through much of the season. It is really interesting to note that their 2019 statistical/dynamical model blend has an above average season while the 2019 statistical model has a decidedly below normal season prediction. 

The US has seen a very active stretch, with multiple historic landfalling events in recent years. For this region, although last season didn't bring particularly significant impacts to DC, both Michael and Florence were a significant event for parts of the subforum--with Florence bringing a severe weather event in Virginia, and Michael bringing a significant wind event for southern and eastern Virginia as it transitioned to a powerful post tropical cyclone. Best analog years for seasonal activity: '69, '87, '91, '02, '09. 1969 is the only active year of that group. 

The next CSU update is on June 4th. 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2019/04/2019-04.pdf

ttYQsW2.jpg

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I am ready for this.  It hope we get our hurricane this year!

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On 4/6/2019 at 9:02 AM, PDIII said:

I am ready for this.  It hope we get our hurricane this year!

Cat 4 into Point Lookout that stalls or bust.

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

No stall - a turn up/just west of the Potomac. With strong forward motion to lessen weakeninig. 

AND it has to be at least a Super Typhoon Hayian strength category 5.

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2 hours ago, George BM said:

AND it has to be at least a Super Typhoon Hayian strength category 5.

You guys are still trying to kill me. I'll be watching you from the grave. :lol:

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10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

 

I was just about to post!

One month away from hurricane season. 

Obviously conjecture, but if we get a pattern break and see a return to western Atlantic ridging being dominant, it could set us up for some threats. It's happened the last few seasons. 

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17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I was just about to post!

One month away from hurricane season. 

Obviously conjecture, but if we get a pattern break and see a return to western Atlantic ridging being dominant, it could set us up for some threats. It's happened the last few seasons. 

The SSTs over the Western Atlantic may support this, western Atlantic ridging being dominant , in time.  Already above normal,  and in time the area may expand and grow even warmer relative to normal IMHO. 

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On 5/1/2019 at 9:39 AM, smokeybandit said:

 

 

Hello there ....

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

@WxWatcher007

Where are the Canes? What a lame season. I call Fail now. :cliff:

I think I saw that ACE is expected lower this season per Ryan Maue 

 

 

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Hmm, 

May have been a one cycle error, but it does not instill confidence that have worked the bugs out. Too much cold, leading to too much snow, and then this with a tendency to show these bogus canes. 

 

 

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Often what happens is the category 5 long-trackers either recurve and feel the weakness in the jet stream (Westerlies) or become so large that they upwell the ocean heat content along and ahead of the path of the Tropical Cyclone. Layman's explanation of why this relationship exists.

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Still a few weeks out but I’m starting to like the chances of some development in the very late May/early June timeframe down in the usual zone for CAGs. Eastern PAC looks like it could be prime for some action at the very least but we don’t care about them here lol. 

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7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still a few weeks out but I’m starting to like the chances of some development in the very late May/early June timeframe down in the usual zone for CAGs. Eastern PAC looks like it could be prime for some action at the very least but we don’t care about them here lol. 

ZZZZZZZZ........ZZZ...Z....... Huh, time to wake up????? Nah, my alarms set for late June.......ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ..........

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1893 hurricane season.

648752519_1893hurricaneseason.thumb.PNG.1f55c942645dd1ad9831336b1eac4832.PNG

Alright Mommy Nature you know the drill... make this happen... or make it even better than this... but at least this please... I said "please".

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Cool comparison of Atlantic SSTs.

Notice the mini warm blob off the East Coast  

Wonder how the SW Atlantic will look in 30 days after the SE heat wave that is coming up. 

 

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Good to see some early activity in here. Thanks for your posts, @frd.

17 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

ZZZZZZZZ........ZZZ...Z....... Huh, time to wake up????? Nah, my alarms set for late June.......ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ..........

If you only care about MA impacts, set your alarms for September lol.

15 hours ago, George BM said:

1893 hurricane season.

648752519_1893hurricaneseason.thumb.PNG.1f55c942645dd1ad9831336b1eac4832.PNG

Alright Mommy Nature you know the drill... make this happen... or make it even better than this... but at least this please... I said "please".

Oh the chase opportunities! 

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and elongated area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms has developed well to the east of the Bahamas.
An area of low pressure is expected to form within this area of
disturbed weather several hundred miles south or southwest of
Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the
early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or
northeastward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 2 AM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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For what it's worth the 00Z FV3 throws some tropical loving Florida's way. Area of disturbed weather around the Yucatan day 9'ish works its way up through the Caribbean and eventually has a minimal tropical system impacting the southern tip of Florida at the end of its run (Day 16).  If correct it would probably be the first named system for the Atlantic (Andrea) with pressures of 993 mb and roughly 45 mph sustained winds at landfall.

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Kickoff could be near.

 
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight and this morning
in association with a trough of low pressure located about midway
between the Bahamas and Bermuda.  A low pressure system is expected
to form within this area of disturbed weather later today, and this
system could become a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone by
tonight or Tuesday while it moves northward or northeastward.  By
Wednesday, however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for further development, and the system should be absorbed by a cold
front.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.  Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.  The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

 

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Kickoff could be near.

 
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight and this morning
in association with a trough of low pressure located about midway
between the Bahamas and Bermuda.  A low pressure system is expected
to form within this area of disturbed weather later today, and this
system could become a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone by
tonight or Tuesday while it moves northward or northeastward.  By
Wednesday, however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for further development, and the system should be absorbed by a cold
front.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.  Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.  The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

 

Haven't really been high on this doing much of anything. But you never know, could be our first named system of the year though very short lived. Think the chances are better for day 6/7 around Bermuda for our first named storm though if I were to bet I would probably go with the Yucatan over to the Caribbean at 10+ days. Think that might be setting up decent in the extended. 

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