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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have no idea if ur kidding here or not... but ...no just in case

that's not teasing - it's "how you get it done" - it's a good example -

I said nothing about whether that happens or not.   just sayn' 

kidding of course, come on, you must know me better by now.  I'm not that much of a weenie.. 

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4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

 

Probably 227.4 sustained last report before the NULL-space outage abruptly silenced in 

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

kidding of course, come on, you must know me better by now.  I'm not that much of a weenie.. 

haha... I know. 

But man...  what I'd give to see that... and dread seeing that at the same time.  

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably 227.4 sustained last report before the NULL-space outage abruptly silenced in 

Chunks of granite just flying off the mountainside and pancaking houses in N Conway, like giants playing a game of marbles. Epic.

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Dorian racking up the ACE for the Atlantic and still has a way to go. Should join the pretty exclusive list of Hurricanes producing more then 40 ACE. 

 

Year Storm# Name Dates TC Active Max Wind (kts) MSLP (mb) Named Storm Days Hurricane Days Major Hurricane Days Accumulated Cyclone Energy
2019 1 ANDREA 5/20-5/21 35 1006 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.4
2019 2 BARRY 7/11-7/14 65 993 3.50 0.25 0.00 3.3
2019 3 CHANTAL 8/21-8/21 35 1009 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.5
2019 4 DORIAN 8/24-9/3 160 910 10.00 6.00 4.00 35.0
2019 5 ERIN 8/28-8/28 35 1005 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.4

 

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

yeah that's not eleanor. turtlehurricane was a weenie on eastern for years. he got his degree though. haven't seen him in years, but i mostly stay here.

Better off, I stay put, I read enough garbage on a daily basis.

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55 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

I just got my first "slap" ever in Dorian thread.
Elinor, not that she needs defending was disparaged big time. I was just wanting to set the record.
What has become of the forum?
Kind of pissed me off...no matter...
Anyway, it's a beautiful day here in between the feeder bands that have now descended upon my area. Each one more intense then the previous. One is about to spin through in a few minutes. It ain't over in fact only just begun. Feeling grateful for what could have been to now what I think will be.  

Thats not Elinor. Its Zach...he was a bit of teen genius from the old board that has seemed to go the way of weirdness ala Chuck. Elinor is Turtle not Turtle Hurricane. 

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19 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Aerial footage coming out of Abaco now is pretty unreal.

 

That is gut wrenching. How the heck do you survive that? ughhh :( 

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I saw some eyewitness video of storm surge at least 25ft...im not sure of the elevation profile of Abaco but that would probably put most of the island under water 

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I hope those warming cloud tops around the center of Dorian are indicating the eye is trying to re-organize. Looks like cloud tops are cooling too on the SE side of the eye and with bands wrapping around SW side. 

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There was a post on twitter which showed the area of the school Josh was in...if that indeed is the area...idk. Very sick feeling in my stomach right now. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Turtle's name is also spelled Eleanor :)  

It's been years Paul...my bad all around... I done did defend a faux member, no matter. Nobody should be called-out like that or what transpired. 
Power is coming and going. It's fragile to begin with being in the forest.
Been through worse in a good N'oreaster.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Did Josh have a satellite phone or something?

Have no idea. It's unlike him to go this long with-out some kind of outside contact. Last posting in the Dorian thread stated his last known location was searched. Still MIA

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Did Josh have a satellite phone or something?

According to James Reynolds he probably didn't. If I recall correctly they have been on some chases together in the WPAC so it's about as a reliable source we can get at this point.

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

That is gut wrenching. How the heck do you survive that? ughhh :( 

A shanty town is definitely a bad place to be for a storm like that.

I was able to figure out where the first 40 secs of the flight was from some landmarks and they show damage at "The Mudd"

 

Here's a pic of what I guess is are some typical homes in that area.  Not a big surprise they failed entirely.

2019-09-03_191156.jpg

mudd.jpg

 

The more modern looking buildings in the video looked very survivable for the most part.  Hopefully people were able to get out of the shanty town but I assume there were casualties there.

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Ouch.  Those look like stick built homes.

2019-09-03_192127.jpg

Found the spot in Spring City.

2019-09-03_192612.jpg

 

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I thought 18z euro was interesting for SE areas and the Cape. Seems like most models have TS conditions there for a time, at least gusts into the TS realm.

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