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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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The GFS has a tendency to sweep these TCs away too quickly and now we are seeing new solutions on the table. Still not very favorable for getting the Bahamas disturbance into the NE but an indication of the uncertainty ahead. However I suspect if the intensity modeling was correct it may have followed the Euro.

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25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is there a specific place out there where you can see the upper level pattern in the days before historic landfalls? I should know this but I don’t.

Could be, but I'm more familiar with them from looking at post mortem papers about storms like Hazel and '38.

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I've see so many of those analysis and reanalysis and dissections .... know what it really comes down to? 

geometry.   That's all

If there is a positive object NE/E of New England ...and a negative object W .... and a TC is approaching the outer Bahamas ...that's A ... If you don't got A ... go do something else... 

If you do see A ( modeled and so forth...)  the rest of the story is particular vectors between those two basic, governing constructs...  By typology to that circumstance, you will observe obvious deep layer wind components ( ..ie, 'steering' ) moving concerted S to N ... with variations therein determining more precisely where any TC that gets "sucked in" ultimately ends up. 

Sandy was too much positive object and too much negative object ... causing a violent and highly anomalous "left hook" and acceleration ... The easterly anomaly into that region of the M/A during that trajectory pathway was comparable to the normal westerly zonal wind ... going the wrong way ;)

Typically...there is always some negative west - positive east arrangement of larger scaled features ...whenever there is a TC "recurving" between Bermuda and the East Coast of the U.S.... There has to be... that set up is the only way ( physically ) to scaffold a steering field/forcing .... The question simply is... magnitude of each ... and how those geometrically enhance more or less idealized trajectories ... at Long Island versus more skewed and a miss.    

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4 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

people didn’t think a hurricane was coming in 1938 either......

as I said eerily similar 

If you mean in the sense that they both rotate ?   .... sure... 

Problem is....  'eerily similar' says nothing - you have to describe 'why' at least a little, otherwise you're just being dramatic ...and it comes off as bush rabble. 

As it stands now, the governing circulation bears very UNremarkable resemblance -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If you mean in the sense that they both rotate ?   .... sure... 

Problem is....  'eerily similar' says nothing - you have to describe 'why' at least a little, otherwise you're just being dramatic ...and it comes of a bush rabble .  

As it stands now, the governing circulation bears very UNremarkable resemblance -

Come on John, we can be more sincere than that.  We know what he means.  This is after all a tropical weather subtopic.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If you mean in the sense that they both rotate ?   .... sure... 

Problem is....  'eerily similar' says nothing - you have to describe 'why' at least a little, otherwise you're just being dramatic ...and it comes off as bush rabble. 

As it stands now, the governing circulation bears very UNremarkable resemblance -

If you want to be complacent and not see the warning signs that’s on you.  I’m getting my family prepared.

Sandy was really rough on us and just after the storm we had 6-8 inches of snow.  It was like Armageddon 

 

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14 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

If you want to be complacent and not see the warning signs that’s on you.  I’m getting my family prepared.

Sandy was really rough on us and just after the storm we had 6-8 inches of snow.  It was like Armageddon 

 

It’s not similar. I shouldn’t have to go into details why. 

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1 hour ago, SandySurvivor said:

i was sniffing this one out before the models were.

i live on the coast and I’m getting supplies.  if it takes the least likely path and missed us I at least have rations for 99l after this 

If you live on the coast then you should ALREADY have supplies because there is always a chance!....But,  yes it is always good to have an emergency kit ready.

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SandySurvivor -

If you live on the coast anywhere, the Mid Atlantic included you should always be prepared, period....

That said, at this time this is no threat to you.  NO it is not. There are no Meteorological components about this that creates even a vague analog to 1938... much less anything ominous.  Nothing.  

This statement I am making has nothing to do with complacency.  Complacency is when one ignores signs - hint:  THERE ARE NONE. 

It's scientific knowledge and education, and wisdom of what we are looking at, all available information included...  that tells us there are no signs.  Now, if you have some particular Meteorological insight that says otherwise...  by all means, enlighten us.  Otherwise, this is not eerily similar to anything other than perfect late season beach weather. 

That can change - but there is nothing complacent in recognizing that this is not threat AT THIS TIME.

Am I gettin' thru.  Living on the coast and have an elevated/static level of preparedness is just intelligent living with respect to ones environs - but you don't need to conflate that with this.. 

 

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16 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Hubris can lead you into dire situations including not being prepared and driving a 8 billion population into a hothouse extinction. Nothing is set in stone in regards to this storm. People thought we would be flying around in cars at this point back in the 60s and 70s.

I'm not even sure which feature he's worried about?

The one invest near Florida is hot, but there is no way in Hades that thing is eerily similar to 1938.   There's another one in the CV transit region way out east of the Islands there that's now warm...  Maybe that one ... in a week's worth of pattern modulation might ( coin flip ) take on some kind of analog... But again... the at this time predicate seems to be getting ignored in lieu of some sort of wanton melodrama or histrionics -

Coastal denizens need to be prepared at all times anyway...

The more I think about this ... I think what he's after is less than analytic in general,...and more about "fuzzy feellings on the back of one's neck"  ...  and the ole, " I got this feelin' this year could still be bad" - okay...  I can dig it :)  

 

 

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