Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

On 8/9/2019 at 8:47 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

In New England, probably. 

I don’t get this it doesn’t happen in New England mantra on this forum. Everyone acts like once in 100 years is the New England norm. It’s really not though we are in a hurricane drought that will end at some point. 30 years without a hurricane is a long time. Please stop acting like we don’t get hurricanes because it will happen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Diggiebot said:

I don’t get this it doesn’t happen in New England mantra on this forum. Everyone acts like once in 100 years is the New England norm. It’s really not though we are in a hurricane drought that will end at some point. 30 years without a hurricane is a long time. Please stop acting like we don’t get hurricanes because it will happen. 

I was kidding, but going nearly 30 years without a hurricane landfall kind of speaks for itself.

A hurricane is always a low probability deal up here, more than just about any other stretch of the US coastline. Not so much for other impactful forms of tropical but that’s infrequent enough as well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I was kidding, but going nearly 30 years without a hurricane landfall kind of speaks for itself.

A hurricane is always a low probability deal up here, more than just about any other stretch of the US coastline. Not so much for other impactful forms of tropical but that’s infrequent enough as well. 

The really high impact storms tend to be few and far between, even on the Cape and islands. For much of the 19th and early 20th century, most people were probably not even aware that they were getting hit by the remnants of a tropical system. It had been such a long time since a major strike that people largely wrote off the threat of hurricanes by the 1930s. It will be interesting to find out how woefully unprepared we are and how badly underfunded our utilities' storm sinking funds are when the next cat 2 or 3 hits us squarely on the chin. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hoth said:

The really high impact storms tend to be few and far between, even on the Cape and islands. For much of the 19th and early 20th century, most people were probably not even aware that they were getting hit by the remnants of a tropical system. It had been such a long time since a major strike that people largely wrote off the threat of hurricanes by the 1930s. It will be interesting to find out how woefully unprepared we are and how badly underfunded our utilities' storm sinking funds are when the next cat 2 or 3 hits us squarely on the chin, or... there is a jolt, geological glacial displacement event over Greenland one fateful afternoon ... probably in the ides of October just when it's trying to re solidify in the upper mass ... due to destablizing erosion factoring in the basal flow regions... and the entire cap up and defies Science Fiction author's best imaginative efforts ... Blithely, it slides off into the Atlantic with unstoppable slow motion cinema ... a two to four hour movie that ends with finally exposing just how badly underfunded our moral bank accounts have always been, where consequentially... peering over a stranger-than-fiction setting where abruptly, every city in the world within 20 feet of sea level... ceases by inundation.   

... yeah...it's definitely interesting...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Hoth said:

What he said.

Douches roll their eyes...

That should be the name of that novel.  Or the turn of phrase etched into the headstone of Humanity as it rises over the smoldering aftermath like an ignored passage out of Percy Shelley.

Being dramatically licensed there ...sure... but, little do common enthusiast-spheres know ... there has been an uptick in seismology at stations in the interior of the ice cap in recent decades. Cryoseisms are not uncommon, even in stable eras.  Increases is /were always expected .. due to warm intrusion into the interior of the ice cap... and on and so forth.  So now are empirically demonstrated.  But, where does the math and science of sudden climate-change -enforced ice retreat say that will take place in a kindly, mass-distributed friendly morphology - where's that assumption coming from!

Some of these in the increasing frequency era, have been startlingly intense, too.  One such even neared 4 ( I think it was..) on the RS.  The region of the ice cap where these stations reporting are situated ... were not merely experiencing interstitial integrity perturbations... They up and slid many feet laterally...

One has to imagine the scene.  You are surrounding by two distinguishing environmental features ... with virtually no variance other than those two: glare ice and blue-gray-whale skies ... When you then slide, en masse, twenty ... thirty feet, you don't see that change.  Why? There are no 'passing features ' to differentiate that movement.  So at first, what were mistaken as mere ice tremors ... it would be like GPS tapped scientists on the shoulder "... umm.. you're not where you're supposed to be." 

So, catastrophic ice slide events... To say this can't happen?  Troglodyte impulsive absurdity, that's what that is... Gravity is a constant... Ice integrity/honey-combing on a mega scale, working together with that ...  heh, it's complicated at best trying to assess how a system reacts to an undecillium metric tonnes of destabilized mass over land that's just itching to rebound. But the whole gentle mass-phase exchange from ice to liquid ( trace to evaporation ) model, ... spanning enough time for Bambi governmental naivete to respond and adapt?   Okay ... that might happen too.  Missoula Floods leap to mind.. 

You know what it all strikes me as....  I remember this conversation with a doctorate of Meteorology in college... back when the dinosaurs roamed. The contents of which may prove as much prophetic as it they were merely conjecture at the time. Most of Humanity's advancements that "synergistically" fed-back favorably into our rise out of the primordial setting ...that all happened, despite all protestations and hand waving... during relative climate quiescence?  The latter probably more allowing the former to take place than we are collectively ever considering ...much less aware.  Our species particular two pillars, which allowed us to then avail of that favorable environment, was/is a,  our cooperation and working together ( strength in numbers ...) and b ... perhaps most importantly of all, we have a unique adaptability about us... Most other mammals of this world, within reasonable comparative per capita biomass ... , can't do that.  They don't adapt as quickly - when their ecology breaks down at a faster rate than evolutionary process can adjust... they tend to extinguish.  Whether we are aware of the following or not... we are actually testing our own human design and advantage - unwittingly as such... Because we may just succeed at destabilizing the ecology so far, one that we arrogantly forget we actually still depend upon, to the point where it will take something almost super natural to overcome and adapt. 

Maybe that's the ultimate evolutionary challenge.  

In the meantime, good luck with thinking that a catastrophic Greenland icecap failure ... whether in a single event, or a cocktail of cleave and rumblers spanning 20 or 30 years ( still virtually instantaneous compared to geologic time scales... ) can't happen.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was shocked to see NOAA increase their numbers last week. I'll be the first to admit that my knowledge regarding tropical activity is extremely low, but some of the reasoning I've been seeing out there from others is a bit head scratching. The focus primarily seems to be on 

1) SST's in the Atlantic

2) EL Nino being officially dead (in terms of the definition used to define an event)

woah...woah...woah...woah

There is a helluva lot more which goes into potential tropical activity than SST's and ENSO. SST's aren't a driver in tropical activity, SST's promote an ingredient needed for strengthening. Very similar to that of CAPE and t'storms...CAPE is not a driver in convection. 

Just b/c EL Nino is not officially defined anymore doesn't mean the atmosphere is just going to automatically adjust. Anyways, the entire PAC is above-average (except for the cold tongue punching through 1.2. The atmosphere can still very much act EL Nino-ish. 

Looking at the ATL...the ATL has been completely dominated by SAL and there aren't really many signs this will reduce anytime soon. Even if the degree of SAL decreased what's out there just isn't going to dissipate overnight. There have also been some big areas of wind shear which just isn't going to relax b/c we say EL Nino is dead. 

If we see tropical activity is will likely be tied to any Kelvin wave activity which can propagate into the Atlantic. 

Perhaps we'll see things in the Atlantic become more favorable overtime but I would be shocked is this season ended up above-average. Obviously things can heat up very quickly and we can see a later season but I think we would have to see drastic changes and those type of changes just aren't going to happen overnight and I'm sure there is going to be a pretty big lag in the change response. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I was shocked to see NOAA increase their numbers last week. You mean... they increased their seasonal TC count/totals... ?

1) SST's in the Atlantic  2) EL Nino being officially dead (in terms of the definition used to define an event)  Do you have a link to their updates ?  I'm interesting in reading more specifically what their reasoning is - though I suppose I could go find it...  It may be more operational in nature  - as in... we are seeing a tendency in the various ensembles for more AAM flat appeal around the hemisphere... This could translate into lowering general shear and increasing favorable trade wind orientations and so forth in the typical genesis regions. But speculating..

Just b/c EL Nino is not officially defined anymore doesn't mean the atmosphere is just going to automatically adjust.  ... I don't believe it was "turned on" in the sense of an inhibitor...  Yeah, the ENSO weekly publication/PDF claims that the circulation of the Hemisphere is '..consistent with El Nino' response... but frankly? I'm not seeing much of that...  I think the propensity of high latitude blocking ..not sure how they claim that in the summer with weak El Nino when gradient is weak and there's no triggers...  They don't delve deeper - they just say consistent... Okay... There has been a tendency for amplified PNAP structures ( more so than typical for summer) but my thinking is that is causally linked elsewhere..  Without sharing a cup of coffee with their prognosticators, ..I don't mean to impugn their efforts either. 

 

Looking at the ATL...the ATL has been completely dominated by SAL and there aren't really many signs this will reduce anytime soon. I've seen worse... I've seen the inundation spread almost to Florida ...and engulf large areas of the deeper monsoonal band too ...clear to almost 15 N. Just sayin' - although presently... satellite imagery confirms there is a particularly dense plume emerging off the continent now...

If we see tropical activity is will likely be tied to any Kelvin wave activity which can propagate into the Atlantic.  Yeah like we said...it may be a timing/operational anticipation... A sudden onset of a favorable KW phenomenon/passage swath over the Basin could trigger a kind of explosion of activity... Something like that happened in 1995 I believe.. We were seasonally on target or even behind in early to mid July ...then all hell broke loose in August and we went historic... Not saying that's our destiny this season.. .but, perhaps we can move a favorable circulation type into the Basin and have it kind of stall there...  a two to three week deal where every cumulus cloud strives for an eye heh.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Non existent for SNE this year. Like most years. Doesn’t look like a pattern conducive for a SNE hit or even glance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Douches roll their eyes...

That should be the name of that novel.  Or the turn of phrase etched into the headstone of Humanity as it rises over the smoldering aftermath like an ignored passage out of Percy Shelley.

Being dramatically licensed there ...sure... but, little do common enthusiast-spheres know ... there has been an uptick in seismology at stations in the interior of the ice cap in recent decades. Cryoseisms are not uncommon, even in stable eras.  Increases is /were always expected .. due to warm intrusion into the interior of the ice cap... and on and so forth.  So now are empirically demonstrated.  But, where does the math and science of sudden climate-change -enforced ice retreat say that will take place in a kindly, mass-distributed friendly morphology - where's that assumption coming from!

Some of these in the increasing frequency era, have been startlingly intense, too.  One such even neared 4 ( I think it was..) on the RS.  The region of the ice cap where these stations reporting are situated ... were not merely experiencing interstitial integrity perturbations... They up and slid many feet laterally...

One has to imagine the scene.  You are surrounding by two distinguishing environmental features ... with virtually no variance other than those two: glare ice and blue-gray-whale skies ... When you then slide, en masse, twenty ... thirty feet, you don't see that change.  Why? There are no 'passing features ' to differentiate that movement.  So at first, what were mistaken as mere ice tremors ... it would be like GPS tapped scientists on the shoulder "... umm.. you're not where you're supposed to be." 

So, catastrophic ice slide events... To say this can't happen?  Troglodyte impulsive absurdity, that's what that is... Gravity is a constant... Ice integrity/honey-combing on a mega scale, working together with that ...  heh, it's complicated at best trying to assess how a system reacts to an undecillium metric tonnes of destabilized mass over land that's just itching to rebound. But the whole gentle mass-phase exchange from ice to liquid ( trace to evaporation ) model, ... spanning enough time for Bambi governmental naivete to respond and adapt?   Okay ... that might happen too.  Missoula Floods leap to mind.. 

You know what it all strikes me as....  I remember this conversation with a doctorate of Meteorology in college... back when the dinosaurs roamed. The contents of which may prove as much prophetic as it they were merely conjecture at the time. Most of Humanity's advancements that "syngenetically" fed-back favorably into our rise out of the primordial setting ...that all happened, despite all protestations and hand waving... during relative climate quiescence?  The latter probably more allowing the former to take place than we are collectively ever considering ...much less aware.  Our species particular two pillars, which allowed us to then avail of that favorable environment, was/is a,  our cooperation and working together ( strength in numbers ...) and b ... perhaps most importantly of all, we have a unique adaptability about us... Most other mammals of this world, within reasonable comparative per capita biomass ... , can't do that.  They don't adapt as quickly - when their ecology breaks down at a faster rate than evolutionary process can adjust... they tend to extinguish.  Whether we are aware of the following or not... we are actually testing our own human design and advantage - unwittingly as such... Because we may just succeed at destabilizing the ecology so far, one that we arrogantly forget we actually still depend upon, to the point where it will take something almost super natural to overcome and adapt. 

Maybe that's the ultimate evolutionary challenge.  

In the meantime, good luck with thinking that a catastrophic Greenland icecap failure ... whether in a single event, or a cocktail of cleave and rumblers spanning 20 or 30 years ( still virtually instantaneous compared to geologic time scales... ) can't happen.    

Re: humanity's rise during climate quiescence, apparently we're in a relatively quiet period as far as coronal mass ejections the last 10-15K years or so. I guess they somehow extrapolated from ice samples that Carrington event level CMEs (and even more powerful) were relatively common not that long ago. You want to talk about something that could impede human advancement, there you go. A lot of things had to go right to get us where we are now. A staggering number of things. And not much has to go wrong to send us right back where we came from. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I was shocked to see NOAA increase their numbers last week. I'll be the first to admit that my knowledge regarding tropical activity is extremely low, but some of the reasoning I've been seeing out there from others is a bit head scratching. The focus primarily seems to be on 

1) SST's in the Atlantic

2) EL Nino being officially dead (in terms of the definition used to define an event)

woah...woah...woah...woah

There is a helluva lot more which goes into potential tropical activity than SST's and ENSO. SST's aren't a driver in tropical activity, SST's promote an ingredient needed for strengthening. Very similar to that of CAPE and t'storms...CAPE is not a driver in convection. 

Just b/c EL Nino is not officially defined anymore doesn't mean the atmosphere is just going to automatically adjust. Anyways, the entire PAC is above-average (except for the cold tongue punching through 1.2. The atmosphere can still very much act EL Nino-ish. 

Looking at the ATL...the ATL has been completely dominated by SAL and there aren't really many signs this will reduce anytime soon. Even if the degree of SAL decreased what's out there just isn't going to dissipate overnight. There have also been some big areas of wind shear which just isn't going to relax b/c we say EL Nino is dead. 

If we see tropical activity is will likely be tied to any Kelvin wave activity which can propagate into the Atlantic. 

Perhaps we'll see things in the Atlantic become more favorable overtime but I would be shocked is this season ended up above-average. Obviously things can heat up very quickly and we can see a later season but I think we would have to see drastic changes and those type of changes just aren't going to happen overnight and I'm sure there is going to be a pretty big lag in the change response. 

Not sure if you saw this, but https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml.

I guess the first question is what we define as above normal. Is an individual looking at ACE? The number of named storms? Hurricanes? Majors? I suppose there's an actual definition of above normal but it's really subjective in terms of how people (especially the general public) look at tropical season as a whole. 

Michael Lowry has had some good stuff highlighting how things have progressed over the course the season. In parts of the basin we've seen slightly below normal wind shear, consistent with a warm neutral regime, but as you've highlighted before SAL overall has been dominant. Some of that has been consistent with what usually happens this time of year, but if you look at instability across the basin, it has been well below normal. That's going to take work to improve, particularly in the MDR. 

Much like last year, I think this is a "homebrew" season, where development is rather lackluster in the MDR, particularly the eastern portion where SAL and below average SSTs should continue to put a lid on potential there for a while.

However, like two years ago, I am becoming more bullish on an active peak, where the vigorous waves that we've seen so far so far this season continue and pop closer to Lesser Antilles, eastern Caribbean, and off the southeast coast where conditions are far more favorable with lower shear and more moisture. If waves were being suffocated when rolling off the African coast and being decapitated by high shear for I'd be all in on a below normal season. Could be wrong, but I don't see that during the peak of this season. 

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Non existent for SNE this year. Like most years. Doesn’t look like a pattern conducive for a SNE hit or even glance.

Nothing screams north of OBX threat to me but I suppose it only takes one well timed system and steering pattern. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Re: humanity's rise during climate quiescence, apparently we're in a relatively quiet period as far as coronal mass ejections the last 10-15K years or so. I guess they somehow extrapolated from ice samples that Carrington event level CMEs (and even more powerful) were relatively common not that long ago. You want to talk about something that could impede human advancement, there you go. A lot of things had to go right to get us where we are now. A staggering number of things. And not much has to go wrong to send us right back where we came from. 

Do you have any literature ... preferably links to accredited source work of veracious/reputable form ( to put it nicely...), those that might elucidate/expand more about the bold ( abv) ? 

I've heard of this longer scaled "hidden" curve elsewhere ... but that, including the [apparent] 11, 22 and 300 year resonant solar min and max temporal/causal hypothesis for climate modulation ...all of it, it's harder to just "google" than one would think it should be.  ... man. 

You know how that goes... heh... , go anywhere close to a search-engine that is accessible to the hoi polloi...and you get this tomb of links to doom's day prophets in a trailer park with a satellite dish and every penny ever possessed put into to a lap-top networked with a fully operational Web-server/os... Oh, they've poached various pieces of out-of-context this and that to cobble together support for the end of the world... replete with illustrations of solar storms so powerful ... flesh incinerates off skeletons right before they crumble to piles of bone where the marrow inside isn't even aware the governing body is dead... Ugh... there shit out there about neutron stars careening through the solar-system ... really?  And of course, asteroids boring tunnels clear through the lithosphere and several hundred miles of upper mantle...  I mean, yeah - the probability isn't 0... I guess...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure if you saw this, but https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml.

I guess the first question is what we define as above normal. Is an individual looking at ACE? The number of named storms? Hurricanes? Majors? I suppose there's an actual definition of above normal but it's really subjective in terms of how people (especially the general public) look at tropical season as a whole. 

Michael Lowry has had some good stuff highlighting how things have progressed over the course the season. In parts of the basin we've seen slightly below normal wind shear, consistent with a warm neutral regime, but as you've highlighted before SAL overall has been dominant. Some of that has been consistent with what usually happens this time of year, but if you look at instability across the basin, it has been well below normal. That's going to take work to improve, particularly in the MDR. 

Much like last year, I think this is a "homebrew" season, where development is rather lackluster in the MDR, particularly the eastern portion where SAL and below average SSTs should continue to put a lid on potential there for a while.

However, like two years ago, I am becoming more bullish on an active peak, where the vigorous waves that we've seen so far so far this season continue and pop closer to Lesser Antilles, eastern Caribbean, and off the southeast coast where conditions are far more favorable with lower shear and more moisture. If waves were being suffocated when rolling off the African coast and being decapitated by high shear for I'd be all in on a below normal season. Could be wrong, but I don't see that during the peak of this season. 

 

Nothing screams north of OBX threat to me but I suppose it only takes one well timed system and steering pattern. 

Yeah I'm sure you are in part also noticing that though struggled, what development there has been has been home grown - so to speak.

I'm not so sure about the SAL... Is there a source that really calculates that SAL parameter ...as an integral/mitigation ...then compares it to years past?  or are we just assuming so ...? It's not a knock.. I mean, in the absence of such a source, we work with what we have.  I don't know - I do know that the SAL I've seen has not "looked" very severely pervasive or all that inhibitory. 

I have seen seasons with worse, ...and frequency out there still abounds ...albeit.. coughing and stuggling as they trundle westward down the CV rail service... Going nuts nearing PR.. Anyway, I think therein is also a problem... I recall when in Met school years ago... TW frequency and vitality were both factorable in TC assessments and theh... there also seems to be a dearth in both frequency and wave robustness ... TW are born do to perturbations over the Alps ( ...according to those academic years...) believe it or not... They then dive S and end up absorbed/rotate around the ambient sub-tropical Saharan ridge, and then move back west underneath within the sub-Saharan monsoonal trough... This leads me to ponder whether the pattern over Europe/Eurasia ( believe it or not...) is indirectly related to why there is that apparent dearth.   interesting

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I'm sure you are in part also noticing that though struggled, what development there has been has been home grown - so to speak.

I'm not so sure about the SAL... Is there a source that really calculates that SAL parameter ...as an integral/mitigation ...then compares it to years past?  or are we just assuming so ...? It's not a knock.. I mean, in the absence of such a source, we work with what we have.  I don't know - I do know that the SAL I've seen has not "looked" very severely pervasive or all that inhibitory. 

I have seen seasons with worse, ...and frequency out there still abounds ...albeit.. cough as the trundle westward down the CV rail service...  I think therein is also a problem... I recall when in Met school years ago... TW frequency and vitality were both factorable in TC assessments and theh... there also seems to be a dearth in both frequency and wave robustness ... TW are born due to perturbations over the Alps ( ...according to those academic years...) believe it or not...that rotate around the ambient sub-tropical Saharan and the move back west through the sub-Saharan monsoonal trough... This leads me to ponder whether there pattern over Europe/Eurasia ( believe it or not...) is indirectly related to why there is that apparent dearth.   interesting

Fantastic question, because I usually only think of SAL's dominance through the extent and "strength" of an outbreak. 

I haven't seen a specific SAL parameter, but I've used tropical instability as a proxy. I think that's decent enough? 

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/

2014
y6Tty6T.gif

2015
QzQrVY3.gif

2016
tXGCIfe.gif

 

2017
vy0U0fW.gif

Can't find 2018 but here's 2019. It's definitely not like the others but looks can be deceiving. 
lYD5Ui6.gif

VlISv36.gif

2Vsw5KV.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you have any literature ... preferably links to accredited source work of veracious/reputable form ( to put it nicely...), those that might elucidate/expand more about the bold ( abv) ? 

I've heard of this longer scaled "hidden" curve elsewhere ... but that, including the [apparent] 11, 22 and 300 year resonant solar min and max temporal/causal hypothesis for climate modulation ...all of it, it's harder to just "google" than one would think it should be.  ... man. 

You know how that goes... heh... , go anywhere close to a search-engine that is accessible to the hoi polloi...and you get this tomb of links to doom's day prophets in a trailer park with a satellite dish and every penny ever possessed put into to a lap-top networked with a fully operational Web-server/os... Oh, they've poached various pieces of out-of-context this and that to cobble together support for the end of the world... replete with illustrations of solar storms so powerful ... flesh incinerates off skeletons right before they crumble to piles of bone where the marrow inside isn't even aware the governing body is dead... Ugh... there shit out there about neutron stars careening through the solar-system ... really?  And of course, asteroids boring tunnels clear through the lithosphere and several hundred miles of upper mantle...  I mean, yeah - the probability isn't 0... I guess...

I'm afraid I don't have a peer-reviewed source handy. I don't indulge in such Rapture cult classics as contrails, HAARP weather control and flatardation, so odds are wherever I came across the CME stuff probably merited at least the benefit of a doubt. Wanna say it came up as part of an interview with Sir Roger Penrose, but he's more a pure math/physics guy, so I could be off base. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Hoth said:

I'm afraid I don't have a peer-reviewed source handy. I don't indulge in such Rapture cult classics as contrails, HAARP weather control and flatardation, so odds are wherever I came across the CME stuff probably merited at least the benefit of a doubt. Wanna say it came up as part of an interview with Sir Roger Penrose, but he's more a pure math/physics guy, so I could be off base. 

Funny you mentioned him ...  I'm familiar with him by name, and because of one key relevancy ( to me .. ).

Shortly after having finished writing a science-fiction novel... and it was already contracted and is presently still in pre-press ...  I come to find that the fictional science that is so much a part of the thematic framework of the story... might actually be real - and it was his research into ...well, don't wanna give it away...

The creepy aspect is... I penned that exact same duplicate concept for the story some ten years prior to Penrose et al's paper, the title of which almost to the exact letter is a turn of phrase in the novel... 

In a way ...it should offer the novel some 'special' relevance perhaps?  We'll see... but upon reading his name there I was like...hey - ...or not.. we'll see.   You know... fire was controlled all over the world at almost precisely the same evolutionary time in history - which means, it was not transmitted ( the knowledge ) by migratory information.  It was literally coincidentally discovered - a fascinating aspect of archeology .. I think humanity is just like that... we're all privately postulating aspects that one or two people get to take all the credit for - ha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Funny you mentioned him ...  I'm familiar with him by name, and because of one key relevancy ( to me .. ).

Shortly after having finished writing a science-fiction novel... and it was already contracted and is presently still in pre-press ...  I come to find that the fictional science that is so much a part of the thematic framework of the story... might actually be real - and it was his research into ...well, don't wanna give it away...

The creepy aspect is... I penned that exact same duplicate concept for the story some ten years prior to Penrose et al's paper, the title of which almost to the exact letter is a turn of phrase in the novel... 

In a way ...it should offer the novel some 'special' relevance perhaps?  We'll see... but upon reading his name there I was like...hey - ...or not.. we'll see.   You know... fire was controlled all over the world at almost precisely the same evolutionary time in history - which means, it was not transmitted ( the knowledge ) by migratory information.  It was literally coincidentally discovered - a fascinating aspect of archeology .. I think humanity is just like that... we're all privately postulating aspects that one or two people get to take all the credit for - ha

Congratulations! Let me know when your book hits the press. I'm always game for a good yarn. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Yeah... and while not a declaration of particular support ... I mentioned my self I hadn't noticed a lot in the way of SAL this year... 

I still suggest the real culprit to suppression is the dearth of stronger TW ...The entire length of the sub-Saharan monsoonal trough has been sparsely populated with stronger wave signatures the whole way - so far...

That'... and, we haven't had very good upper tropospheric UVM profiles - ...it's actually consistent with the lowering intrusion of the westerly QBO phase...

These factors can be compensated - haven't yet

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/11/2019 at 12:33 PM, CoastalWx said:

Non existent for SNE this year. Like most years. Doesn’t look like a pattern conducive for a SNE hit or even glance.

Thank you, I am notifying folks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Meh...conjectural... everyone's got an opinion -

NASA/NOAA seemed more remarkable back in June ... I haven't seen anything from official channels lately ...  Typical, people hear something early on and write bible passages over it like it's gospel-causal.   We're still suffering -NAO headlines from the 1990s...

image.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh...conjectural... everyone's got an opinion -

NASA/NOAA seemed more remarkable back in June ... I haven't seen anything from official channels lately ...  Typical, people hear something early on and write bible passages over it like it's gospel-causal.   We're still suffering -NAO headlines from the 1990s...

image.png

where did you get that from...that's pretty cool. 

Anyways I've predominately been following along with this all summer. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting it

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

where did you get that from...that's pretty cool. 

Anyways I've predominately been following along with this all summer. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting it

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html 

That doesn't look any different than any year I've seen it spanning the last 10 frankly... Very similar...   Look at it this way.. the gunk emerging off the New England coast is as potent ... just not as areal in coverage - but you live here...  It's not been a very 'dusty' summer...

I dunno... I suspect that the actual concentration as a scalar value is not very anomalously higher than normal... probably for the last month or so...  Just a hypothesis -

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That doesn't look any different than any year I've seen it spanning the last 10 frankly... Very similar...   Look at it this way.. the gunk emerging off the New England coast is as potent ... just not as areal in coverage - but you live here...  It's not been a very 'dusty' summer...

I dunno... I suspect that the actual concentration as a scalar value is not very anomalously higher than normal... probably for the last month or so...  Just a hypothesis -

Gotcha...I have never really followed tropical much and was using this in conjunction from what I have read...so virtually my being not very knowledgeable (especially with regards to the "climo") makes it difficult to use historical information with what I'm looking at. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Has this been a historically slow season so far or am I perceiving things wrong? I mean not even a low probability hatched area on the five day outlook for days at a time?

Put it this way, hurricane Andrew hadn't even formed by this date in 1992. The Atlantic often gets off to a slow start. But it only takes one.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×