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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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Model trends sure are not getting me excited for any tropical action up here. 

On a side note, what is going on with the death toll in the Bahamas?  Official death toll at 50 for many days.  I'm sure they have gotten some heavy equipment into that  storm surge area of Great Abaco with all those shanties.  From what people were saying on the ground the smell of death is everywhere in the air but nobodies?  Maybe because it was a poor area with a  Haitian population these people somehow don't count.  Just seems like such a disconnect. 1500 missing but the death toll never rises not even by 1 or 2 people. There must be some political reason to keep it low?  

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

I still think this one got a chance.. if this slows down or loops I think it can go up the coast after that.. giving it until Sunday atleast.. 

If the trough wasn't still positive with that funky cut off piece over alabama maybe this could sling it up here.......still seems far enough out that its still possible no?  wouldn't take much?

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12 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I still think this one got a chance.. if this slows down or loops I think it can go up the coast after that.. giving it until Sunday atleast.. 

Agree. Just need it to stall for a week, do a figure 8, and then get picked up ahead of an October trough.

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Don’t worry, We all have hobbies Tip...quite a few fun ones actually.

Nobody here is clinically depressed due to benign/quiet weather.  Some of us are Just throwing it out there, that it’s fun to track and converse about exciting weather that could/looks to impact our backyards.  For the most part, most of us are on this site for the excitement of active weather developing, moving towards and impacting our areas. It’s as plain and simple as that. 

It doesn’t mean we don’t have other things to keep us busy one bit, it just means we enjoy the active times of weather, along with everything else in our lives. 

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57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t worry, We all have hobbies Tip...quite a few fun ones actually.

Nobody here is clinically depressed due to benign/quiet weather.  Some of us are Just throwing it out there, that it’s fun to track and converse about exciting weather that could/looks to impact our backyards.  For the most part, most of us are on this site for the excitement of active weather developing, moving towards and impacting our areas. It’s as plain and simple as that. 

It doesn’t mean we don’t have other things to keep us busy one bit, it just means we enjoy the active times of weather, along with everything else in our lives. 

I am .. this blows!

It's only made worse reading other's holding out optimism for lost cause - ...oh, no one means it, but it rubs it in.. hahaha

J/k...  Yeah, I know... either way, time goes so fast for me - anyways - these days that it'll be next July while I'm waitin' on this winter -

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

EPS with alot of members looping now

Not impossible ?  But I'd still put that as the remoter of possibilities..   I mentioned that myself yesterday or the day before, that it's possible the models are digging the 'capturing' trough to prodigiously... Shallowing that out gives Humberto a tug...instantiating and N then NNE/NE motion only to have it then slow down as said trough skirts away and heights tend to build back in around and moat it off.. .

That could mean a south displacement as a drift if/when something like that were to occur, because these cyclones are like water in the sense that they always move with the flow/path of lowest resistance which would be south in such a scenario ...etc.   After that...  heh, getting it then turn back west and then back N ...thus completing a loop, would require the next trough it the series being well behaved ... and well, long before we got to that sort of reality we have to have all these other things go right first...and it's delicate.  It's really pretty remarkable getting that to happen at all ...let alone guidance correctly depicting it -

I'm just talking about the loop as a behavior mind you... that's all.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not impossible ?  But I'd still put that as the remoter of possibilities..   I mentioned that myself yesterday or the day before, that it's possible the models are digging the 'capturing' trough to prodigiously... Shallowing that out gives Humberto a tug...instantiating and N then NNE/NE motion only to have it then slow down as said trough skirts away and heights tend to build back in around and moat it off.. .

That could mean a south displacement as a drift if/when something like that were to occur, because these cyclones are like water in the sense that they always move with the flow/path of lowest resistance which would be south in such a scenario ...etc.   After that...  heh, getting it then turn back west and then back N ...thus completing a loop, would require the next trough it the series being well behaved ... and well, long before we got to that sort of reality we have to have all these other things go right first...and it's delicate.  It's really pretty remarkable getting that to happen at all ...let alone guidance correctly depicting it -

I'm just talking about the loop as a behavior mind you... that's all.

So kind of what the 18z NAVGEM shows?

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14 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

So kind of what the 18z NAVGEM shows?

No... there's nothing about that solution yesterday that looped - do you know what a looped trajectory looks like?  ...It looks like this:   image.png.e13327402c6fd102eecb1bb8e2c5c7ae.png

I'm not trying to be a wise-ass, but the cyclone literally has to perform a trajectory that does some variation of that -

Looking at that particular model run, 18z NOGAPs or NAVGEM or whatever's its designation...  I don't see that happening so not sure if you understand what we mean by loop

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