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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This home-grown TC in the Euro from 00z ...  now that's one that should be interesting -

It's within 5 days in that particular verification wheelhouse and though that model tends to be stingy with initiation/TCs ...it's actually got a disturbance to latch onto - on going. 

A fairly healthy looking disturbance at that. 

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Actually ... to be fair ... every model has at one time or another, depicted a spin up in that region going back some four days- it's just not been very consistent,  nor did they have the benefit of having an actual disturbance there to lend confidence in anything other than a phantom - it just makes it hard to know 'what' is the real origin.  That's the problem with a fractal factorization running along with any propagated dynamic system - some emergence is legit... others, not so much.

Anyway, I've been looking out over the CV traffic in the models and just like every year between late August onwards ... every guidance has instantiated a different TC at different times, both within their own discontinuities ...and with respect to one another - it's that buck shot time of year in the tropics.   Every seabird's wake vortice seems to trundle off into the history books - 

It's been a good teaser year, though, so far.. Because we have this modeling earnest trough carve-out tendency in the extended at least excuse imaginable going on...and every time that happens... if there happens to be a phantom within grasping range it becomes the pen for the posting author.

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Definitely possible if it stays on the weak side and develops a bit later. Strong models UKMET/ECMWF) develop early from what i can see .

Most of the 12z tropical guidance shifted North with landfall near Jacksonville in about 72 hours. 

FWIW, the 06z GEFS were very unimpressed with a weak storm gradually making it into the Western Gulf.

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