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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

That is gut wrenching. How the heck do you survive that? ughhh :( 

A shanty town is definitely a bad place to be for a storm like that.

I was able to figure out where the first 40 secs of the flight was from some landmarks and they show damage at "The Mudd"

 

Here's a pic of what I guess is are some typical homes in that area.  Not a big surprise they failed entirely.

2019-09-03_191156.jpg

mudd.jpg

 

The more modern looking buildings in the video looked very survivable for the most part.  Hopefully people were able to get out of the shanty town but I assume there were casualties there.

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Just saw a loop of all the NHC forecast cones throughout Dorians life span and it’s track... trying to figure out how to save it and post the loop here, but basically it shows we have a long way to go to predict where these storms are going with any confidence.   Definitely shows why it’s called the “cone of uncertainty.”  

At the same time, the NHC does a phenomenal job but man throughout this storm’s life it’s had a wide variety of possible tracks shown by the models....from over Dominican Republic/Haiti towards Miami, to going north and then hitting Florida from due east and straight into the Gulf of Mexico, to recurving straight up the coast. Intensity forecasts were also sort of all over the place.  

Hurricanes are humbling.  That made a Nor’Easter track look like easy forecasting. 

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