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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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The S/W mechanics slated to time the alley-oop capture of Dorian won't be coming on board into the denser/realized sounding domain until this time tomorrow.  

Subsequently ...depending upon that system's mechanical power will have a bearing on how the flow tips more S-N, or remains more longitudinally biased along and off the Mid Atlantic.

It's a sensi interaction anyway, but the stakes are high; we wouldn't need helluva lot more to get a left'er track N of the Mid Atlantic to materialize... Right now I'd side against that? but it's also preclusively moronic to suggest a stronger relay off the Pac can't take place ... It's popular to roll-eyes and play that defensive game like you're not really hoping that happens ... and forcing an overt conservative facade, but for those who are intelligent, they know it's something that should be monitored.  

It's interesting because this is a predicament more akin to extra-tropical cyclogenesis proficiencies in the winter that we oft need contend with when we have S/W rollin' over shallow long wave amplitudes - such as this.. But only here, we're trying to capture scenario. 

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

No you guys take Dorian and fling his impacts SE of ACK, kick him out to sea, I want to watch football this weekend and not lose power because I know my street will lose power the first 10mph gust that occurs Friday morning.

You’re going to reverse psychology your way into cat 2 winds at this rate. 

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36 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

No you guys take Dorian and fling his impacts SE of ACK, kick him out to sea, I want to watch football this weekend and not lose power because I know my street will lose power the first 10mph gust that occurs Friday morning.

One day without power really got to you ;)

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It’s really hard to say at this point what sizeable impact Dorian will cause here in NS. What has caught my attention the most is the consistency of the GFS over the last few days on the track through the Maritimes.

Yeah you’re not kidding about gfs. It has be pretty focused on a NS direct hit. 18z keeps that theme going. That is concerning. Getting inside 5 days now.
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1 hour ago, Hazey said:


Yeah you’re not kidding about gfs. It has be pretty focused on a NS direct hit. 18z keeps that theme going. That is concerning. Getting inside 5 days now.

There will be a shot at a landfall or scrape jmo. I've been looking at some analogs and general UA and it seems with a partial capture, a bend NNE is on the table. Of course that's an eternity away,  where exactly that occurs and Dorian's condition at the time. A west track would include life partially over land, also over cooler waters later on. a track along the GS would carry a stronger system but the storm would probably not be able to make that latitude.

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