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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

They were renting that one, IIRC.  But they bought a fixer-upper in Park Slope about 30-years ago.  I think they'll do okay when they sell/move in a couple years when they retire. $$$

Park slope houses also generate multi seven figure prices. They will be more than fine if they choose to sell. As always ....

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14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A hugger track is worst case scenario then a landfall over one area, Dorian could rake the whole east coast of FL.

This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC.  It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach.  The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame.

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12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC.  It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach.  The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame.

Where it makes the turn is key, And were just talking several miles at this point that could make significant impacts,East coast still will have to deal with tropical storm winds inland and surge along the coast verbatim, It’s just a dire situation for Florida and hoping for the best as I have several friends in that area and are under the gun. 

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Where it makes the turn is key, And were just talking several miles at this point that could make significant impacts,East coast still will have to deal with tropical storm winds inland and surge along the coast verbatim, It’s just a dire situation for Florida and hoping for the best as I have several friends in that area and are under the gun. 

Most models, including the hurricane models, show the turn already beginning by now, with the eye going N of Grand Bahama Island.  Only the Euro had the eye going across the island part way, but turning NW before getting to Freeport.  Then we have the modeled stall to consider around Freeport.  If that doesn't happen, then all bets are off.

I have relatives in Naples, so they look fairly safe there.

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Semblance of a double eye wall... 

ERC nearing ? 

In any case, one must wonder what the status of Great Abaco island and Grand Bahama will look like when the sun rises over the aftermath ... days from now. 

I wonder if some of those cays might get denuded down to high tide sandbars..

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Just thinking back whence .... as little as two weeks ago, how quiet the tropical Atlantic was. Some observationally sensitive designations to date, otherwise ... at the time rendered completely silent.  Posts were matriculating in about the year without a season - if not explicitly stated, the tenor certainly palpable. 

Now, we have this Category 5 bomb and a constellation of other Invests between the GOM and Cape Verdi... 

It's not just the Atlantic, either.  The western Pacific is suddenly bubbling with Invests, too... It's almost like some phenomenon must have passed over the whole planetary troposphere and proverbially uncapped it everywhere, simultaneously. 

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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Semblance of a double eye wall... 

ERC nearing ? 

In any case, one must wonder what the status of Great Abaco island and Grand Bahama will look like when the sun rises over the aftermath ... days from now. 

I wonder if some of those cays might get denuded down to high tide sandbars..

Here are a few samples.

https://twitter.com/Brendeaaa/status/1168221965473210368/video/1

 

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I think it unlikely Dorian will continue to endure with the same structural integrity as indicated in the 5 am NHC advisory.    (165 mph and 916 mb of central pressure)

Over the course of the day ... it quite possible Dorian will become increasingly victimized by its own impact to the environment in which it depends. 

Interestingly metaphoric, too ... as hurricanes are a lot like Humanity in that regard - they both must keep moving and exploring new resources of/for energy lest they fester and rot in one place for having profligately chewed through their resources.  interesting -  

I realize the impertinent jest of a weakening Dorian must come along as a disappointment equal in proportion to the specter of the bomb its self ... But, for those who privately covet a fantasy where Dorian drills a hole completely thru to the core of the Earth... causing the planet to fracture and calve into two distinct pieces that go on to finally just disintegrate into a new asteroid belt, the reality is, the cyclone is nearly stationary over a region where the sea slopes deeply on the N side of Grand Bahama and Great Abaco. That steeper, deeper incline probably means cooler water plumb is accessing due to upwelling/ turbulent overturning etc. 

We'll "sea" how it goes but I bet this thing has maxed -

 

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Id probably go 45/35/20 for landfall probs in NL, NS, and out to sea. Theres still a lot of lowering of heights in Atlantic Canada ahead of Dorian that make me hesitant to believe in the further west tracks like the gfs and the ukmet even with the partial phase from the clipper out of eastern Canada. 

 

 

ecmwf-namer-z500_anom-7814400.png

gfs-namer-z500_anom-7814400.png

6_es1.png

0_es3 (10).png

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