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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What do we know about that HMON model ?

It's clearly some form or another of a meso model, but I don't have much experience with using it as a prediction tool.

The 12z run took a strong Cat 4 across the northern borrows of Miami - pretty much exactly in a fashion I feared might happen yesterday when it appeared then a sharper west turn and farther south trajectory could unfold - reasoning contained...

It might be notable that a lot of guidance has been edging left, too.  Oper. Euro and so forth.

Its the old gfdl. 

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HWRF
A hurricane model? 18z has a ~915mb. PLEASE make it STOP.
Tomorrow is a big model day, to say the least. I'm loaded for BEAR,  propane topped-off, Generac ready to crank.
My Davis took a "hit" a few week back. Td and wind speed not recording, thinking it took a lightning strike.
Back-up is a TWI-8000. Ah I've been wanting to seat for months now. No strength, still in a-fib. Recovery has been to slow for my liking. Figures that a possible storm of a lifetime and just my luck.
Made arrangements today with my neighbor to get it installed Saturday.
I'd prefer not to hear the whistle of the wind. You get up about 85-90mph the pitch and roar increases, the crackling of tree limbs snapping followed by a dull thud only to find out it missed 30ft and fell away from the house. You get into D4 without then you never want to experience again.
As depicted now regardless of exact landfall the forest is going to lose many a tree thus extending the isolation. Probably more than a week!         

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11 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

HWRF
A hurricane model? 18z has a ~915mb. PLEASE make it STOP.
Tomorrow is a big model day, to say the least. I'm loaded for BEAR,  propane topped-off, Generac ready to crank.
My Davis took a "hit" a few week back. Td and wind speed not recording, thinking it took a lightning strike.
Back-up is a TWI-8000. Ah I've been wanting to seat for months now. No strength, still in a-fib. Recovery has been to slow for my liking. Figures that a possible storm of a lifetime and just my luck.
Made arrangements today with my neighbor to get it installed Saturday.
I'd prefer not to hear the whistle of the wind. You get up about 85-90mph the pitch and roar increases, the crackling of tree limbs snapping followed by a dull thud only to find out it missed 30ft and fell away from the house. You get into D4 without then you never want to experience again.
As depicted now regardless of exact landfall the forest is going to lose many a tree thus extending the isolation. Probably more than a week!         

stay safe......still time left models everywhere

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HMON has a 3-hour intensification rate of 10 mb by 20+ knots of wind... dropping from just under 970 mb to the upper 950s with wind from 99 knots to 121.  And it doesn't stop there.  Another three hours and it's down to 950 mb by 130 knots!  

That's ah ... heh.  The only problem is ... it has it doing that now - which it isn't.   Interesting...  I mean it may be intensifying, it's the rate though.

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Looks like Dorian may miss Florida.   I had not paid any attention to the storm for us New Englanders but just looked at the Euro and it has Dorian as a 950mb cane just barely off Cape Hatteras to SE of the benchmark to about Eastport Maine.   Just close enough for James to honk a little.   Should be some nice surf on south facing beaches next week

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