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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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14 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

A few days ago in one of the other threads, i saw some of our mets posting about an north east turn and Dorian was not going to hit FL. I can't remember who all was posting that, but i do remember DIT chiming in and saying no turn, Dorian is heading straight for FL. Interesting now to see the newest model runs hinting at that recurve...we shall see

Based on what just happened with Puerto Rico a turned certainly can't be ruled out. Looks like this idea is related to the forward speed of Dorian. the 12z guidance though has a pretty strong clustering with this though. Steering flow looks to bring it right into FL too...but any weaknesses within the upper pattern could certainly change things.

05L_tracks_12z.png

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Not a great swell producer for Long Island and New England. 

Its an issue of fetch more so then strength. The tiny size just isn’t going to cut it for creating much swell with periods over 12 seconds. Any captured fetch will be aimed towards the SE. I still think we see some swell with sets to maybe 5-6’ for south facing beaches. But with swell periods below 13 seconds beach washovers and erosion seems unlikely. 

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I don't think such a scenario is completely outlandish...as crazy as that looks...maybe not to that extent but look at the upper pattern...there are no real troughs or fronts which move through...there isn't anything to steer it. The upper flow aloft also looks to generate some weaknesses and it gets captured. 

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13 minutes ago, Modfan said:

As currently modeled I look to take a direct hit, and not any fun like DIT would think. Lots of stress between work and getting house shuttered. Hoping future models are further N or S of current track.

Check out the UKMET it has been nailing the track so far. It also has a second LF near Pensacola at 902 , dont know about that.....

Screenshot_20190829-135445_Chrome.jpg

IMG_20190829_135514.jpg

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think such a scenario is completely outlandish...as crazy as that looks...maybe not to that extent but look at the upper pattern...there are no real troughs or fronts which move through...there isn't anything to steer it. The upper flow aloft also looks to generate some weaknesses and it gets captured. 

Looking at the ensembles it looks highly unlikely. It is just really tough to sneak a storm into New England coming up from the southeast US like that. I can see Canada happening though.

AL05_2019082912_GEFS_large.png

AL05_2019082900_ECENS_large.png

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30 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Looking at the ensembles it looks highly unlikely. It is just really tough to sneak a storm into New England coming up from the southeast US like that. I can see Canada happening though.

AL05_2019082912_GEFS_large.png

AL05_2019082900_ECENS_large.png

oh yeah...I think into SNE is unlikely...but re-strengthening over the Atlantic and making additional landfall across the mid-Atlantic coast somewhere is certainly possible. 

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What do we know about that HMON model ?

It's clearly some form or another of a meso model, but I don't have much experience with using it as a prediction tool.

The 12z run took a strong Cat 4 across the northern borrows of Miami - pretty much exactly in a fashion I feared might happen yesterday when it appeared then a sharper west turn and farther south trajectory could unfold - reasoning contained...

It might be notable that a lot of guidance has been edging left, too.  Oper. Euro and so forth.

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