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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Concerned about Miami  ...  

Here's the deal - 

Dorian is likely to exceed expectations for intensity guidance.  I've just seen this kind of beat before...where the models don't even initialize a system beyond depression, when it reality it's nearing hurrican strength ...yet they still collectively suggest near rapid intensification is plausible.    It's moving up into a region that is going to be nothing but improving for TC structure/genesis.  It seems the models are tapping into the former circumstance proficiently enough, but are not accessing the inertia Dorian already has established.   That's is troublesome...  

But mostly, it is the excessive thermal cline integration of ocean heat content it is moving toward, combine with superior shear - lack there off - that should have folks' attention. 

The reason this sticks Miami out like a sore thumb - despite the present concensus N of that latitude, is because strong/strengthening hurricanes gaining size, can synergistically enhance resistance to polarward motion because they "create their own environment."  Basically what is taking place when that happens is ... the outflow ring of the cyclone begins to elevate surface pressure...as well as breaks down steering fields on the polarward size of the cyclone, and the tracks can sometimes bend back west when that happens.  It may not be statistically entirely obvious that is what is happening, either, because of the surrounding synoptics are strong enough those forcing will damp the effect out - it's more like an effectiveness when other factors are relatively negligible, the cane will moot its self/tend to do so..

I see Dorian moving into an environment of superior development, that is breaking down synoptically ...which might render it to a west bump out there in time.   Something to think about. 

I lived in S Fl for a long while 

they have been exponentially lucky in Broward and South Palm beach county for 50 years . 5-0

So much money along the water. Super wealth 

Do you believe this will expand significantly in size or remain rather small until a possible landfall 

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I lived in S Fl for a long while 

they have been exponentially lucky in Broward and South Palm beach county for 50 years . 5-0

So much money along the water. Super wealth 

Do you believe this will expand significantly in size or remain rather small until a possible landfall 

I was in Coral Gables (freshman year at UMiami) for Andrew.  It was crazy, but it isn't too populous as you go south from there.  Can't imagine something close to that into FTL/Boca/West Palm.  Disaster.....

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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Such a strong forecast turn at a longitude as Far East as forecast leaves a lot of room for error imo . Maybe models will be consistent next 48 on Strenth of ridge but also where this does its turn 

Hope your right; I sit 45 miles south of Vero Beach and stress level about a 100! 

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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I lived in S Fl for a long while 

they have been exponentially lucky in Broward and South Palm beach county for 50 years . 5-0

So much money along the water. Super wealth 

Do you believe this will expand significantly in size or remain rather small until a possible landfall 

Expansion in size is a slam dunk... 

In fact, I was just noticing the extraordinarily massive spacial layout in west Atlantic, N and NE of Dorian, that as modeled is setting up a truly massive low level easterly anomaly. Given what is happening along with deep layer ridge pulsation during Dorian quasi hook back west ( SW of NS ) that combination of those two factors really just creates a particularly massive region conducive to cyclogenesis spread out over the entire region off the eastern Seaboard... Sandy did something similar but this is not to be consider an analog. 

Expanding in size and intensify.  I could see this having a tendency to generate an outer eye-wall given to this totality of events, but that's just because if the circulation grows immense that tends to happen. EWR's are not well understood...

The idea of involving more of S. Florida in surge is predicated on the assumption that Dorian does indeed "synergistically" feedback with strong systems in light steering environment.  Since Dorian appears slated to both destinies... I just thought it prudent to mention - but it's not actually modeled to do so.  As is, a trajectory as planned put S. Florida/Miami most likely in a N freshening breeze that starts to go storm force in a NW or off-shore component, which of course is a different impact scenario altogether. 

 

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I was in Coral Gables (freshman year at UMiami) for Andrew.  It was crazy, but it isn't too populous as you go south from there.  Can't imagine something close to that into FTL/Boca/West Palm.  Disaster.....
I was 5 miles from country walk in Kendall, Andrew was amazing but the after effects horrific.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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I was 5 miles from country walk in Kendall, Andrew was amazing but the after effects horrific.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yessir...I stayed on campus for a couple days, then they closed it and encouraged everyone to go home for a couple weeks. I had to get a ride to FLT airport at 5:00 am thru a curfew. Fun stuff Classes didn't started until later in Sept.
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37 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:
1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:
I was 5 miles from country walk in Kendall, Andrew was amazing but the after effects horrific.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yessir...I stayed on campus for a couple days, then they closed it and encouraged everyone to go home for a couple weeks. I had to get a ride to FLT airport at 5:00 am thru a curfew. Fun stuff Classes didn't started until later in Sept.

I was south of the curfew/limited access area.  Had to go through military checkpoints to get home  I lived at the Crossing which is at 112st..lots of destruction being in the northern eyewall

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Euro Has not run but I Am very interested in where the turn west  occurs

alllnensembles turned Dorian South of 26.5 N (unless im reading map wrong )

inbelieve models underdo the quickness of the turn as well as when they’ve sniffed out a slight WSW dip it also tends to be underdone on modeling

Equally concerning is the stall on CMC\UkMET on 0z models just inland . That throws a wrench in 

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5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro Has not run but I Am very interested in where the turn west  occurs

alllnensembles turned Dorian South of 26.5 N (unless im reading map wrong )

inbelieve models underdo the quickness of the turn as well as when they’ve sniffed out a slight WSW dip it also tends to be underdone on modeling

Equally concerning is the stall on CMC\UkMET on 0z models just inland . That throws a wrench in 

Need to know how strong that High is near Bermuda and positioning as well

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I have a hypothetical and I wonder if I can get some opinions. My great uncle lives in Sarasota just off the beach. His house is at best a few feet above sea level. If Dorian ends up plowing straight through central Florida and emerges into the Gulf around the Tampa area, Sarasota would have a strong onshore wind. Does anyone here believe it could be strong enough to pose a coastal flooding threat? I'm inclined to think this is a stretch, but I really don't know. 

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A few days ago in one of the other threads, i saw some of our mets posting about an north east turn and Dorian was not going to hit FL. I can't remember who all was posting that, but i do remember DIT chiming in and saying no turn, Dorian is heading straight for FL. Interesting now to see the newest model runs hinting at that recurve...we shall see

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