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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


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3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Tropical depression 5 ...forecast to become a hurricane as it crosses NE Caribbean 

that is an example of the POLITICS of forecasting . Caribbean  Looks hostile l and would be lucky to make it thru as Tropical storm but IMO bc it’s close to islands Stewart is going with HRFW? And Cat 1. Good luck 

5pm   Hello Tropical Storm Dorian

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15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

98L is the East Coast threat we have been talking about.  It has a large surface circulation that remains broad and not well-defined quite yet.  However, convection is centralized and I believe 90L in the central Northern Gulf is organizing.

98L looks ots and weak.  90L is a pointless invest. 

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

98L is the East Coast threat we have been talking about.  It has a large surface circulation that remains broad and not well-defined quite yet.  However, convection is centralized and I believe 90L in the central Northern Gulf is organizing.

Something is going to hit the east coast this summer 

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Wondering if that NAM's "Predecessor Rain Event" should be taken seriously or not. 

In one school, the NAM tends to over-emphasize the NW influence of cyclonic events as a general bias tendency, over the far west and northwest Atlantic, concerning extra-tropical cyclones.  Not sure if that also is true for weakly bounded and/or developing TCs that are in the process of being sucked up into the westerlies. 

Right now, TD 6 looms out there.  It has the old single tilted CB look, with shearing going on from the N clearly suggestive via various satellite channels.  But, there is a coherent llv closed circulation and it sets proximal to deep oceanic heat content that is clearly coupled to the lower troposphere ...so given any relaxation at all, that system ( I would not be surprised) may get better organized at a proficient rate.  This would be a short window of opportunity - although, in a lowering SRS inside the westerly channeling blah blah.   In any case, as it is moving up about 400 km or so east of the mid Atlantic, we see a NAM QPF eruption/banded in a quasi arc extending roughly mid Long Island to NE Mass. That's pretty textbook "PRE," as they tend to occur on the polar side of TCs that are in the processes of recurving into the westerlies. That definition doesn't really discuss or limit the event based upon how well structure the the involved TC is - so the extend of organization may not mater. 

I'm not sure the NAM is very trustworthy in this specific area of deterministic weather forecasting - I'm guessing no?  But it is by definition a meso model so -

 

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2 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

Give it some time. Here is the high-resolution output for the PRE (Predecessor Rainfall Event) from 18z NAMNEST.

NAMNSTMA_prec_radar_030.png.ca90c4bba2a8a28fbb22c1e34a189394.png

Edit: JMA is a double SNE-special from TD6 and Dorian.

 

 

Intensity busts as well as near stationary cyclones, etc. other factors still display the weaknesses of today's models.

Watching this weak TD curve 350mi. SE of Nantucket is boring, though

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