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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019


Torch Tiger
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Cranky is all over this and has been 

2 weeks ado he said most significant shot besides a weak TD on SW periphery of Atlantic high (as they round corner ) will be. Something near the east coast approaching Sept 1 as maybe some sort of hybrid storm from remnants of a front 

Not any Mets I follow have  seen anything that justifies NHC recent upgrade to seasonal totals 

 

quickly regarding crankywxguy Not anticipating much but after people bad mouthed the guy so much , I took a look at him and his archived forecasts. He nailed the i-95 winter minus the freak 16” bomb coastal that overperformed and he has been all over tropics as well as all over the summer pattern for i-95 as well

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The disturbance in the Bahamas has a spin to it right now, but can't tell if it is at the low to mid-levels.  Convection is spread out currently.  Not a conducive position currently to develop.  Convection would have to become more concentrated with time.  I don't think this is the same system the global models show blowing up off the SE US coast by Labor Day, it could be another wave.

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29 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Wow that Chantal development must be a bit of a surprise given the percentages and it’s latitude?

I don't think it's anything too extraordinary. It's been riding along the Gulf Stream. Also, being caught up in the westerlies I think lessens effective shear. There was a hurricane that held cat 4 strength some years back in that area. Forget which one it was, but that was something to behold.

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14 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I don't think it's anything too extraordinary. It's been riding along the Gulf Stream. Also, being caught up in the westerlies I think lessens effective shear. There was a hurricane that held cat 4 strength some years back in that area. Forget which one it was, but that was something to behold.

 

494px-Alex_2004-08-05.jpg

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On 8/18/2019 at 8:41 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cranky is all over this and has been 

2 weeks ado he said most significant shot besides a weak TD on SW periphery of Atlantic high (as they round corner ) will be. Something near the east coast approaching Sept 1 as maybe some sort of hybrid storm from remnants of a front 

Not any Mets I follow have  seen anything that justifies NHC recent upgrade to seasonal totals 

 

quickly regarding crankywxguy Not anticipating much but after people bad mouthed the guy so much , I took a look at him and his archived forecasts. He nailed the i-95 winter minus the freak 16” bomb coastal that overperformed and he has been all over tropics as well as all over the summer pattern for i-95 as well

How was his Hurricane Michael forecast

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7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

He's terrible. I can nail a winter if I say minus this storm or that storm. I've seen his tweets and forecasts.

Lots of hate 

he did very well last winter

nobody is minusing a storm, nobody had 12”+ 24 hours out for The little Nuke...I mean please

i dont read tweets, I don’t even enjoy typing the word, I read his blog, nobody is worshipping lol

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